Olerud363

Taking into account how much low cost (teen burger) and high cost (house) items have gone up since Prince Fielder signed in 2012 how much is Vlad worth when you approach that way?

We'll see what happens. Orioles have a new owner and this off season will be the first one for him I believe. They are in incredible payroll shape. Attendance is trending up. With some playoff success and/or a run of 90 win seasons they will approach 3 million again. And what is this about the Oriole fan boys? I know of no Oriole fans on this board, just people who think the Orioles have done a great job... which is different than being a fan. When Donald Trump got Kanye West and Jim Brown and Kim Jong Un together for a multi-racial-multi-national peace conference (I may be mixing 2 events together), I said 'Donald is doing a good job'... did it mean I was an alt-right nut-MAGA fan? No. I am to the left of Ralph Nader, just when Donald did good I acknowledged it, just as when the Orioles do good I acknowledge them... nothing to do with being a fan of either. (not political, just an example needed to explain why praising Orioles, does not mean you are an Orioles fan). Anyway Orioles are about where Astros were in 2016... we'll see how they play this going forward.

I bet he values himself not at 2021/2024 level, but at his best 4 month run within those seasons. And the argument his agents will try for is that the real Vlad is at that level, and batted ball bad luck and temporary (but fixed) mechanical problems knocked his numbers down.

I don't personally think that Vlad is at the level of Soto, I am just thinking about in terms of 'the market' which when you get down to it is what 2 or 3 teams think of Vlad... The 70 walks a year are worth a lot on the baseball field, but how much are the worth in contract negotiations ? Seems to me like Vlad vs Soto is the perfect storm in terms of how a player gets over or under rated. 1. Per 162 games they have the same traditional stats (something like .285 32 100) 2. Soto walks 70 times more. 3. Soto isn't a great baserunner or defensive player, but he's better than Vlad and it adds up, but does it add up in contract value? 4. Vlad has a couple of unbelievable 3-4 month runs, and mind blowing minor league stats which may make some team pay a bit more for ceilling. 5. Vlad puts more hard hit balls in play than any player in baseball and is a very slight launch angle tweak from another level (same may be true for Soto actually). So what contract does at that lead to?

If nothing changes the league will hit .230 in 2030. I don't think this will happen. One or both of two things will change. 1. Commissioner intervenes with new rules 2. Turns out John Kasevitch can hit .275 in this environment, which is really good in a league that hits .235, and more Kasevitch's start getting playing time. Like some 'no-power-bro' team hit's .260 .330 .390 and score 720 runs, which is enough these days and the trends start reversing a bit.

Gallo had 4.4 WAR in 2021, as a .199 hitting good outfielder with 38 homeruns in a league that hit .245 The league now hits .240. If that trend continues the league will hit .235 in 3 years. .230 in 6 when Nimmala is entering his prime. So could Nimmala hit .190 but have a great season. Yes. ( as an aside Joey Gallo had more power at 18 than Nimmala and better overall stats. He already was hitting 60 homers per 162 games and he matured at more like 40 per 162, anecdotally the guys who hit 5 homers in 100 games with 90 ks can grow their power, but the guys who hit 20 homers in 100 games with 150 ks have to tone it back.. generalization and maybe not true).

The comment I made about Nimmala was interesting and literally true. If he develops the same way as many major league players, including Lindor and Betts, he will literally be a .190 hitter with 70+ homers... Implicit in my comment is that... no. That won't happen likely, as there hasn't been many .190 hitters with extreme power in mlb history. So what will happen? We don't really know because there isn't hardly any players like this. People can find a couple, maybe Gunnar Henderson, Interesting thing is a Gunnar Henderson season at 23, isn't too different than a Francisco Lindor season at 23 or 24... though at 20 and 21 they looked very different. Also interesting is the general trends in the game. And implicit in my comment is that what we are seeing from Nimmala has to be judged in context of pitching trends, we assume velocity and strike-outs are trending higher at all levels so A-ball stats are probably different than they were 10 years ago. Also interesting is that if trends continue a .190 hitter with awesome power, walks, and great defense could be a 6 WAR player or something. Davis Schneider is like a 1 WAR player hitting .200 with average baserunning and defense, and average power. We assume my comment is silly because we assume that MLB will have to intervene somehow if the .240 mlb average get's much worse. Also an interesting discussion.

Lindor like a lot of guys had no power in the minors... 6 homers in 120 games when he was Nimmala's age 30 hr power when he matured in the majors. If Nimmala get's the same of power boost as he matures he will hit 90 homers someday... Nimmala 2029 MVP - .190 .295 .690 12 singles 14 doubles 11 triples, 90 homeruns 325 strike-outs, awesome defense, 10 WAR in a league that scores 3.5 runs a game.

I'm just a fangraphs casual according to fangraphs though Howritz isn't s***... is D-score is OK even getting knocked down by playing DH once and a while. I guess the other D systems must not like Howritz at second... but it is really stupid they took him off second in 2024. That was actually the bad part. No problem taking him off second 2025 depending how the roster shakes. I liked the Howritz at 2nd, Vlad at 3rd because it was kindof progressive. Like the theory of defense is (within some limits) a player is the same at every position. Of course there are opportunity of hard plays but... 1. A guy like Vlad might score similarly at third and 1st, because his arm will allow him to make plays on all the balls he gets to (no question he will be limited in range, but that happens at both positions). 2. A guy like Horwitz with good hands and presumably good hand eye might be a very good defensive 1b men, and a mediocre 2b... but his d-score will be similar at each. So when making a team maybe Vlad is 4 WAR, and Horwitz 2.5 WAR at both positions they can play... and in a lost year you should keep them both active to maintain flexibility in the offseason.

Did he expand on this? Based on what? Basically it is a try out now... so not playing 'well'. But not playing right? Like Loperfido and Addison Barger are 'not playing well' in some respects despite obvious 'fast twitch' talent, but not playing 'right'? Wagner, Clemente, Howritz are better despite not the greatest bat speed and tools I guess. Playing good enough. Are they playing right? The bullpen? Just a bunch off the scrap heap and no diamonds really found, and Chad Green lost it. Not playing well. But not playing right? Starting rotation is pretty amazing actually all things considered. Weakness may be they aren't flame throwers. Playing well. Playing right. Limited perhaps in velocity. That has nothing to do with 'playing right' though. They do the best they can with what they have, which is often very good. The vets? Springer, Varsho, Guerrero? Perhaps the latter clowns around too much... but c'mon. Making it kind of fun for the young guys in a relaxed time where winning isn't everything. Not playing well? No s*** Sherlick. Not playing right? Please expand mr. Heyman.

Some of that is the DH is no longer used in NL. AL only runs scored is the same as 1988. That was the first year I started watching and I remember Rance Mullinicks. Don't know his exit Velocities but they probably sucked. Rance got to hit .300 with 9 homers a few times anyway. They didn't even let poor Rance play against lefties. Cecil Fielder probably had totally awesome exit V but nobody gave a s***, which turned out pretty brutal when old Rance and old Pat Tabler had to DH in '91 instead of Cecil Fielder and his (likely) 118 mph top exit V. (don't blame for this 90s Blue Jays rant, this other guy brought it up, and the topic is 1993, 2024 and reasons for the differences...)

I was joking that Nimalla projects to hit .190 but good news is .190 with power, a few walks, and playing a good short stop will be a 5 WAR player by 2028 when the league average will be .220 or something... Might not be joking.

It's like 2 types of randomness... Randomness of true talent .260 hitter... if simulated true talent .260 hitter over 100, 200, 1000, 6500 at bats what level of variance is expected? Then randomness of change in true talent level. Like .260 hitter gets good hitting tip, now .280 hitter... like obese .240 hitter goes for the Ozempic, now .280 hitter... Like team finds sign stealing scheme, or undetectable steroid (a.k.a. women's health products) provider... now true talent level randomly changes for reason, but random reason (like they meet right steroid dealer by random chance)

Maybe if they had low variance power hitters like Matt Olson or Pete Alonso it all would have been OK. The expectation of number of hits from Bo/Kirk/Vlad if hits came randomly gets more stable with more at bats. An entire team can get crushed by randomness, but like random injuries, not like random variability of 6500 PAs... if you simulated it, while individual players would have amazing highs and lows (like a true talent .300 hitter can be .250 or .350 by luck) that would stabalize a lot more over 6500 PAs compared to 650. That's if Random. If non-random, like Covid outbreak, bad hitting tips, too much partying... or maybe opposing team has to scout only one type of hitter.... but that is non-random.

No. Because batting average is still variable for the power hitter. Guerrero, Vladimir, Jr. Power ranges from lots (48) to some (26) Average ranges from happy (.320) to not as happey (.260) WAR ranges from 1 to 6 Variability. Like the variance. Like highs and lows. Happens to the power hitters just as much.

Aaeraz has better wRC+ than Ichiro. Arraez is a better hitter than Ichiro if you compare their first 5 seasons in the big leagues. The difference is entirely defense and baserunning. 2001 Ichiro had a .360 wOBA. 2023 Arraez had a .369 wOBA. The sucky version of Arraez (2024) is a better hitter than sucky Ichiro (2005) or so. Like when they hit .350 Arraez is a better hitter. When they hit .310 Arraez is a better hitter. That is because Arraez plays in a tougher league. But Ichiro is 3-5 WAR better at baserunning and defense (lol).

Aaraez doesn't quite work as an MLB player because his defense is the same as the obese version of Vlad Jr. Kwan must be hitting about .100 the last couple months or something as his average has cratered. Spencer is doing OK but haven't seen a full season yet. Not saying these low bat speed players are working quite.... just that there are hints they could work.

There was a fangraphs article recently about Kwan and Luis Aaraez and how extreme their approach is. Both have like the lowest bat speed in the majors and never swing hard. Now we see Spencer. Spencer doesn't swing that hard I do not think. Spencer doesn't hit the ball super-hard... I mean for an MLB player. Maybe average or a bit below. Spencer launches them at 101 mph, sometimes he pulls dat ball. Sometimes not. But he has hit 420 foot homers off of 102 mph exit V. There are some hints that mlb players can be successful without elite exit V. In Howritz, Clemente, Kasevitch, Wagner, and Roden, Jays have a collection of guys that could hit .270. Couldn't they? If they all found defensive homes, that is like a cheap supplementary group to a couple of stars. The "money-ball inefficiency" these days, might be some of these players who look like they belong in 1988... but the math still works. If you score 765 runs 1988 style the runs still count. It's more a question of could these guys hit .270 as a group (which is a very good average for 2024) or would modern baseball kick their nuts in, they'd hit .240 and not find defensive homes anyway.

1993 was the start of the steroid era with a big jump in runs scored. The current runs per game is similar to 1988 to 1992 (around 4.3). Except there are 40% more homers and twice as many strikeouts and the batting average is 20 points lower. Who knows what Spencer Horwitz will be long term, but last couple years in Buffalo he was a .335 hitter with 10 homer power, know in the majors he is a .270 hitter with 20 homer power.

4.71 runs per game in 1993, 4.33 now. Mathematically it is better to hit for a higher average and get on base more, even if sacrificing a lot of power. All the 'no power bros' would be good major league players if they hit .280 .340 .400 even. Problem is something is preventing things drifting to the optimal run scoring state, that is a little bit higher average at the expense of power. The pitching and defense is too good now maybe.

Before the 'sabermetrics' and big contract era so many guys lost years of their career both at beginning and end. Barfield was like a better version of George Springer, but lost at bats early in his career and career ended early. If Barfield played 20 years later would have had 500-1000 more games. I don't know for sure what Barfield's injury situation was at the end. However if he came up 20 years later probably would have played more at the beginning, been appreciated more (in 89 and 90 he was a 4 WAR player, but treated like a has-been), and probably signed a multi year deal after his big mid 80s years, then would have been given a chance to work through the injuries. Like Springer may get 3 extra years over Barfield. Same with Joe Carter who was the same age and replaced him in a round about way... Carter was never injured but allowed to play like crap for 4 years, while Barfield was home Barbequing because no one knew about WAR.

Along those lines Jays have a massive collection of guys who will be around 24 to 27 and may have their best year in 2025 and get paid league minimum. Howritz, Clemente, Schneider, Barger, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, Jiminez, that's 8 guys, who could be the 2025 version of 2015 Kevin Pillar/Ryan Goins/Devon Travis. Like these guys may not have long careers but next year is the year you could get something out of them for very cheap. Maybe some of them get traded for bullpen help.

Tony Batista, Jose Cruz, Alex Rios, and even EE were all released or put on Waivers and given away for nothing, because of perceived bad contract or arb value. I think owners benefit because players are often underpaid, and if you get the odd case (good counting stats, or 1 or 2 outlier good years) that is overpaid, owners can just release the guy.

If he had another 1 WAR season in 2024 with OK counting stats he would have got 25 million, but even if he hits 7 WAR this year with a hot finish he will get like low 30s.... System is a bit messed.

Soto is .282 35 100 per 162, Vlad .288 32 100 Not really sure how big the recency bias is. Vlad won his case and got almost 20 million coming off of a .265 26 95 1 WAR season so be interesting to see what they ask for off of this much better season.