Olerud363

Do you mean 9 2012 Melky Cabrerras?? I don't know if there has ever been a team that hit like that. Maybe something from the 30s (edit, I meant 30s that's the era of high averages). 9 "career" Melky's would score about 750 runs or so. I did a quick look at bbref to find teams that hit as "career" Melky does, .280 .335 .410 or so. There were actually a few from 83 that were close (that's one of the first years I checked, I'm sure one could find tonnes of them if they looked). An interesting year as if you order the teams by batting average the top four all look very "career Melky" like. All scored between 760 and 795 runs. A good but not amazing total for 2010s AL East. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/1983.shtml

Just because something isn't statistically significant doesn't mean it "doesn't matter". If I get hit by a car it's not statistically significant, it doesn't increase the chances you'll get hit by a car, but it matters to me. If Melky hits .320 over .270 it matters... it means probably a couple of extra wins for the Blue Jays. Is it statistically significant?? A little bit. Not huge. To construct a baseball team you have to assign value to every assett. You have to devise a system to acquire those assetts. You can't say "I don't care if a player hits .320 or .270" it doesn't matter. It sure as hell does matter. The team is constructed through a series of small decisions. In order to make those decisions you have to assign values to every skill. You have to assign a value to the difference between a .320 hitter and a .270 hitter, you have to assign values to all kinds of different players, the .320 hitter vs. the .270 hitter with power... the .220 hitter whos a defensive wiz, and so on and so on. In the end the players one acquires will not perform as predicted, but you have to hope that the errors even out. But to begin the process of designing a team you need a system to value players. And batting average is part of that.

I am fascinated by this... you make a snarky over-confident math comment and you really should apolagize to society for it.. but of course you won't. So you'll never give up. This is funny. You are now forever destined to make stupider and stupider comments because there is no way out of this for you without losing face. I actually kind of suspect you're a reasonably intelligent kid who just screwed up. You realize your mistake but now you can't get out of it. Kindof funny. You state 50 points of batting average doesn't matter. There is no difference between .320 and .270 on a weekly basis. logically then There is no difference between .270 and .220 on a weekly basis. So There is no difference between .320 and .220 on a weekly basis. Is that correct?? Or at some point to the differences actually become significant?? At what point?? If not 50 points of batting average then 75?? 100?? 200?? Using your math skills please let me know.

?? I am confused how R.A. Dickey got into this ?? Not sure I said anything about him. If Dickey could perform at a 2010-2012 level he would help a team. But according to your philosaphy even if Dickey performed well it shouldn't of matterred. I mean if we average it out the difference between Dickey 2012 and Dickey 2013 is what... about a walk or two and 1/2 a homer a week? That's nothing. The Dickey trade was meaningless in your logical system, because like any other move when you look at it on a weekly basis the small differences are insignificant. Dickey or Yu Darvish, or Ubalda Jiminez, or Kyle Lohse. The difference between these guys are a hit or two, an extra base or two a week. It's nothing. When you look at it on a weekly basis none of it matters, the differences are so small.

Good point. I was being overly negative in my last post about Lawrie and didn't explain myself well. As a hitter I suspect he's comparable to Kelly Gruber. If healthy I think he would put up some decent years, .275 guy, .330 on base, some power. Like Gruber he could pop 30 in a good year and contend for an MVP if given enough rbi opportunities. But injuries not only mean missed time, but missed development time, and poorer performance when "healthy". So my fear for Lawrie is that he gets to where Gruber got to in 92, without ever having the good years Gruber did from 88 to 90.

You could actually baby AND have a smaller bullpen. It would require having a starter go 5, and a reliever go 3, and having a manager not obsess about matchups. So if you had a boatload of young pitchers, which before the trades we would of been looking at in 2014/15, you could probably do this. Mark Eichorn once went 14-6 and almost won an era title as a reliever. Missed by a couple innings. Would be very interesting to see a young pitcher brought along like that. Maybe not worked quite as hard, but 50 outings, a few starts, 120 innings seems reasonable.

Keep in mind that the "structural change" coincided with a period of steroid use and we don't know yet how resilient the structural change will be to the (presumed) discontinuation of the steroid use.

When I first started following baseball in the late 80s there were 5 men bullpens and platoons all over the place. So I have seen teams where this would of been a viable option. But even on this team you could use Boni in center to spell Rasmus. I still believe teams could use a smaller bullpen effectively, even as a means to bring along young pitchers successfully with a lot of middle relief innings (50 appearances 100 innings type seasons), another topic I guess.

Your correct. Given their career rates it is actually .260. Sniders career rates against righties are nothing special. Neither are Melky's career rates. Melky 2011/2012 is incredibly better because he hits .320. I've conceded that point. If Melky hits .320 that's great. That's what started this whole argument. If Melky hits .280 it's a different story. Especially if he only hits 6 homers. .320 with 15 homers is way different then .280 with 6 homers. It just seems that people on this thread don't get that. Snider is fat and bad so far in his career-- point conceded. Melky is fat and bad until 2011 -- ?? Not sure people concede this point. Melky 2013 is fat with bad hamstrings and so/so ?? Not sure if people have condeded this either. Rajai is often bad - but Rajai 2013 is OK -- Snider 2013 is OK to. Snider + Rajai 2013 is not much different then Melky 2013. 2013 is not over. It is 1/3 over. This is just something worth watching. I stand by my previous commentary. Neither is successful right now given what we expect from a corner outfielder. Both are about the same. This can change. Melky's path to be better is to hit for a higher average, Snider's path is to show the power we always dreamed on. Will either of these happen?? I don't know we will have to see. Just things to watch.

Great logic bud. By that logic almost any baseball move is statistically insignificant. So you are saying that the logic that applies to an entire team doesn't apply to individuals?? Any individual move will always be insignificant using your logic. This is how bad baseball teams are constructed. By people who think like you. So I am guessing if you are a contractor, and you have 9 jobs over the year, and someone offerrs you 10% more for 1 of the 9 jobs, you will reject that offer because it's not significant?? You will say "Thank you sir for your offer of 10% more for this job. However this job represents only 1/9 of the total number of jobs I will do this year and the slight 10% increase in wage will be insignifigant. Thus as a master mathematician I must reject your kind offer. Yours in math - Mr. Deadpool"

MATH. Being abused by idiots who don't understand it since like FOREVER. Don't use math bud. You don't know it. 1 hit a week from one player is huge. For 9 players that's 9 hits a week. You have no understanding of how the math works. Let's take a look at last years blue jays vs. the highest scoring blue jays team in history, 2003, hits homers walks runs 2003 1580 190 546 894 2012 1346 198 473 716 The main difference is 236 hits and 73 walks. Per position that is 26 hits and 8 walks. 1 hit and a fraction of a walk per week per position. 1 hit a week per position is HUGE. It is the difference between a mediocre offense and a championship caliber offense. Math. Never use it again. Apolagize to your family for the shame you have caused them.

Incredibly sad considering 2011. Other than the fact that he got injured twice (once was in the last week so no one noticed) it was a great, great year in the minors and majors. As a blue jays fan our dreams must not only be broken but they must be crushed. A player who looks great, can't just be good. Lawrie looked like he could hit .300, could hit for big time power, steal bases. He looked great. Not meeting expectations he would still be good. A .280 hitter with 20 homers. But as a blue jay fan we should learn that everything good and hopeful will be crushed into nothing. This is what Brett Lawrie is. A horrible hitter, a guy who can't keep his on base percentage over .300, 11 homer power, an out of control meat head with temper tanturms, a guy who can play 80 games, hit .240, maybe pop 7 homers and create distractions. Brett Lawrie meet Travis Snider. A dissapointment beyond dissapointment.,

The biggest problem is that he plays out of control. I'm no superscout but in February I told my friends and my wife that Brett Lawrie was getting injured. What injury they asked?? I told them I didn't know for sure. But he'd crash into a fence. Or dive for a ball he shouldn't dive for (done). Or run into second out of control (done). Or crash into a camera bay again. Or get into a fight. Or break his knuckles in a temper tantrum. Or peeve the other team off and get hit by a pitch. The kid is out of control. So is Reyes if you watch him. Both fast twitch guys but who seem awkward and not graceful. This is why AA needs to go. All in with a left side of the infield that will be lucky to combine for 160 games?? Compare these guys to Cal Ripken, or Robinson Cano. Graceful smart athletes who you can pencil in for 160 games a year. I suspect we'll be putting Machado in that category in a few years.

It's pretty hard to hit .320 and not be good. However it's possible. It would be rare but 2013 Melky has the characteristics necessary to hit .320 and not be good. To hit .320 and not be good, a player would have to... 1. Have almost no power. 2. Draw no walks. 3. Play left field or first base and play it badly or dh. 4. Be a bad baserunner. 5. Play in a good hitters park where .320 doesn't mean as much. If Melky hits .320 with 7 homers, 25 walks, negative defensive value (because of the hamstrings) and negative baserunning (hamstring again) he could end up having a mediocre .320 season. I'm not saying this is going to happen... I think if Melky hits .320 he ends up being a good player... but if the defense and baserunning is effected by the hamstring he could hit .320 and not be that good.

If Snider and Rajai hit at their career rates vs. righties/lefties they would beat a .280 hitting Melky. They would combine for .270 20 80 rbis, 20 sb, based on their career rates. Melky would be .280 15 80 or so. It would be close. This isn't even considering that half the argument with Snider is that he still has upside.

I doubt Melky is better then Snider if he hits .270. If they both hit .27 a .270 hitting left fielder with 10 homers isn't a good player. A .320 hitting left fielder is probably a good player. It's a huge difference. 50 points in batting average is huge. Utterly huge. Especially for a player who's best skill is hitting for average. And who cares if Snider is being hidden against lefties. Then you have to look at what Snider's platoon mate is doing. Say it's Rajai Davis. Rajai Davis hits lefties better then Melky. A Snider Rajai Davis platoon is better then Melky hitting .270/.280.

All I ever wanted for Snider was one year of 500+ Murphy free at bats. Even better would be two years of 500+ Murphy free at bats.

There are an infinite number of ways that the moves could turn out. Given Melky's secondary skills he needs to hit above .300 to be a good player. But like all baseball statements it's not black and white. These are all shades of gray. It's not like Melky would be way better if he hits .302 then he would hitting .298. Snider and Melky are actually tied in WAR right now. The way I see it Snider's path to be way better is to start hitting for the kind of power we always hoped for. Melky's path is to get his average up some more. All I'm saying is that if Melky hits .320 he'd likely be a very good player... if he hits .280 he would be an average player.

Today is May 28th 2013 Farrell 32-20 .346 team on base percentage Blue Jays 22-29 .317 team on base percentage For the last while the team has been in a holding pattern they haven't gained anything on the John Farrell's mighty sox, but haven't lost ground either. They are only 6.5 games back of the second wild card. The team on base percentage is now average. Things change slowly, but they are changing. Let's hope for continued improvement. Since we last spoke J.P. Arencibia has walked and now holds a 59-3 k/bb ratio. He still can't go on like this... can he?? It's amazing how long this has lasted. J.P. continues to do just enough power hitting to hold off Thole, despite a .250 on base percentage. Every time I think he is now bad enough to justify calling up Thole and splitting the job, he drives in three runs or something.

The fat kid hits another triple... He's doing OK right now. Nothing special. But as it stands now we'd be better off having a Snider/Sierra platoon in left, and 16 million more towards the Yu Darvish posting fee, or the Chapman signing bonus or something... It's a long season this could all change, but so far underwelmed by the Snider/Lincoln/Melky roster shake. This all changes if Melky gets the average up to .320... it also all change if Snider goes an a power tear. Just something to keep an eye on.

Fat kid with a triple last night. Nothing special but keeping pace with Melky so far... In fact if you assumed a Snider/Sierra platoon that might be better then Melky 2013... especially considering the way Melky is moving around so far.

According to Richard Griffin J.P. will only be accepted as a great catcher if he makes the post season. For once I will accept Griffin's logic. Just because your scenario is to depressing. If Jays don't make the playofffs no extension for JP no matter what. If they made the playoffs I could atleast accept the extension... maybe. Though Joe Carter's extension after 92 was kindof annoying. I know "Touch em All Joe" was kindof cool but that one image of Joe jumping up and down has probably influenced J.P. I'm sure there's a mural of it near where they walk in and every day J.P. says "that'll be me one day, just have to be more aggressive, maybe when Joe comes back for old timers day he'll give me some hitting tips."

They lost Alomar after 95, and won 74 in 96. Then they tried to reload off of a 74 win season (sound familar??). They gave away Olerud for Robert Person so that Joe Carter could play 1st. Got Clemens, and made some other big moves. Were preseason favourites then the season happened. The Clemens signing was brilliant. The team would of won about 60 games without him. Everything else was pretty much the worst series of moves you could make. - signed Benito Santiago to catch -- puts up J.P. Arencibia like numbers except for free agent money. - big trade for Carlos Garcia to play second... Carlos Garcia meet Bonifacio. you guys could be twins - same trade also netted Orlando Merced, erily similar player to Melky. He was OK. but nothing special. - traded Olerud so Carter could play first. Carter put up what is generally regarded as the worst 100 rbi season ever. Robert Person who they acquired for Olerud was pretty bad. Offense was horrible. For all their effort in the offseason improved from 74 wins to 76. There was apparrently a clubhouse mutiny, led by Clemens, and Gaston got fired.

I partially disagree about "skin in the game". Many of the people involved with the 1997 debacle (namely Beeston and Cito) are still around for what is (so far) a very similar season. Gord Ash has had a fairly cushy life as a columnist I believe, then as an assistant GM. The downside for AA is something similiar, AA's downside is what would amount to a dream life for someone aspiring to get into baseball. Still a downside as compared to being a GM I suppose. The bigger problem is that Beeston, Consultant Cito, the older scouts have no downside at all, they will always be remembered for 92/93 no matter how many times they've messed up since, they messed up 95, 97, clubhouse mutiny in 2009, and are still around. Compare that to Tampa Bays front office which seems to have some younger baseball prospectus types trying to prove themselves.

You're quote at the bottom was from Nicholas Taleb?? Correct?? Interesting. I see where you are coming from. Taleb's philosaphy is basically that 90% of what humans do is a bunch of crap. Many make their way in the world by convincing others that their crap is real. People aren't good at detecting the crap so Tabel believes in old school punishment to get rid of the crap. So as an example if you build a house and the house collapses, and kills someone's family your family dies. That's a bit extreme. But if your a banker and you lose money for your clients the system must be so that you also lose all your money and never work again. In reality the banker often doesn't lose anything just the clients. If you are a baseball president (or GM) and you waste 100 million dollars and several young prospects on crap... then you must be embarassed and pay in a real and permanent fashion. So the best thing for the Toronto Blue Jay franchise would be to publically fire and embarass Beeston, Cito, Murphy and a lot of the scouts. Send a message to the next regime that Rogers doesn't put up with phony crap. If his moves don't work AA should spend the rest of his life poor, embarassed, known as a failure and a phony-fat-girly-man. His wife should leave him and children should laugh at him and hit him with a stick. Instead he will probably get promoted to President... and that is why the Blue Jays fail.