Olerud363

Big Acquisitions: Starlin Castro and Alfonso Soriano.... AA: "Castro is a guy we wanted for a long time he has 5 tools. Our scouts all expect him to rebound. We really think he'll be fine. He's a guy who's got great make up, knows how to play the game and play it right. Soriano is another guy we've always liked. He's in great shape for his age. There is no doubt in any of our minds that he can still play at a high level. Our plan is Castro at second, Lawrie at third, Reyes, Bonficacio in left, Soriano at DH, this is a team designed for Cito, built to win for Cito, we know with Cito he needs the right guys. This isn't 2000, it's not the moneyball era anymore. Paul and I know that Cito still has what it takes and that's why we brought him out of retirement, and we're giving him a winning team this year. This is it. We're not making the same mistakes. 2014 will be the year of legacy where Billy Beane, Tampa, thinking, math, youth, and society all get on their knees and worship the Beast.... I know I lick his balls every morning and you will too.... or we'll kill you. Thanks guys, none of us are entirely sane any more obviously... and just to let you know I'm also a tad medicated myself... but just chill and go with the flow like that Stoeten guy... don't want any sour pusses ruining the parade."

The offense is average... Not a positive or a negative. It looks slightly above average at the moment but these things go up and down. League average OPS... a little more runs scored then one would expect. Their more likely to finish 9th in runs scored then 3rd. Anyway this happened last year. The offense is OK. Not a elite offense... but good enough that if they had elite pitching it would work.

He's experienced quite a bit of failure. Some people say "failure isn't that bad" and continue to try their best... other people just go into their shell and collect a pay check until they get fired.... You're saying AA is in the second group??

I didn't say Buerhle crashed... this is what I said about Buerhle "34 year old Mark Buerhle has pitched as expected. Which is very slightly above replacement level. And I guess according to Stoeten this is a good thing?? That this organization, led by a team of elite superscouts, that the best they can do is find a 34 year old replacement level pitcher at 16 million a year??"

Isn't the Score owned by Rogers?? Having worked for a small "independent" company, that was purchased by a large conglomarate I have a hard time believing the score is independent. Ussually this situation means the Rogers suits watch the score, could crush Stoeten if they wanted to but wouldn't bother filthying themsleves actually interacting with Score employees. They probably hire a consultant to do that.

I don't know who is "seriously" predicting apocalyptic proclamations. Occasionally some have (mostly in jest) suggested 2050 as the new goal. I'm not aware of many who would seriously spam Stoeten's site and twitter. I've never interacted with the guy myself. But maybe there is a world I'm not paying attention to. So most people who are incredibly negative aren't predicting the apocalypse but just feel it's time to switch course, time for another rebuild. And that needs to be done by a new regime. If this exact same team team had been together 5 years, had a couple of playoff appearances, then grown old... nobody would think that's a crazy view. That would be the nature of the cycle. The fact that this team was built 9 months ago... the Phillies without the playoff appearances many have called it... makes for an awkward situation. It's hard to gracefully and tactfully explain that AAs moves basically served to skip the winning years, and go from promising farm system, to over the hill without any winning, or even contention.

I check djf about once a week these days, and rarely read entire articles. In 2011 I probably checked it twice a day. But as I mentioned before since being purchased by the Rogers empire (indirectly through the Score?? Whatever...) the site has basically become a apology operation. Yesterday Stoeten took it to a new level calling 70% of fandom "insufferable sour pusses". I guess the thinking is that the little people don't know what they're talking about and are complaining over-dramatically because they have a psychological disorder. This year we've seen Anthony Gose crash, Brett Lawrie crash. I don't know what the word is for what Ricky Romero did (5 walks in one inning last night)?? 23 year old injury prone Henderson Alvarez is neck and neck with Johnson in WAR.... Brandon Morrow has crashed. 38 year old RA Dickey has crashed. Sergio Santos hasn't pitched 10 innings in 2 years. Top prospects like Osuna and Sanchez have injury flags. The first round draft pick didn't sign (again). 34 year old Mark Buerhle has pitched as expected. Which is very slightly above replacement level. And I guess according to Stoeten this is a good thing?? That this organization, led by a team of elite superscouts, that the best they can do is find a 34 year old replacement level pitcher at 16 million a year?? We have 2 regulars with a .250 obp... but this is OK right... because... on base percentage is overrated or something. We are seeing our former manager leading the best team in baseball to the playoffs. We are seeing other city's media hint strongly that there is something wrong in the Toronto organization. We see players out of control on Twitter, Our leftfielder suffers from steroid withdrawal. We are in last place. And I could go on and on and on.... But the number one point is this: When AA took over he promised that a team of "superscouts" would find hidden advantages in every move, instead they find the hidden (or even worse the obvious) disadvantage in every move. And that is what has so many fans so upset. The conventional wisdom is young players, pitching, on base percentage, farm system, young not old, patience (at the plate and with the devolopment process), build the team, have a couple of year of success before going "all-in". Tampa Bay/Oakland model (young players), the New York/Boston model (crank up the on base percentage with the payroll). But AA claimed to be smarter then the conventional wisdom... the team of superscouts would find 30 somethings that would beat conventional aging... or something like that. But I digress, Back to Stoeten's point, the fans are just sour pusses to believe all this Tampa Bay, Bill James, Billy Beane s***?? Right?? In AA we believe. In the end we're not sour pusses... just long time fans, who have watched a lot of baseball Admittedly tempers run hot... the prose isn't the greatest, but we're not paid writers for Rogers coorporation... we're just fans. I think the way we say things is a bit much... but what most of the fans are saying isn't that outrageous. We think the organization is in serious, really scary serious trouble... and we could be wrong. I hope we're wrong. Nothing would make me happier. Anyway Stoeten, like Wilner, has a job to do, promotions to get, people to impress. I shouldn't be to hard on him, he's just another guy earning a dollar and trying to impress Rogers suits.

Tampa scores about 10 more runs a year. It is not much. But they are consistently a tad better. The comments from the weekend indicated (some) people believed that Tampa had an inferior offense, and were forced to use brilliant clutch bunts at key moments. The truth is that Tampa has a good offense, slightly better then Toronto (over a period of years). They do not use "clutch bunts" (atleast not anymore then Toronto. Tampa hits less homers but makes up for it with walks. Just stating the facts. I believe I've stated them accurately. Dogma: Tampa Bay and Joe Maddon are on a budget so they use clutch bunts. Truth: Tampa Bay and Joe Maddon are on a budget, they walk more than most teams, their offense is slightly above average, they don't seem to use clutch bunts.

Jays are 8th in the league in walks. Not 10th. Tampa is 5th. Jays are 32 walks behind. Did you read the post?? I summarized all that info for all seasons since 2008. Jays end up 50 to 200 walks behind Tampa in a given year. There's variation. This year it will probably be closer to 50 then 200. In an average year Jays are 100 walks behind Tampa. Jays and Tampa bunt about the same amount. The difference in the offense (Tampa a bit ahead) is walks. Are you arguing that?? Over the weekend I heard people say the differenece in offense is "clutch" and "bunts". My point is that the main difference is that Tampa walks 100 times a year more.

A reasonable guess is that the Rays look at career on base percentage (Loney has a .341, KJ .338, Yunel .349). Players, somewhere around 30, with a good career on base percentage, coming off of a down year.

I doubt the Rays try to predict individual player performance to that kind of precision. It's not possible and the Rays are smart enough to avoid that. As a group they predicted that Loney, Johnson, and Escobar would rebound and be productive. The individual variations (Escobar a bit low, Loney a bit high) are just noise. I suspect the Rays "group" projection for Loney/Johnson/Escobar was pretty good.

Fair question. The motivation for the thread was about 10 to 20 Joe Maddon "bunting" comments I saw over the weekend. The "dogma" was that the Rays are an under-financed franchise with a mediocre offense so have to bunt more than the Jays... It was just one of those things were the "dogma" was completely wrong... so I felt it deserved it's own thread. 1. Joe Maddon doesn't bunt more then the Jays. 2. The Tampa offense is better then the Jays (over a period of years). 3. Tampa bay does hit less homeruns then the Jays. They make up for it by walking, not by bunting.

That's just one game though. You have to look at these stats over a period of years really. If anyone has clutch stats from Jays and Rays over the last few years it would be interesting to see.

And a final point. I know it's Maddon, and not Madden. I corrected it in my post but don't know how to fix the title. I don't know why I keep doing it. It's probably a sort of dyslexic thing.

Note especiallly 2010. Tampa score 50 more runs with 100 less homers?? How could that happen?? There is no explanation... other than... CLUTCH BUNTS! That must be it right??

So in my endless ramblings about on base percentage, I'm often told "chill out captain obviious -- on base percentage is no longer "moneyball"... these days everyone knows how important on base percentage is... so it's overvalued now." If that's true why does Tampa Bay have a slightly better offense then Toronto (since 2008) with way less homeruns but way more walks?? If on base percentage is so expensive how does Tampa bay afford it?? When Tampa comes to town there is always 10 to 20 silly posts on crafty Joe Maddon and his bunts. There are zero on Joe Maddon working well with a brilliant team constructed by a brilliant GM that WALKS a freakin tonne. If walks are over-rated now why does the ultimate budget team still walk more than anyone?? Not that they have a totally brilliant offense. Their batting averages are low, they hit fewer homeruns then Toronto, but the walks make up for it, so the offense in the end (over a period of years) is a bit better then Toronto's. Here is the data. Runs, homers, walks, and sacrafice bunts... league rank in parenthesis (except for bunts because it wasn't available). Toronto and Tampa bunt about the same. Toronto hits more homers. Tampa walks a lot more. How are they getting these overrated walks so cheaply?? 2013 tbr 465 (4) 113 (4) 339 (5) 16 tor 439 (6) 120 (2) 307 (8) 19 2012 tbr 697 (11) 175 (8) 571 (1) 34 tor 716 (7) 198 (5) 473 (9) 33 2011 tbr 707 (8) 172 (6) 571 (3) 37 tor 743 (6) 186 (5) 525 (4) 31 2010 tbr 802 (3) 160 (6) 672 (1) 39 tor 755 (6) 257 (1) 471 (9) 16 2009 tbr 803 (5) 199 (5) 642 (3) 25 tor 798 (6) 209 (4) 548 (6) 24 2008 tbr 774 (9) 180 (4) 626 (2) 23 tor 714 (11) 126 (10) 521 (11) 48

I don't think the data really tells that story. The Rays walk a lot and have always have an offense a little better than what one would expect. The real "small" thing they do is consistently walk. There offense has ranged from 3rd to 11th during their run. They've always been in the top 3 in walks... except oddly this year. This year isn't an outlier. They were 5th in runs in 2009, 3rd in 2010. So they've been able to score runs. They walk. Suck on it Buck Martinez, they do, and they win doing that.

Rays ball comes down to three basic things.... 1. They understand that human beings get older and often bet on young men (they are cheap which forces them to understand). 2. They understand buy low, sell high and often bet on men who are (temporarrily) down. 3. They don't hate on base percentage. The rest of it is window dressing. Believe in those 3 things and you will have a chance.

If I am around I will be 93. Don't know if I will be around... If I am don't know if I will have the wits to hook myself into the Rogers complete virtual reality seats. Don't know if they will have that technology at the old folks home. Even if they have the complete virtual reality system in the old folks home, I bet us old folks will only be able to afford the 5th deck. (you do know that once these systems are invented Rogers will have ways of setting up tiers). Anyway I'm rambling. Let's aim for 2055. I will only be 80 and that may be a good age to enjoy blue jays baseball. Still with it enough to follow the game, to decrepid and cranky to want to do much else.

The best thing for the franchise would be to get a top 5 pick. No. That is not going to happen. The draft picks the next 3 years will be 2014 - 14th overall 2015 - 15th overall (lost in desparate attempt to sign free agent). 2016 - 11th overall The new regime will have an 11th to work with in 2016. But there will be absolutely zero farm system as it is all given away for 79, 80 and 73 wins. At the end, when AA and Beeston are desperate they will even lose a pick in a futile free agent acquisition.

Just curious if there have been any critical articles in the media at all about Paul Beeston this year?? I haven't seen one. Other then the comments on boards like this. Not that the media has to fry the guy as I like to. But can't they just write an article questioning wether he is up to the job?? Maybe someone has and I missed it. Is Paul Beeston equipped to be a major league baseball president in the year 2013?? And go up against guys like Theo Epstein?? What is the role of the president?? In my mind the president has to be able to embrace modern technologies, things like modern statistical analysis, has to understand things like Twitter. Has to understand the role of scouts in the information age. No he doesn't have to be hands on with all this... he just needs to be able to understand the various problems that can come up... like 1. Is the front office using modern statistical analysis properly?? 2. Are the scouting resources allocated properly given the richness of publically available resources?? 3. Are the players using social media appropriately?? So has any media looked at Beeston critically, examined what the role of president should be, and asked honestly wether Beeston is up to it in the modern age?? Maybe he is and I'm wrong on this... but it would be nice to see someone look at his performance.

Is he at least giving the Tampa Bay organization credit?? If so that's ok. If he admits that Tampa is good because they are creative, have faith in young players and obey baseball laws handed down from god (respect on base percentage and young players) then OK. I can see his argument. If he admits that no one, not even Maddon could win in the presence of Beeston, then OK. He has a point. Maybe he is saying that switch Maddon and Gibby, keep everything the same and Madden loses because he loses his young pitchers and gets the old dinasours Dickey and Buerhle. I can dig that if he is saying that. But he's probably not saying that because he obeys the law of Beeston. So in that case he can go F himself.

Great stuff. I hate it when guys like Law pretend they know more than they do. The way he talks in absolutes is annoying.

No problem keeping him at a lower level. But for the moment moves him from an A prospect to B. The real good prospects can handle Lansing their second year. Lots of time for him to catch up.

Blue Jays organization code of honor -- the following principles are important 1. Loyalty to your stupid friends. 2. Arrogance. 3. Spelling and Grammar Mike Wilner. Employee of the year for being a fine example of all that is important to the organization. Not important 1. Logic 2. Respecting better organizations