Olerud363

I'd never count the red sox out. They have a very intelligent front office. I didn't think this would happen. But as I keep harping on my red sox friends who are smarter then I (and everyone on this board) predicted it. Boston is the place of MIT, Havard, and has a million brainiacs... American brainiacs who have also been selected to thrive in a cut throat environment. In Toronto we reject randomness (such and such a prospect will do exactly what I say, Pillar will hit .280 no more, no less, 0% chance (0.00000) of being a star). Now I will get my socialized health care and continue centrally planning my life in my wonderful soft, slightly left of center (despite Harper) Canadian world. A red sox fan would say In Boston we accept randomness (a Prospect such as Pillar will hit .280 +/- a huge amount of uncertainty, I would say he has a 12% chance of being a star, with the understanding that we don't know much at all, only probabilities). Now I will work like hell to survive and atleast get crappy insurance and continue trying to survive in a cruel, random, world where money, winning, and capitalism is everything (despite things like Obabacare)... my American world.

Maybe an undisclosed injury?? Something not serious enough to dl him... but enogh to make him less effective.

One of my friends who was skeptical about the Blue jays offseason moves is a huge magic player. I did not predict the collapse. A lot of rain man types I know predicted it exactly. "Nice moves by your team. you must be excited. I wanted to choose those players for my fantasy team but coulnd't this year because I have to much money riding on it. I spent January making my aging curves and injury acutrials... oh boy. Not players that you can bet real money on... but in a fun fantasy league I'd draft them. Just can't afford to lose money this year because I plan to put all the fantasy baseball money back into magic next winter. Really need the money. But nice moves anyway." This just got me thinking some semi-pro magic player who does fantasy on the side wouldn't bet real money on the Blue Jays moves?? Anthopoulous doesn't have real money involved. Just Rogers monopoly money.

My complaint is the imperfections in measuring defense. Bonifacio is a plus defensive player this year?? According to WAR he is. On base percentage, Slugging, Park Factor, Range Factor. 4 statistics is all you need. I don't see how using WAR gets anyone anywhere. I suppose it's good for putting performance into context. Big fat first basemen with lot of rbbbizzzz!!!! Do we need WAR?? Or just common sense to put that into context?? If any front office appreciates on base and slugging in context of league and park, glances at range factors, relies on scouts and popular opinion for the rest of defense... then they are good at developing players and keeping players consistent... that a good organization. I am not saying WAR is bad.... What I am saying is that I don't see much of an advantage over on base, slugging, park factor, range factor. For the range factor you tallk about it with the scouts... so and so has a high/low range factor is it real?? Or is it a reflection of circumstances. Shoot the s*** a bit and come up with an intelligent defensive rating. You do all that your fine.

Great player. If Lawrie and Reyes and Bautista play 420+ healthy games in 2014, in which they are really healthy (no injury related tanks)... that would be a start. I would venture to say I would be very confident we would make the playoffs... but this team never ceases to surprise me. Everyone else would put up a .250 oba or something.

I don't have a huge problem with people saying it's stupid. I don't think it was... but again ONCE they made the decision it's ridiculous to go back on it in a week. In my mind they thought "This is an opportunity to make a good decision for the long term. Lawrie is a tremendous athlete and this would open up multiple paths to build the 2014 team. There may be some growing pains but long term this move could make us more robust. Positional flexibility is a strategy our keen rival Tampa Bay uses with success and we have no problems copying our keen rivals. There might be bumps on the road, but this is a long term move, and we're a great confident organization that builds for the long term.... wait... Did that kid just air mail it into the stands on a double play?? Really?? f*** what were we thinking!!!! Who's stupid idea was this anyway?? Fire that guy. This never happened. No it never f***ing happened. Go about your business and never f***ing speak of this s*** again"

Classic. I remember Fielder playing 2nd a couple of times. Hard to believe.

I will get flamed for this that I am a moron and am an idiot for believing in random distributions and positive surprises (and not the absolute accurate predictions of the super scouts)... nothing more I can really say today but I will bump this Oct 1st 2015.)

But if you have 10 decent prospects you'll get an ace somehow even if no one is projected for that.... somebody will overperform. Maybe not at a Harvey level... that's historic. But if you could find someone who performed at a Romero-2011 level, and was consistent and durable that's what you need. Consistent and durable is 70% of the battle. Stroman - Nolan - Synd - Sanchez - Nico - etc. etc. = decent rotation + 1 ace. Basically take all pitchers under 25 blue jays owned as of July 1st 2012 and there will be a decent rotation and an ace in their for 2015.

OK. If he pitches to a 4.00 era and that's the best we have it's disgusting. But going with guys like Hutch is fine. As long as you have enough. Some will over-perform, some will underperform. I bet out of the following 10 you get a pretty good staff and an ace. I have no idea which one will be the best... I mean Synd has the best chance, but it's only a chance... the thing is out of a large group of guys you get a good chance for some good pitchers. Hutch, Drabek, Synd, Nolin, Nicolino, Stroman, Sanchez, Henderson Alvarez, Woj, Desciafina, I'd be very comfortable with that base for 2014/15.

All I pointed out was that the Red Sox value young players. I realize they need another pitcher and that is why they are going hard after Gonzales... they really like Gonzales because they can get him without giving up young players. I also pointed out that clearly Luchino is actively engaged in player acquisition issues and is very happy his GM likes young players. A little different then Beeston. Another important point is that (so far) the Red Sox have done a great job retooling. 15 wins better then the Jays. They did this without giving up signifificant young players. One of my beliefs is that to be a good organization you should respect the great division rival organizations that perform better then you (Boston, NY, Baltimore, Tampa in our case). I don't think Beeston does, he is more like you guys, one sentence "Red Sox and Farrell suck bro... not wasting a brain cell on it"... but he says it in his 65 year old politician lingo, not your lingo. A "Dogg/Blue Jays Rays" thread starts with a one sentence low-information ridiculous statement... then you have long winded replies trying to refute. For example the "Walks are overrated thread"... starts with some guy saying "Walks are overrrated- so there"... then you get 5 pages of guys actually constructing informative replies... My threads start with giving some information... then you get the low-information replies from you guys, one sentence, no information. The exact opposite dynamic then Dogg/Rays Jays threads.

If a thing is overrated wouldn't you see teams with that characteristic being over-rated?? Like find teams that walk 650 times a year and show that they rarely make the playoffs.

Nobody would argue that. If two players have the same OPS, same power, same defensive value, same clutch factor, same leadership skills, same salary... the player that walks less will be more valuable... singles are better then walks. Because of his power J.P. Arencibia is probably one of the best players in the world with a .250 on base percentage... And actually if you compared him to another guy with the same oba... and the same power, but who hit .180 with more walks... J.P. would be better then that guy.

Oakland (in their good years) and Tampa Bay walk a lot... I think I beat that subject to death (atleast on the Tampa Bay end) the other day. I'm always willing to listen on the issue of walks. If someone wants to argue that they have a player acquisition or coaching strategy to build a team that will hit .280 and not walk all that much... well that would be fine if it really worked...

OK. I suppose people were waiting for this. 1. A .350 on base percentage is pretty good. I've always said the best way to get a .350 on base percentage is to hit .350 and not walk at all.. but that's not going happen. 2. Maybe... just maybe... telling guys to walk is overrated. You tell J.P. to take pitches but he can't recognize pitches, so he just takes strikes. But that's not your argument. Your just seem to be saying flat out that walks are over-rated. Today as we speak the American League leader in team walks are Oakland, Boston, Cleveland and Detroit. 3 playoff teams and a contender. If you go back in time and look at teams that walk a lot, it will be correlated with winning... at least as much as anything else,. especially in the wild card era. NYY, Tampa Bay, Boston, Oakland (atleast in their playoff years) .... overrated teams??

"The Red Sox are looking "pretty hard" at free agent Cuban righty Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, president and CEO Larry Lucchino said on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show this morning (Tim Healey has quotes). "The auctioning can begin," said Lucchino. Noting that GM Ben Cherington guards the team's prospects "like his first-born child," Lucchino explained, "Reaching into your pocket for your wallet is much easier." Lucchino confirmed the Sox are searching for rotation and bullpen help." This pretty much sums up the difference between the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. The red sox retooled without giving up a single draft pick or significant young player... For those who think the Presidents job is "uniiform changes" and "stadium renovations" follow Lucchino for a while. Larry Luchino seems proud of the fact his GM guards the teams prospects. Paul Beeston encourages AA to get some savy vets and get rid of those pesky prospects.... Paul won't spend the money to get a guy like Gonzalez, but will spend money and prospects on Mark Buerhle. Fire the Beest!!!!!!!

A lot of youth. Will be interesting to follow. Plus a great draft position this year.

Nice on Wilner. Wilner isn't a dumb guy. He knows the truth. After he dissed the Beest's budy Cito, the Beest neutered him. Wilner was likely placed on an extended probation... one little slip up and no more Wilner. So now we have to decipher his comments very carefully... it's all code. Wilner hates the Beest, and hates Cito... but likes a cushy job that isn't much like real work.

Awful. Not that I am married to the idea of Brett Lawrie as a second basemen. However just another sign that this team doesn't have a clue. Once a decision is made see it through. For gods sake nothing can be evaluated in a week. This organization doesn't understand this. Players go up and down like crazy. Nolin gets a start then goodbye! Lawrie gets placed on second then pulled off. Whatever happened 5 minutes ago is reality... Compare to Tampa Bay who look carefully at long term track records, value positional flexibility and have the patience to execute it. Once the decision to move Lawrie to second was made they should of gave him reps at second the rest of the year (I didn't mind the idea of flipping him back and forth).

I agree with this. Realistically no one I want to get fired will get fired in the next 2 years... some poor underling like Gibbons probably will. If things are really bad long term then there bad because of deep organizational problems and can only be fixed by a total rewrite... Beeston on down. But short term realistically no high level heads will be cut off, Beeston will retire in a couple of years, and either AA is president... or he's not. The pessimist in me see's a scenario where AA becomes president, they get 75 to 85 wins a year for the next 10 years and looking back from the old folks home there will always be this feeling that 1995 to 2025 was just 30 years of the same s***... Gillick was really the man, Gillick leaves, Beeston can't do it alone, Beeston trains AA, AA leads to no where (with the brief Paul Godfrey years sort of forgotten, but Godfrey came from the same circles as Beeston anyway).

This is idiotic. If you really care about the team start a petition to fire Beeston. Fire Gibbons, fire AA, it won't make a difference. The same mind that hired AA (and gave him orders) will choose even worse next time.

Better then Cito Gaston or whoever else the Beest would choose.

Your probably right. The mass of flab and useless neurons that is the Beest only has one skill.. survival despite accomplishing nothing. Making Gibbons pay would be classic Beest. Wouldn't be surprised if he rehires Gaston.

Abolutely not. Firing Gibbons would set this organization back 100 years. It would set society and the rights of the common man back centuries. The Beast must go. Paul Beeston is the one who must pay for this monstrosity. He has been hanging around for 20 years. Paul Beeston is a useless parasite, a thief, a criminal and evil man. Pat Gillick built a great organization and Paul Beeston was lucky enough to come along for the ride. When Gillick and Gaston had fundamental differences Beeston sided with Gaston. Since Beeston and Gaston have done nothing. Gillick built Baltimore, Seattle and Philly into winners. Paul Beeston must go. Firing Gibbons would just be a Richard Nixon like trick... so Beeston doesn't have to pay. Beeston - an extremely powerful firing, legacy destroyed. AA - put in purgatory until new pres decides his fate Gibbons - given another chance under the new regime.

It starts from the top. In any other industry Paul Beeston would be ridiculed and fired. Let's say a large bank owned a smaller mortgage company. The mortgage company is slightly profitable but the data says that if it was better run it would be hugely profitable. What happens to the president of the mortgage company?? The problem is the Toronto Blue Jays don't function in the real world of accountability that the rest of us function in, Paul Beeston isn't part of the real world, Anthony Gose isn't, from top to bottom nobody lives in reality the way the rest of us do.