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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Not currently negative value... will be 0.5 or so after this game. Could end up negative value by the end of the year, if he doesn't heat up a bit.
  2. Olerud363
    It seems dissapointing because his peer group, Juan Soto, Gleyborre Torres, Fernando Tatis JR, Acuno have all hit the ground running... He's 35th in rookie WAR... has less WAR than Reese McGuire... is what... 6th or 7th on his own team for Rookie WAR?? Biggio, Bichette, Jansen, Thorton, and McGruire all have more WAR... In a year where teams are going to hit 300 homeruns... where another Rookie will hit 50+... another Rookie (Alvarez) will have an 1100 OPS... The Vlad thing is dissapointing... especially the last three weeks.. just when it looked like he might finish Strong, he's essentially going to tank his final numbers and might end up with negative WAR.
  3. Olerud363
    it's posts like this that re-affirm that Laika along with Nox (who I believe was a different Smart guy) are the only 2 true "smart guys" to ever post here. By smart guy I mean first they could achieve very high percentile and symmetric SAT (or equivalent standard test) scores with minimal to no studying. We probably have a few Waterloo math types who could beat them on the math part of the SAT, but not the total score. Second they can devise practical strategies to get treats with reasonable effort (like scoring chicks, earning good money without crazy work). Yeah.. no reason to cut it close. You always want strategies that may produce small losses (like cutting a player a couple days early) but reduce the chance of major loss to almost 0.
  4. Olerud363
    Brett Cecil's 2008 is about as close as you can get to Kay's 2019... there are some differences, Kay a bit older, I'm sure differences in what they throw... but if Kay=Cecil that's not horrible. I don't know any of those guys are comparable to Pearson, Koff, Manaoh, Richardson.... They were more control guys with lower k-rates if I remember...
  5. Olerud363
    Juiced ball does not help our obese little ground ball hitter.... He's probably better relatively with a regular ball, as he doesn't seem to take advantage of it like Alvarez, and the Yankee's random international league pickups do.
  6. Olerud363
    hmmmm... 1) He's an ******* and couldn't get along with anybody 2) It was a #metoo behind the scenes 3) Price and Sales arms are mush, and will be owed 350 million or something for doing nothing... Red Sox know this know and can't led DD do it again.
  7. Olerud363
    Not to be Tercet, but Bichette's k/bb doesn't seem as if it can lead to good things... of course neither does Fernado Tatis' or Javier Baez's... so who knows. Maybe in this era it works. Vlad hits too many ground balls. Not that the minors is the place to work on that... but they do have things to work on. Anyone think the hitting coach will be fired?? Not just for Bo and Vlad (who are performing fine for 20/21 year olds albeit with warts..). but the non-development and of McKinney, Grichuk, Hernandez, Drury, Jansen, etc. I mean, if you get the guys currently carrying .280 on base percentages up to .310 it would help a lot... and for those of you who say the hitting coach doesn't make a difference... why have a hitting coach??
  8. Olerud363
    I don't get it either... Alford and Fisher are the same player except Fisher has twice as much power... What about a Fisher/Alford platoon?? I guess it would trigger Todd and the Fisher haters.
  9. Olerud363
    I still don't understand why Vlad Guerrero JR hit's so many ground balls... oh wait... he just struck out... nice change... Hopefully he goes on anothe hot streak... it just seems he goes 3 weeks between homers with just ground ball after ground ball...
  10. Olerud363
    (Anecdote warning) Marcus Stroman was 1 year away when he was at Alex Manoah's age. Roberto Osuna was essentially 6 months from being the closer when he was at Wood-Richardson's as of Jan 1 age. Aaron Sanchez was ready to contribute (as a reliever) when he was Pearson's age. I guess there are 40 man roster issues and such... so maybe forget Richardson, and you don't him to be the closer... or maybe if you pulled an Osuna but instead of closer, just made him "pitching guy", could you get 100 innings. Can you do piggy backing with Manoah/Richardson Can Manoah give 100 useful innings?? Pearson 120?? Can you make a list of how many useful innings every guy could give if used optimally then fit it together like a puzzle?? Can you piggy back Pearson and say Kay or something and get something useful?? Can you have an entire staff of guys pitching between 90 and 120 innings instead of 60 for relievers 200 for starters??
  11. Olerud363
    I don't know if you can evaluate them until after 2021. It's reasonable for next year to be another evaluation year. Sort out the outfielders and see if any make progress, give Vlad another year at third. See if Rowdy can make progress. Let the first wave of young pitching get established, and see how far the Richardson/Manoah/Koffenstein wave can get. Then in 2021 the Tulo contract is finally over, they have all kinds of salary space, and trade chips... so at that point they should be contending or close... and if not then you consider changes.
  12. Olerud363
    What do you think Vladimir needs to do to fix his ground ball rate and improve his hard hit rate and go from half decent to crazy with the rest of them?? (Based on his pedigree, batting practice and maximum exit velocity of 120ish, you gotta think if he improves the ground ball rate he can join the rest of them with the crazy numbers).
  13. Olerud363
    Who do you rate as the greatest homerun hitting team of all time a) the Maris Mantle Yankees of the early 60s the Griffey/A-Rod Mariners of the mid to late 90s c) the Kepler/40 year old Cruz Twins of today?? The Kepler/Cruz twins might hit 40 more homeruns than any of them... can't be anything to do with the ball... Fix the godamn ball, if for nothing else then Vladimir's .300 25 100 seasons, will be worthless with the crazy ball, but will be pretty good relatively with a normal ball ** ** (I have a theory that Vladimir isn't built for the crazy ball with his hard groundballish swing, and would do better relatively with a normal ball, this is based on the fact he is getting outhomered 40-15 by less heralded rookies and young players).
  14. Olerud363
    Jimmy key 1985
  15. Olerud363
    Everybody fails with 97% probability (see Kevin Smith, Noda and that "Sparkyburger" guy), however if Conine doesn't fail, maybe his non-failing outcome is Joey Gallo without the defense.
  16. Olerud363
    It's a good approach to answer the question "Can a guy with Conine's k-rate make an impact in the majors". If it has happened before the answer is, "yes it can happen". Of course you can't project based on 1 guy, but for a unique player it may tell what the 5% outcome is. Or project forward given a model of how k-rate ussually changes as guys advance, and figure out what Conine';s k-rate would be in MLB in 2022.
  17. Olerud363
    A good approach to these kind of questions is to find out if there has ever been a player like player x, who eventually became a good major league player. Has there ever been a player that struck out as much as Conine in the minors and made the majors and succeeded?? Has there even ever been a player that struck out as much as Conine??
  18. Olerud363
    Do you think it is possible for Fisher to lift the ball a little more?? Same could be said about Vlad. Though Vlad's hard hit rates may be lower than Fisher's now. Vladdy is kind of weird, his maximum velocity is super high (some of the hardest hit balls in mlb this year), but his overall hard hit rate is only 36% last I checked, + Grounder to fly ball rate is 1.5, where the elite hitters seem to be at 1 or under. It seems the route for Vlad to become the elite hitter he should be is to fix the grounder thing, do you think the coach's will make an effort to optimize the hitters fly ball rates?? or is it something hard to change with coaching.
  19. Olerud363
    Alvarez is 2 years older... and right now has a much better swing. Hit's the ball harder more often and in the air more often. Vlad can hit the ball just as hard when he connects but I guess Vlad needs to make some subtle adjustments to reach Alvarez (2019) level. The hitting coach's need to help Vlad increase his launch angle a bit... Can he make the adjustment?? Or will Vlad forever be stuck at his age 20 hitting style and be hitting fearsome grounders and not be elite for his entire life... Is Alvarez always going to be a .320 .400 .680 hitter his entire life?? Never slumping?? These questions will be answered in the coming years... note things may be always as they are this exact moment, or perhaps they will change with Alvarez regressing and Vlad getting better. Vlad was better every other year that wasn't 2019.
  20. Olerud363
    Kind of cool ... Kirk = Moreno + 1 year + 60 pounds + 50 walks Moreno .305 15 94 Kirk .320 15 98 Both have almost the same number of career plate appearances
  21. Olerud363
    Also don't forget.... that Bichette was signed by one of AAs guys... and then they fired him... that is Shapiro and Atkins... after signing Bichtte.... so what do we have??.... AA essentially signed Guerrero and Bichette... great ones along the line of Ronald Acuna... and who did Shapiro sign??... Biggio and Derek Fisher... Biggio is really struggling... And Fisher hasn't done anything in several chances... and what is Sanchez doing??.... Well look it up... 2-0 with a no hitter and on track for another ERA title.... well not this year, but Houston fixed him so maybe next... I think that at some point this all has to end... maybe find the next AA to get some players to go with Guerrero and Bichette
  22. Olerud363
    The only thing I can think is that the analytics say Urena and Galvis are the same player except Urena isn't an "established vet" so he can play twice a week. Not sure what Urena's defense projects to be... his minor league career looks better than Galvis'
  23. Olerud363
    Just look at his overall line and judge based on that. 15 inning 17 ks, 11 walks... well look at his entire body of work which is a bit better... Is he David Purcey?? No David Purcey was worse in his aproximately equivalent season in 2006 (awful at aa and aaa). Kay is spectacular at aa, and sketchy (but not as bad as Purcey) at aaa.
  24. Olerud363
    I would guess 2.5 or so. He's at 0.9 now in 87 games so would be on track for 1.7 or so in a full season. So add a little bit of offense and he's probably up another .5 to 1 WAR. Interestingly I thought he was exactly the same as last year in terms of offense, and he basically is in terms of obp and slg, but the wRC+ is quite a bit lower, I guess it really is a juiced up year. OK. Another question. What wRC+ would Vladimir Guerrero JR have if he optimized his laungh angle?? This weekend was my first chance to see Vlad and in real life it's like what I see on TV. Hard hit ground balls and viscous line drives (118 mph line drive single off the top of the wall). If he increased his launch angle slightly would his numbers be way better?? Or would the increased popups and high flies to the track compensate for grounders and line drives off the wall becoming line drives and homers??
  25. Olerud363
    Also I forgot about Gurriel... but I think just agree with Tercet that Gurriel is just another interchangable hacker who will have a .310ish on base percentage with power, who is just hot right now, but is the same as Grichuk, Fisher, Hernandez, etc... when you give them all 1500 at bats it will just work out the same. NOTE: I do not think I am special for evaluating Gurriel that way. I just looked at his minor and major league stats, and saw him play in New Hamphshire early last year. I remember him looking quite a bit taller and more athletic than Vlad.. I don't have vivid memories of him swinging (or not swinging) at a low slider... so can't predict his future based on that pitch.
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