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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    How about this. - 1 week pause. - Season resumes in 1 week. - Masks Mandatory in dugout, in ballpark, in every day life. - Fines for not wearing a mask or no SD. - Mandatory Social Distancing in every day life (no trips to the bar or strip club) - Fines for breaking the rules - Season cancelled if there is another outbreak. I don't know. This has been going around https://www.livescience.com/hair-stylists-infected-covid19-face-masks.html. But maybe if the hair dressers were around their clients 5 hours a day it would of been passed on anyway. Maybe it isn't salvageable.
  2. Olerud363
    You think they could of done a better job keeping this under control? I don't really have a good feel for how and why this outbreak occurred. If I had to guess a player or two went out on the town then spread it to a bunch of others. Could they have prevented the first part?? Maybe stricter rules on socializing outside of the ballpark. What about the second?? Seems to me, just watching the Jays players, that if one guy has it could easily be spread in the ballpark. A lot of close interaction without masks.
  3. Olerud363
    Jays starting pitchers yesterday are a perfect example. Only 1/4 masked, and although they were sitting 1 seat apart they were still reaching over, shouting in each others face. They had an entire ballpark to spread out in. Though I guess it may seem a bit ridiculous to SD in the ballpark when they will just be hopping on a plane together anyway.
  4. Olerud363
    The mask issue is baseball related as it pertains to keeping players healthy and on the field. I don't see it as being any different than discussing pitch counts. People might have their own opinions and data but as long as they are not calling each other ass-hats is there really an issue? The mask thing is is different then a BLM conversation with people calling each other morons, Marxists and Fascists.
  5. Olerud363
    What are your numbers?? A and B sitting together.... A has Corona Neither masked - Probability of transmission - 60% B masked - Probability of Transmission 30% A masked - Probability of Transmission 10% both masked - Probability of Transmission 4% Of course my number are half ********, and based on memes and some simple analysis I've seen going around. I deserve to be called out with better numbers.... Still my crappy numbers are better than no numbers.
  6. Olerud363
    The trade him talk is silly. However when do you send him down?? Delgado, Halladay, and EE were all sent down. How does the service time work this year?? If 10 days from now he is still a ground ball machine you might have to act. Every day this year, is eating up 3 games of service time. Can you send him down in 2 weeks, keep him down most of the year and save a season?? What does he do with that time?? Go to Rochester and work on fitness and mechanics? How would he react?? On one hand it's seems insulting to send a great prospect down after 2 weeks. On the other hand he doesn't deserve a year of service time for showing up out of shape and pounding grounders for 55 games in a freak season. On the other hand maybe he was in shape in March and the pandemic threw off his progress and you have to treat him with kid gloves. It might be crazy and insulting to him to send him down. On the other hand Delgado, Halladay and EE all went through it, handled it professionally and came back stronger.
  7. Olerud363
    That's the study I was thinkiing of. However they aren't looking at just strategy they are also looking at a performance, and assuming the manager has an effect on that. IE. They claim Fred McGriff played better in 94 and that players consistently "outperformed" under Cox So the manager could effect the win total 2 ways 1. Making players "better" by motivation, coaching and setting the direction and philosophy of the coaching staff. 2. Strategy Most people are complaining about 2 which is hard to decouple from 1, which is hard to decouple from luck and randomness.
  8. Olerud363
    Why would another team want a 260 pound ground ball hitting DH who will have more double plays then home runs?? Unless they think eventually the mechanical flaw will be fixed, and the double play grounders will be launched into orbit instead. If that is the case I would rather the Jays fix him and we get to watch him hit .330 with great power...
  9. Olerud363
    What do you think they should do?? Obviously a mechanical adjustmant or change in approach could be needed. I am sure they've realized the trend. If you are the Blue Jays organization what steps do you take to fix it?
  10. Olerud363
    This was discussed at length all of last year. I have no clue what the solution is. His batted ball profile in the majors is horrible. And in this series the trends were even worse than last year. I remember looking at his spray charts last year and the majority of the fly balls he did hit were to centerfield. He rarely pulled the ball in the air.
  11. Olerud363
    Second question. Do you think Charlie is the guy to develop the young players or do you think it matters? edit -- I assume here that Charlie has a lot of control over coaching hires and the approach of the coaching staff.
  12. Olerud363
    Most of the calculations I've seen show a very good manager is worth 2-4 wins over the absolute worst manager. Something like the horrible manager cost the team 2 wins, and the good manager gains two wins. So if that was true the 0.5 estimate is way off. However the problem is the analysis I've seen also include the effect of player development. And it seems to me, thus far, most of the complaints about Charlie are regarding strategy not player development. If you want to fire him because of player development issues I'd be willing to listen. However if you think the player development is OK and you want to fire him because of strategy, that's different. I don't think the strategy really costs all that much. Could be wrong. Does anybody have any links to research that looks at manager WAR because of strategy, somehow adjusting for the effect of player development?
  13. Olerud363
    Elevating Vlad's launch angle by 3 or 4 degrees would result in probably 15 more wins between 2021 and 2024, firing Montoya and getting the best manager in baseball would result in 2 maybe. OK. I don't know if that is true. However the 92/93 teams and 2015/2016 were built around 4++ WAR players. Developing Vlad/Bo/Bichette/Martin/Guerriel/Pearson etc. is the only thing I care about. If they can develop the young players the coaching staff should stay.
  14. Olerud363
    By my count 5 grounders, 2 line drives, 1 fly ball I would say 5-3 which is still a bad, especially since one of the liners (yesterdays op-field hit) maybe was a grounder. He also looks still too fat. Does he ever pop it straight up?? With our luck he'll over compensate and set a record for infield fly's.
  15. Olerud363
    I can't keep track. Is politics banned or not?? Another reason Trudeau's decision to ban the Jays was awful. Did he consider that this decision would bring politics back to BJMB?? Hard to avoid the politics when the Prime Minister bans the team.
  16. Olerud363
    I think blaming Cuomo for the deaths in long term care homes is misguided. He was the first to deal with this, and was told by his "experts" that the hospitals were going to be a war zone (they were) and he needed 30000 extra rooms and ventilators (that part was not true). He ended up trying to find extra hospital rooms everywhere and it wasn't understood how rapidly the virus would spread in LTC. So he obviously would of made different decisions with the information we've learned in the last few months. As far as I can tell Cuomo isn't a pussy and understands the issues. Unlike Justin and the PA Governor he won't make a decision for show, he will only care if the decision significantly effects the number of virus cases. If the Jays playing will increase virus cases by between .000 and .001 percent, then Cuomo will let it happen, he's concerned about the big picture not little optics here and there. Wear a mask, don't crowd the bars and Cuomo likes you... doesn't give a s*** about 3 extra virus cases on top of the few hundred a day he knows are going to occur anyway.
  17. Olerud363
    Who doesn't know that the NHL teams aren't travelling?? I just pointed out that long term the Blue Jays will be allowed back in, once the NHL starts travelling again. Sorry to be cynical but I don't think this decision was based on science. I'm not saying it's a conspiracy but just that next February, or whenever NHL starts travelling again, the federal government will let them travel, even if the virus situation is about the same as it is now. I think if faced with having to find a new home for 7 NHL teams they will have to, and the Blue Jays will also be to travel again then too.
  18. Olerud363
    While Justin has potentially done a bit of damage to the franchise with his Blue Jay ban the concerns that the Jays are moving to Charlotte are overblown. When NHL travel starts again Justin will have to approve the Jays too... can't let the 7 Canadian NHL Teams travel back and forth and not the Jays
  19. Olerud363
    A 260 pound ground ball hitter with elite exit velo in the shift era is 45 double plays, 120 mph singles off the wall, and 0.5 WAR waiting to happen.
  20. Olerud363
    I believe he is a Republican. However it can probably be stopped by a Democrat somewhere in the chain. Mayor of Baltimore is a democrat. I suspect the governor will approve and 9/10 signatures needed will be obtained, then this press release from the last guy in the chain (timed for maximum effect and political points). "After consulting with public health officials, scientists, experts, and taking a close look at the best data and evidence available we will not be giving permission to the Toronto Blue Jays to play in Camden Yards. The increased risk to their players, our players, their staff, our staff, our local residents, and to the neighborhood, city, state, country, and global community can not be mitigated given the current reality of the COVID-19 public health crisis."
  21. Olerud363
    Well it was the same with the Canadian government. City and province approved it and the Federal government stepped in. It's just politics. If they really cared about borders they would of closed the border earlier than late March. In fact up until early March Trudeau was claiming "the science' showed that border closures didn't help https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid19-trudeau-coronavirus-travel-1.5486799 The above article was from March 5th "During a briefing with reporters Wednesday, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said again that sealing off borders is not an effective approach to containing the virus. She said border measures work better when they focus on educating travellers about the symptoms, and what they should do if they get sick." So on March 5th closing the border is unscientific, on July 23rd completely closing it to everyone except Truckers and NHL players, and people visiting family in Florida is the scientific approach.
  22. Olerud363
    In this imaginary world Herd Immunity occurs at 20%, US Virus cases quickly decreases over the next 6 weeks and are almost gone by early September. Fans pack Charlotte starting in September. Jays make playoffs. Justin decides to let them back in. Players, Shapiro balk at it after the support Charlotte has shown. Jays players refuse to go back after the love Charlotte has shown, Trump and all opposing teams balk at the move. Jays decide to play playoffs in Charlotte (even though Justin decided they could come back). Jays win world series. Charlotte holds ticker tape parade. US economy roars back completely while other countries realize the lockdowns were a mistake and they were left behind. Dow hits 35,000 Oct 30th. Trump re-elected Nov 4th. Jays permanently move to Charlotte Nov 10th.
  23. Olerud363
    Nobody needs NHL in Canada either. Nobody needs toys, game consoles and other goods delivered to Walmart, I bet half the commercial traffic coming through isn't really essential. Are the benefits of having an NHL Bubble greater than the risks? It seems people think so. Fair enough Are the benefits of having the Blue Jays play in Canada greater than the risks? It seems people think not. Fair enough. However if people think MLB baseball in Toronto, is a serious incremental risk (beyond the risks we are already taking) then that isn't right. It's a small incremental risk, and it's OK to be against it, as long as you are consistent, and against all other small incremental risks which are non-essential.
  24. Olerud363
    So why are the NHL players allowed in?? They already broke that rule for NHL players and the decision was made because supposedly the bubble system was less of a risk. In fact they also broke the rule for the Blue Jays themselves for summer training. I have also heard that the broadcast crews from NBC will be allowed in for NHL games. So there are exceptions being made.
  25. Olerud363
    That article doesn't do a very good job of quantifying the actual additional risk of baseball travel within the current cross border travel situation. As others have pointed 200,000 people a week are still crossing the border. Flights are coming in from everywhere. Allowing well tested baseball teams in is not going to change the situation much. https://nationalpost.com/news/hundreds-of-thousands-of-u-s-visitors-are-still-crossing-border-into-canada-each-week
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