Olerud363

Not sure what is up with Gurriel. He must be nursing something to. Hottest hitter on the team and just had a day off.

Their weights may not be accurate but Ortiz is listed at 230 and Pucket at 178. Maybe those are buillshit or just their starting weights?? Nightmare. Vladdy's numbers in Tor and then Boston are like Ortiz numbers in Minn then Boston. Probably going to happen.

We need him to get 600 at bats to know for sure whether obesity causes a 60% ground ball rate. If he ends up as a .265 hitter with 15 homers, despite sharp contact, with 110 mph double plays and the occasional single off the wall then that would give us some answers.

Typo in your post 'lifted' you mean. If Spanky is back and needs to fight Boxcar for some reason I'll take a step back. Or were Spanky and Boxcar on the same side and fighting others. I can't keep track. Just trying to fight Grant and getting my ass kicked. How could I post a pro-Gaston article without checking carefully!!!!!

?? Boxcar is here I think. Grant and Olerud show today. I am probably losing to be honest, too much ranting, and didn't check the link I posted about the 2009 mutiny, it was actually mostly pro-Gaston.

Cito was about washed about veteranism. Pat Tabler was a horrible player in 91 . -1 WAR in a platoon role. Tabler got regular platoon at bats and a call back in 92. Of course Tabby thinks Cito is a great guy, he got to tag along for a World Series as a washed up negative WAR guy. Does Domingo Martinez think Cito is a great guy?? Guys like Domingo Martinez never got a shot at all... Domingo Martinez may have been nothing, but you could imagine if Charlie played a .200 hitter with negative WAR instead of trying to figure out Hernandez. And that is why Cito's awful, and Charlie is OK. Charlie plays the high level real young guys every single freakin' day, and tries to sort through the rest in case one or more are hidden gems. The guys who might have a chance get a look and the Pat Tablers and Kevin Millars can start an early announcing career.

Exactly. Olerud was an 8 WAR player that year. Other than Josh Donaldson who else has done that in Blue Jays history?? Maybe I'm forgetting someone. Supposedly it was to get Molitor with no DH, but Molitor played 3rd the next 2 days, so it really came down to Sprague or Olerud.... And of course you have people like Bob McCown claiming Cito is one of the worst people he ever met.. OK Bob Cat may not be that reliable. Wilner?? Same thing. And it's just the ********. Certain people weren't "respected" in Cito's mind, and others were. If you are Devon White or Joe Carter, and get the best lineup spots every single day?? Of course you love Cito. If you are an equally or more talented hitter that is platooned and hitting down in the lineup becaue you don't have Cito's "respect" then you might think differently.

And what's with you?? One minute you are all like 'freedom of speach, I'm being repressed', then you're like 'please spare us from something I don't want to see' Either you believe in freedom of speech or you don't, if you do just let people talk about what they want within reason, and skip the stuff that annoys you.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/blue-jays-players-verge-on-open-rebellion-against-gaston/article1203206/ (edit just to be honest here, the first link I put in about the Mutiny turned out to pretty much make Grant's point ironically, anyway the Globe and Mail article is much more what I remember about that year. As a baseball fan I watch to see the team win, and to see young players develop, there was nothing worse to me as a younger person, to turn on a game and see Brumfield, Millar, Tabler or some other old coot, playing in place of one of the up and coming young guys, like I said I don't care if Charlie bunts every game, at least I know Biggio will be playing and not replaced by a modern day Pat Tabler). Of everything that has ever happened on the board your petty mean spirited trolling is the worst. You know that many players dislikied Cito, you know about the mutiny that happened in 2009, you know that young players like Green, Olerud, Snider and Delgado missed 100+ games of their career so Kevin Millar, Pat Tabler, Jacob Brumfield and Ruben Sierra could get at bats. You know Cito had issues, but you pathologically and cheerilly deny it just to create trouble. You know all this but you troll anyway. Strange stuff.

Also -- do poeple really think Montoyo is as bad as Gaston? Not the same era but Cito let Hentgen and Guzman go 130+ pitches once and a while 110+ routinely. Charlie hasn't let Ryu go past 100 this year, didn't let Stroman go past 107 last year. Pretty sure Cito would of already had Caleb Johnson replace Jansen. Biggio would be platooning and hitting 8th. Panik, Villar, Grichuk, Shaw would probably be top 4 day in, day out.

It would also be cool if Jansen turns the corner a bit and get the average up to 200 with mind blowing walk rate and some power, but Caleb hits an empty .240, and Charlie starts working Caleb in more than Jansen Jansen .200 .360 .400 Caleb Joseph .240 .230 .280 In this scenario Caleb's on base percentage is lower than his average because he gets a bunch of key sac bunts. That will be ultimate Charlie Manuel and make the board explode. Edit - Sac bunts don't count for on base percentage, I don't think, so Caleb can't get the on base percentage lower than average through sac bunts, he'll need to throw in some sac fly's.

As a side note the two most similar minor league players of all time are Kirk and Justin Smoak. OK. That is not completely true. But they are pretty similar except Smoak was a college player I guess and started later. They both hit a bit, walked a lot and didn't hit as many homeruns as you would expect from a 240 pounder Except they took different strategies to get to 240 pounds. Smoak is about 10 inches taller.

Kirk could be better than Smoak. According to fangraphs their talents will converge sometime in 2021 That is based on Kirk 2019... we don't have data for Kirk 2020. But Kirk has not been working at Wendy's, he has been at alternative site camp in Rochester doing something. A smart organization would try to make that "something" very worthwhile and continue his develop. So Kirk could be really good right now. If he had a proper minor league season and did OK all the fans would be screaming for him I don't think we know how to deal the missing data properly.

What is up with Tellez? Will Kirk come up if he mises time?? I think that would be the bold move. This would of been Kirk's double a year. In a different world he could of demolished double a and triple a and of been a September call up... or maybe he even forced his way up earlier in the season. No one knows. The teams that play this right will have a competitive advantage. I wonder how many real at bats Kirk has had?? Come to think of it teams could do anything with the alternative site. If they know guys have a certain weakness, they can just keep pitching to the weakness. If some guys are more important to develop, higher ranking prospects they could give them more "at bats" Hell they could play game where Kirk is designated hitter for pitcher, short stop and center field and gets 12 at bats... Maybe Kirk has already had 500 at bats this year and they've trained him to be Edgar Martinez?? Really interested to see him.

bbrWAR may be inferior but I like the picture at the top. And it features Ryu, young position players, and failed starting pitchers/waiver pickups. Charlie may not be doing anything but staying out of the way... but you have to think 1. He is doing some coaching, and directing the coaching staff. Coaching staff is doing a great job. 2. Running the bullpen well. According to baseball reference, having the young guys play well and a good bullpen made from scraps is worth lots of WAR. Can't say Charlie should get too much credit here but atleast he isn't in the way. The dumb tactical decisions aren't worth much WAR either way.

For people who like positivity - something positive about each player and how this team can become the greatest Blue Jay team ever Top 3 Jays teams 1. The 92/93 Alomar/Olerud/Guzman/Morris/Winitor/White/Carter 2. The mid 80s Bell/Barfield/Fernandez/Moseby/Stieb/Key and others 3. Return to the playoffs Donaldson/Bautista/EE/Pillar/Prapp/Sanchez/Osuna New Candidate - Homegrown mostly by Shapiro ******* guy 1b/dh - Vladito - can hit as 20/21 year old, 20 pounds and 3 degrees away from mind blowing offensive numbers 1b/dh - Rowdy - big guy, nice looking swing, 2017/2018 numbers may be deceiving because of tragedy. Let's say he had bad injury instead and there was no 2017?? How would you evaluate him if there was only 2016/2019/2020 numbers?? 2b - Biggio - can't hit fastball, but also doesn't swing at ball and recognize pitches very early, thus he can cheat and start his very slow, non-fastball hitting swing early and connect with fastball that he can't actually hit, but he can be the ultimate cheater, hit a pitch he can't hit and walk 100+ times ss - Bo bo - can hit fastball. 3b - Groshans? Martin? lf - Gurriel - like Tellez has terrible minor league season in 2017... who knows if that was just an adjustment, probably another guy that would be viewed as an upcoming superstar even if he only had average minor league 2017. So far looks like good hitter. cf - Grichuk - Slight adjustment has changed completely from a .280 on base percentage guy, to a .320 on base percentage guy. Actually he's probably still a .300 on base percentage guy, but if he's the worst player that's a good team. rf - Hernandez - slight adjustment has unveiled Sammy Sosa like 60 homer power. c - Jansen - Batting average sucks but just can't remain this low. Russel Martin like homers and walks. Projected 2022 numbers 1. Bo Bichette - .320 .380 .550 2. Cavan Biggio - .250 .370 .410 3. Vladito - .330 .430 .600 (assuming 240 pounds and 3+ degrees launch angle) 4. Tellez - .260 .330 .500 5. Hernandez - .270 .320 .500 (I'm not really thinking he's a 60 homer hitter) 6. Gurriel - ..280 .330 .500 (those are his career averages) 7. Grichuk - .250 .300 .480 (assume he is the same guy as ever) 8. Martin - .280 .340 .440 (or maybe Groshans, assume there is a good chance one of them is OK) 9. Jansen - .250 .330 .430 Other than Vladito everyone above is just projected to do what they are already doing (with Jansen getting some extra babip) May be unrealistic because they may not be able to do it over a 160 game season Vlad may be unrealistic but I am just going super positive on him because people complain I am too negative on him.

I know your half joking, but I'm not really for trading him, I'd at least like to see him come into camp in sort of shape and get 150 games in a proper season. Complaining about Vlad's obesity/ground ball rate/occasional insanely bad at bats is different then hating him or giving up on him... being jealous that Tatis and Soto seem to be hall of famers from the first at bat is different than wanting to trade Vlad. Interested to see what happens with 150 games at age 22 and 23. I'd love to see the young mostly home grown core stick together for a few years.

The two must win, wins by 1 run in Boston at the end of 2016, and maybe game 3 of the ALDS.... But yeah, this was the first important game against a rival since then.

You are 100% right on all of this. However on the other hand fans are pretty smart, they've seen a lot, Jayson Heyward, Jesus Montero, Brett Lawrie, Delmon Young, Nick Johnson. There's a bit of mourning because the sure fire upper echelon franchise player, our Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Pujols feels like he's gone. It feels like it's a coin flip now. He could work it out like Delgado or he could go the way of those other guys.

It's not a good sign when identifiable problems are worse the next year. The weight and the ground ball rate from 2019 to 2020 the weight went from what 260 to 270 or so?? Who knows exactly. (Pandemic influenced this, but others spent the lockdown training and came back fine). ground ball rate went from 47% to 56%. The narrative that people "hate" Vlad is so stupid. No one hates him. How is bringing up stats equivalent to hating?? We're suppose to say "Vlad came in at 280 and had a 65% ground ball rate for the first 6 weeks, but weight is already down to 265 and ground ball rate is now under 60, I love you Vlad, you are a legend."

Yeah. Highest monthly OPS is not a good metric. Not just BABIP luck, but in one month, say 100 at bats, 2 homers are worth about 100 OPS points (80 slugging and 20 on base). You pull a couple of balls hard instead of hitting to center and it changes the month. Lots of luck, the ball park, the opposing pitchers, randomly missing or crushing hittable pitches. Right now Vlad is old Albert Pujols, old Albert Pujols has OPSs ranging from .600 to about .900 any month right where Vlad is. We all wanted Vlad to be young Albert Pujols with monthly OPSs ranging from .800 to 1.100 or so. Hopefully it still happens.

I don't loathe Vladdy, and would be ecstatic to see him succeed and am rooting for him. You are cherry picking Vlad's best month to make your case. Do you think .900 OPS hitters just put up month after month of .900 OPSs?? That's not how it works. A good hitter's best months are mind blowing 1.200 OPS months. To claim Vlad is good because in a good month he'll put up a .890 OPS is silly. Monthly OPS have a high standard deviation. If Vlad becomes good he'll be putting up 1.100++ OPSs in his good months.

His good month wasn't that good for a good month. Juan Soto had like a 1.250 OPS in August, Vlad's so called "good" month is below Soto's average month. There is quite a bit of random variability month to month. A great hitter's best months have an OPS way above 1.000. Putting up .880 OPS months followed by .600 OPS months is replacement level.

Obviously you can't judge a player on one game, but Vlad has some days where he just looks like a fat slob who can't hit. Everybody has games where they look awful but most guys aren't as fat as Vlad and weren't the greatest hitting prospect ever. A casual who watches a game every Sunday would turn on today's game and be like WTF??? They would of heard that Vlad was suppose to be good, and be like "Why can't the fat kid get around on s***** red sox pitchers that the rest of the team is terrorizing??, f*** this fat kid", then they'd tweet to Wilner who scolds them (seriously). Hopefully he loses some weight. I seem to remember him looking much better in 2018, stocky but quick.

Rowdy, Teoscar Hernandez too... Beyond the numbers Vladdy just looks so hopeless sometimes to the TV scouts Olerud363 TV Scout scouting report Everybody crushed the red sox bad pitching except for the fat guy who left a gazillion on base. Jays would of scored 15 runs if it wasn't for the fat guy. His fat stomach kept him from getting the bat around and he popped up a couple and struck out a bunch End TV Scouting report Have to say today's scouting report is a bit different then the ussuall 110 mph ground balls scouting report. Maybe he shouldn't fix the launch angle after all.