Olerud363

How the f*** does Bradley play shallow enough to make the Guerrero blooper routine, but also deep enough to make a 407 foot flyball look routine. Both of them he got there and had to wait a second.

That's unfair especially for Rowdy. I think some posters define Rowdy's ceiling by his numbers in Buffalo. Which might be unfair. Through New Hampshire he was on track to be a top flight hitting prospect, then his Mom got sick and sadly passed away, during which time he put up really mediocre numbers in Buffalo. Then last year he was back to lights out numbers in Buffalo, so there is a case to be made he has more in him then the 2017 and 2018 numbers indicate.

Someone told me that Bo looked OK during the Saturday Buffalo game, and they saw some of them (including Bo) dancing in the stands during the rain delay. Anyone else see that?

Are you for or against moving them in the order?? Do you think it hurts or helps them? I don't really care either way in terms of strategy. Batting order doesn't matter much in terms of run scored, unless you do it completely wrong. I do care in terms of player development. I have no idea if it matters there. If it does I want the team to use whatever strategy gets guys in the best head space.

Who is cheering for the players to flame out?? I don't see that. People are frustrated that's all. Guerrero was a once in a life time prospect that just has not been as advertised. People thought he'd hit from day one like Juan Soto. The ground ball issues, and occasional wild swings weren't advertised. Most people are frustrated because he was hyped as a guy who wouldn't swing at a ball and hit 3 line drives a game. Everybody will be ecstatic when that happens. No one rooting against him. Jansen was suppose to be a catcher who could hit .250 with secondary skills... hitting .150 for long periods of time is dissapointing.. I'm sure everyone will be very happy if he becomes a .250 hitter with secondary skills long term.

All of our hitters are roughly the same hitter other than the catchers. If you look at career stats they are all similar. Who has the best single season WAR ?? Villar in 2019 at 3.9. If you made the lineup by analytics, which uses minor league stats and career stats you probably get lineups similar to Charlies. It probably prints out the top 10 lineups all within .01 runs per game of each other and Charlie chooses the one he has a "feeling" about.

This sucks. Second time this has happened on a Sunday morning. Whatever happened to guys writhing in pain when they get an injury. In 85 when Buck had to go on the DL he cried like a baby at home plate (after getting the second guy out with a broken leg) In 2003 Jeter wailed like a whale. Missed his 6 weeks, but you didn't wake up to hear he was going to get an MRI... he rolled around like a beached whale. In 2011 Bautista cried as he busted up his shoulder after the all star break, didn't even go on the DL.. just missed 3 days (may have cost him a second 50 homer season though, I seem to remember something like 31 before all star break and only 12 after that year). When Lawrie ruined his career (before it really got started) by diving into the camera bay at Yankee Stadium, we all saw him dive into the camera bay head first. Even Gurriel's last two multi week injuries in August of 2018 and 2019 he was down like someone shot him and caused a 7 minute delay. What the hell is with waking up Sunday morning and seeing guys that looked perfectly fine Saturday night are headed for weeks of DL?????????

You guys have it all wrong. Teoscar is obviously the next Sammy Sosa, the 60 homer power is going to force them to walk him 100 times a year in 2022. Nelson Cruz would be another good comparison, except that Cruz only has 40 homer power. Speaking of Nelson Cruz, Nelson Cruz is older than Jose Bautista. I always thought Jose Bautista wouldn't age until his early 40s and still be out there purring up .280 .380 .550 seasons, and battle it out with Cruz. It's been 5 enrire years since Jose Bautista was Jose Baustista. Nelson Cruz is the same as ever.

None of the good lineups respect Carter and White... so not sure how much hitting them 2nd and 4th cost... at least Borders and Sprague weren't old enough to deserve a "respectful" lineup spot.

Kind of funny that the top 20 or so line ups range between 4.88 and 4.86 runs or so. And even the very worst only cost .3 of a run (though that would be very meaningful over 160 games) It would be interesting to see how many runs Charlie has cost us this year as opposed to optimal strategy. Just for fun 93 Jays https://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=John+Olerud&OBA0=.474&Slug0=.599&Player1=Paul+Molitor&OBA1=.410&Slug1=.540&Player2=Roberto+Alomar&OBA2=.405&Slug2=.510&Player3=Joe+Carter&OBA3=.305&Slug3=.480&Player4=Devon+White&OBA4=.340&Slug4=.450&Player5=Tony+Fernandex&OBA5=.340&Slug5=.400&Player6=Ricky+Henderson&OBA6=.440&Slug6=.480&Player7=Ed+Sprague&OBA7=.300&Slug7=.390&Player8=Pat+Borders&OBA8=.290&Slug8=.380&Model=0

It's a stretch to say he could of jumped from Dunnedin to MLB September 3rd 2019 and hit. Any number of guys have come up and hit well after leaving the Florida State League, tearing up double a and triple a, and getting called up September of next year. How do we deal with these guys?? Maybe between Spring Training I, Spring Training II, and the Rochester Training goup he's had 250 at bats against somewhat advanced pitchers and 150 against pitching machines, and he is ready for the big time?? We just don't know.

If the Wuhan lab security protocols are better is Kirk up in mid May after smoking milb as Jansen's struggle's? Or is he traded for Lance Lynn at the July 31st deadline after hitting only 3 homers ?

Tongue in cheak with some realism. Who else has put up a .400+ on base percentage as a Blue Jays minor leaguer?? Since we don't know what happens this year in the minor leagues there is way more variance than usual. Kirk has a .420 minor league on base percentage. Was this the year he came down earth?? The on base percentage dipped and the power didn't come. Or was this the year he spent 3 weeks in double a, and 2 weeks in triple a with a .450 on base percentage and Biggio like power development?

Yup. In the old days fat people like Kruk and Stairs had to ride buses for 5 years... one level a year, sometimes one level every two years. If Kirk was born 30 years earlier he'd be able to sign a 1 year lease in Syracuse and renew it a couple of times. Now there are no minor leagues anymore so who knows what you do with these guys. Call 'im up and see what happens I guess.

???????????? Our other fattie, who is actually younger than Kirk, has 150 mlb games, and is 4 degrees away from being Juan Soto, is more like our Juan Soto As much as we have a love hate relationship with him. Kirk is more like our... John Kruk?? Matt Stairs?? I don't know. Kind of like those guys except the advanced Sabermetrics will give him a good shot 5 years earlier

Your point is taken though takes 160 games for the luck to even out, Jays could just miss a playoff spot to Tigers or even Orioles with just some unlucky breaks... A 162 game season with 85 wins, full year of development for the youngsters, full year of minor league stats, and some "win the next 3 year" deadline trades would of been awesome.

Well the two 2-out walk offs down 1 run are even more critical. If the Grichuk flyball is 5 sheet shorter and the Hernandez Ground ball a few feet in either direction, Jays are behind the Tigers and Orioles and not projected for playoffs.

But it's like Grant has designed a trade which could result in a Noah Syndergard and Fernando Tatis JR situation in one trade. It's a trade that could be the worst ever. Orelvis's chances of being Fernando Tatis jr are still there, stats wise he is ahead of Tatis, and with Vlad as a 17 year old. Arias is the same age as Fernando Tatis jr. Edit - Arias is the same age as Fernando Tatis jr was when he debuted as a fully fledged legend on day 1 at bat 1. I guess Arias could also be a legend at 20 and we don't know it because there is no minor league season for him to hit .350 over and force his way up...

Four high ceiling teenagers and 2 high ceiling 25 year olds?? That seems crazy. I don't know if I've seen a trade with multiple high ceiling teenagers going the other way. Seems to me every player the Padres traded is like the 2 year floor of the ones you suggested. Like the trade would make sense if all these players stagnate for a couple years and their value is down.

Looks like weather... the same weather will probably hit Buffalo around 9:00 to 10:00 so hopefully they get our titanic battle with Baltimore for the last playoff spot off without problems. Imagine 1 year ago saying that Toronto and Baltimore would be battling for the last playoff spot hoping to avoid virus and/or social justice cancellations. Weather related cancellations are now in 3rd spot as most common cancellation reason.

Cavan is a beast too. His ozone swing rate is remarkable, just as Tatis' hard hit percentage is. Just pointing out that if Cavan's numbers are fake because of low sample size, Tatis's should be too. Both players have played around 120 games, both are hitting better then their minor league numbers indicated, both have very unique skill sets. Either or both could regress. I also don't even know what Law is saying. Is he saying Cavan isn't a .275 hitter but really a .235 hitter like last year?? OK. If so still a good player. Or is Law saying Cavan totally can't hit the fastball at all, and will hit .150 with no walks once they start throwing only fastballs at the middle at him.... ummmm not likely but OK.

For those with short attention spans Yo-Bro version of above Kieth law claims Biggio can't hit fastball and numbers are short season sample size issue. Well Biggio has played about the same amount of games as Tatis jr. Maybe it is Law's love boy Tatis JRs numbers that are the short sample size illusion, and Tatis can't control the strike zone, Law can't recognize Tatis' weakness and is folled by sample size and Law should resign when it is proven that Tatis is the next Jeff Francoeur.

Fernando Tatis Jr is now only at .300 Despite the small sample size there is no way Fernando Tatis Jr. is for real. His k-rate is way too much, his strike zone judgement is awful, and anyone who advocated for him or still does is a complete moron. OK. I don't know if the above is true, I am now rooting for. Vladdy to hit to all fields with a few more fly balls and become the next Albert Pujols (young version) Biggio to be patient as all hell, take every close curveball, and recognize the fastball. I want him to be the best player every who can't hit the fastball. In every interview I want Biggio to concede he can't hit the fastball, but he can get into a 3-1 count, recognize it very earlier, and "hit" it with guess work and recognition despite the fact that Kieth Law has correctly identified that Biggio has poor bat speed. Finally I want Fernando Tatis JRs lack of plate discipline and huge k-rate to catch up, and his D to be about average. Don't want the guy to fall apart but just to be the fourth best player of Vlad, Biggio, Bo and himself. Oh yeah, and for Bo to be the player Kieth Law thinks Tatis will be 2021 projections Vlad - .320 28 hr, 43 doubles, 88 walks .408 opb - greatness Biggio - .267 28 hr, 124 walks .410 opb (can't hit fastball but gets into good counts and starts bat very early) - greatness Bo - .338 31 hr - greatness (gets numbers Kieth thought Tatis would get) Tatis .256 29 hr 33 walks 199 ks .277 on base - (after hot start to career sees a year of breaking stuff out of the zone and does the best he can with it) That would be funny

Has Law ever been wrong about anybody?? Once we get back to 162 games seasons there will no longer be these small sample size problems Official Kieth Law 2021 projections Vladimir Guerrero JR - .240 11 HR 68 RBIs 298 pounds 77% ground ball rate Cavan Biggio (note starting April 2021 Scouts double down that Cavan can't hit, and no longer let pitchers throw any balls or breaking stuff so Cavan can't walk any more) .177 38 wallks sent down July 20th Fernando Tatis JR - .355 51 HR - 4 Dwar -- 12 baseball ref WAR 12.5 fangraphs WAR 14 Kieth Law WAR Mike Trout - .290 39 HR .410 on base 7.5 WAR (note Trout is second best player in baseball, amazingly Tatis JR beats second place by 5+ WAR) (Kieth's formula is proven the best) Kieth's brilliance recognized and hired by Dodgers to be GM, but Yankees offer more.

Wasn't the ban on politics done to make the a forum a more welcoming place for newcomers?? Newcomers will be comfortable talking about eating ass with strangers, but would be turned away by the political arguments??