Dick_Pole

While Terminator brought up the fact that the Jays are facing the bottom 4 teams over a 12 game stretch, he didn't mention that after that, 16 of the final 22 games are at home (including the Royals series). It's like the league is trying to gift the Jays 20 wins in September as if the team doesn't already make a habit of that every September. All the Jays need to do is keep pace with the O's and Rays and be within 5 games until August 27th then really turn on the after burners. Keeping pace shouldn't be the hard because between now and August 27th isn't exactly 1927 Yankees level opponents either.

Regarding Stroman: Meh. I don't really want him back given that: 1. Pitching shouldn't be the main concern. I'm happy with Gausman and Berrios as playoff #1 and #2. I'm sure out of Bassitt, Manoah, Kikuchi, Ryu and the pen the Jays can get by on #3 somewhere in there. 2. Will probably cost too much. 3. Not going to rage like Carlos Danger, but yeah the divorce from Toronto seemed permanent and the same guys who traded him while he fell out of favour here are still here. If it's a choice between Stroman and anyone other than Stroman, especially a bat, I'm picking the latter. If it's Stroman or bust, I guess you take what you can get but not at a steep price.

Did you not read my last post? This is exactly what we need. The day these dildos start getting on board is day one of an 8 game losing streak.

I think part of the reason why this board gangs up on guys like Connor so much is that board consensus tends to be way over-reactionary and not right very often so they take wins where they can get them. The guy is wrong on this first baseman s*** but more like bad opinion wrong rather than 2+2=5 level of wrong. Meanwhile two weeks ago people were saying the Jays should blow it all up and trade Bichette lol. Now we got guys talking 6 man rotation and Kikuchi to the pen like it's a foregone conclusion it's a luxury that's going to happen. Let's see a couple more starts out of Manoah and something out of Ryu before thinking about the overabundance of starting pitchers. In fact I want you guys to going back to Krylian level of negativity or worse. If you do, I predict 96-66 season and first in the AL East. Keep up with this six man rotation s*** and it's more like 77-85.

Through 93 games: 2023 - 52-41 2022 - 50-43 2021 - 48-45 2016 - 51-42 2015 - 46-47 The 2023 Jays have the best record after their first 93 games out of all the good years over the last decade. Last time this historically slow starting team had 52 wins in the first 93 games was back in 2006. Last time they had more than that was 1992. You guys are going to need to step up the whining again before this team goes on an 8 game losing streak.

I didn't read all this s*** so maybe someone brought up something like this already. The prototypical "replacement" 1B/DH type is Daniel Vogelbach or Rowdy Tellez. Now compare the career OPS of Tellez and Vogelbach to Guerrero this year and his 1 WAR or so starts to make sense. He's only about 30-40 points or so above their career totals. Forget about the negative positional adjustment. Just use logic. There are no end to the supply of Tellez or Vogelbach players who can be signed to cheap one year deals or acquired for basically nothing. .750 OPS is the baseline for a first baseman. Meanwhile someone like Espinal can get by with a sub-0.700 career OPS and still plug up a roster spot for 1000 PA...AND look good (this year notwithstanding) compared to some guys who have done that for the Jays over the last decade - Goins, MacDonald, Izturis, etc. because guys like Espinal are in relative short supply compared to guys like Tellez. The positional adjustment is just trying to quantify for that, with years of data to back it up. Fat guys can mash at the plate, but they can't move quick in the field. Therefore they are relegated to relatively few positions on the field. If only super athletic guys can cover SS, but fat guys and super athletic guys can cover 1B, it only makes sense that there will be a relative oversupply of talented hitters at 1B because the subset of human beings who can cover that position is larger.

Close enough. FO looks like geniuses calling him up for this one AAAA game right before the all-star break.

Based on the reaction of this board I expect Manoah to throw a perfect game with 15 Ks.

Leave it to the BJMB posters to be upset that the prospects played better than expected and the team tried to win earlier than expected rather than "trust the process" and be a garbage team that loses 95+ games for four years. How dare Rogers open up the wallet so that the FO could sign guys like Springer, Ryu and Gausman to long term FA contracts! Should have been a bag of s*** team like the Rays that trade all of their key players early, no one watches or goes to their games, has one of the lowest franchise values and despite all the fellating from baseball message board nerds, still has exactly zero World Series victories. This team has various weaknesses - namely conditioning apparently because if Manoah and Guerrero were performing to expectations it would be 20 games over .500 right now - but a willingness to compete isn't one of them. You hear the same s*** over and over on the Jays, Raptors and Leafs. The "smart" sports fans wish they would trade their core early for prospects. No, this isn't how a big market team owned by a billionaire corporation that knows how to suck Canadians out of their money operates. If you want to cheer for a team that trades all of their decent players early to try to keep payroll low and game the system to the point that players seethe during a CBA negotiation, just go ahead and cheer for small market teams like the Rays. It's exhausting listening to you people. STILL bitching about the Donaldson trade that happened 5 years ago. But does the FO get any credit for using Francisco Liriano like a chess master? Nope! It's like you all think that Atkins and Shapiro are looking at the farm system and contract situation out to 2025 and are twiddling their thumbs going "do-dee-do". They obviously have some idea of what they want for the future and will have pretty good payroll flexibility to make it happen. If Bichette doesn't sign long term, they'll get someone else. It won't just be a black hole. Frankly I'm not a fan of all these 13 year $400 million contracts so if that what it takes to sign Bichette, sign me up for a 30+ year old free agent with a 3-5 year contract instead. The Jays have shown to not be afraid to do those kind of deals.

I can assure you that I have not tempered my expectations. The opposite in fact. Jays are going to win the AL East this year.

Not to mention that the sellers are so terrible that it's questionable if they'll even have any players worthy of buying. The likely path forward is to stand pat or make relatively insignificant transactions at the deadline.

Last year the Jays were 16-3 against the Red Sox and single-handedly destroyed their season. It's going to be depressing if Boston returns the favour this year.

Manoah is a 6'7 over 250 pound pro athlete (of sorts) in his early 20's. The amount of caloric intake he needs just to maintain his weight must be through the roof. What the hell is this guy doing? If the Jays can get Ryu to lose weight in his late 30's, getting Manoah under control should be a cakewalk.

This might be the worst contract dished out in the "new era" of sports where front offices supposedly have the inside track to efficiency stats and can value players properly. Even if FVV is underrated relative to his stats and perception, paying over $40 million per year completely throws it out the window. Plus it's a matter of timing. FVV makes great sense as a good 4th option on a contender, like he was on the Raptors when they won. This spending moves the needle absolutely zero for Houston for next year and likely the year after. By the time they actually get good (assuming some of their young guys pan out) and could use the cap space for internal and FA contracts, they'll have a 30+ VanVleet clogging up the payroll. Just dumb. So dumb that it actually stings less that the Raptors lose him. Now as for the journey man the Lakers picked off the scrap heap that the Raptors just gave a 2 year contract to, let's hope they know something we don't and it's not just another desperate Baynes-like overpay. Raptors don't exactly have a sparkling history when it comes to FA picks so I'm not optimistic.

LMAO. I knew there was inflation but this is ridiculous.

To pursue his sumo wrestling career?

I f***ed up by not taking my victory lap on this while I could. Probably jinxed Manoah in the process.

So any of the nerds in here care to do a deep dive of what's wrong? Velocity? Spin rate? Fat sweat % too high?

The Jays are 8-5 against Houston over the last two seasons despite being outscored 62 to 48 in those 13 games. Just a tidbit I'd like to share because fans of the team always remember when it goes the other way but conveniently forget when the Jays are on the receiving end of the luck factor.

Rangers aren't winning that division. It's 50/50 if they even make the playoffs. So don't visualize the Jays path through the AL based on today's standings. Part of the reason why I'm so confident in the Jays is that...well just look at every other team over .500. No team stands out as dominant or unbeatable. Even the Rays mirage is starting to be exposed a bit now. The American League is merely running up the tally against two historical piles of s***.

Not to rain on your smug parade but you're using the wrong number in the numerator of your equation.

You're just upset because you used to be King Downer now you're not even in the top 10 anymore.

This forum has gone to hell since Boxcar has stopped posting. His battles were entertaining. These are just cringe. You are all lame.

"Discovered" ok...just for fun I decided to check out his Twitter. The second thing on his feed is a retweet wishing Trump to be back as President and general right-wing political stuff all the way down. His personal politics shouldn't be an issue, but if it is, why did these Sherlock Holmes enthusiasts wait until now? Not like the guy was in hiding about it. And then you brought this cancer here to I guess spark a discussion? Shame on you.

Every whiny message I see on here I add $5 to one of my Jays season bets (Win AL East, win 90+ games, win WS). This forum has proven time and time again to be the perfect contrarian indicator.