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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    True. Its reallly interesting to see how the relief pitching position has evolved in the past 20 years.
  2. John_Havok
    Its kind of hard to compare honestly, back then (looking ta say 2004) only 10 relievers had a K/9 at 10 or higher (Brad Lidge.... wtf! that was a massive year for him). In 2022, there was 65 relievers with a k/9 over 10.
  3. John_Havok
    And he was incredible that first year. Then Tommy John... then an average year, then complete crap and he was DFA in year 4. They realistically got 1 good year out of that deal
  4. John_Havok
    The marine layer and humidity.
  5. John_Havok
    You're that confident that his defense isn't going to tank any potential bat gains from 2022?
  6. John_Havok
    Then you didnt actually read what I wrote, or understood the article.
  7. John_Havok
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back-at-the-2022-zips-projections/ A perfectly timed fangraphs article. Anyone who wonders about projection systems, just go through the list of the biggest misses on the plus and minus side and you should notice a trend. Generally, the largest misses on either side are due to breakouts, very limited data from the MLB and relying on minor league numbers, or falls off cliffs.
  8. John_Havok
    That's a very meaningless statement unless you can point to some flaw in the projection systems that only seems to impact Teoscar, or players just like him. For example, RA DIckey generally outperformed projections and systems regularly because those systems can't account for unicorns. Teoscar is not a unicron kind of hitter.
  9. John_Havok
    Projections are never perfect for any player. But they're generally pretty correct for most.
  10. John_Havok
    There are no projection system out there that has Teo as a 4+ win player in 2023. If Seattle has their own internal one that does, i'd love to see it's rationale. simply taking the average WAR of someone's past 3 years is not a projection system that holds any merit.
  11. John_Havok
    No, thye make the move thinking he's a 2 win floor player, with 4+ win upside. There's no way they go into the trade seeing Teo as a 4+ WAR projection.
  12. John_Havok
    Last season batting order 1-2-3 was the best in the majors cumulatively. 4-9 were the worst.
  13. John_Havok
    One of the pitchers names is literally Junk. Janson Junk. That's an 80 grade pitcher name.
  14. John_Havok
    Because wanting a stadium that isn't a monstrosity and built within the past 30 years is so terrible? I get it, the renovations are better than not renovating. But even better than renovations would be an implosion and a ground up rebuild to something modern.
  15. John_Havok
    I dunno. Maybe in a league full of guys throwing 95+, her throwing 80-83 will make her a change of pace nightmare for timing. Either that, or complete batting practice.
  16. John_Havok
    Guaranteed he's going to Tampa. Them signing Bellinger for 1 year would be the 100% typical Rays move.
  17. John_Havok
    All that's missing here is about 2 tons of dynamite and a match.
  18. John_Havok
    What do think Bellinger ends up getting this season? Obviously a lower number with incentives and/or an opt-out, but what number would a team even be comfortable with as a base salary? 8 million? 10?
  19. John_Havok
    For Teo to post a 5 WAR season, he would need to have the best season of his career, both on O and D. I doubt that happens. I suspect Teo would be more in the 2-3 WAR range again.
  20. John_Havok
    Yup always. Literally no other transaction he has done has been anything other than trading good players for worse players to save money. It’s truly amazing how the win totals and payroll have steadily climbed in the last few years despite this tactic.
  21. John_Havok
    If you want that extra nugget of hope, he doesn’t have to go through the posting system, so he’s a true free agent. No posting fee, just a contract.
  22. John_Havok
    True, but in Nimmos case those tools have translated on the field to much greater success. So, while you would absolutely expect non-star level play in a few years, the win-now thought process would probably allow for his signing. That said, if there's a CF trade out there somewhere that nets the CF equivalent of Nimmo that's 23 that can be done without being raked over the coals, that would be preferrable for sure. The OBP shouldnt even trend down that much, and he's proven that he doesnt need massive pop to be useful offensively.
  23. John_Havok
    Possibly, but a 130 WRC+ CF with plus D (not elite D) is a pretty valuable asset, regardless of how many other options there aer in free agency at the same position. LIke, I dont really see any of the SS available this year taking less than market value just because there's 4 of them available - unless they are willing to take hometown discount or AA hypnotizes one of their agents. Actually, looking at the last few seasons, Nimmo is basically Springer, only a few years younger. 20-25 million per year is probably what he should be getting. Probably on a 6-8 year length. Springer signed his 6/150m at age 31, Nimmo is 29. 8 years and around 200M would not be shocking at all
  24. John_Havok
    Twins new jerseys/logos for next season. Thoughts?
  25. John_Havok
    I don't know what numbers youre looking at then. Dude is an absolutely solid player that can play defense in CF on par with Springer. His value doesnt come from HRs though, its from getting on base and hitting the gaps.
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