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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Something else Tom said is also at play here.... evaluating the play vs evaluating the player. When evaluating the play, scooping, picking, jumping, stretching etc.... all valuable when it comes to each individual play. But when every 1B does an adequate job at those plays nearly all the time, the value on the player is lessened.
  2. John_Havok
    Sure would be nice to win a bloody game against Baltimore and Boston going down the stretch though.
  3. John_Havok
    Surely do love his skillset, but should the Jays really be looking to add another long term deal to the pile at that dollar value?
  4. John_Havok
    Apparently the numbers have been run, 2-3 runs +/- per season from the best one above average to the worst. I truly think you guys have a fundamentally flawed view of how well every 1b does with this type of play virtually all of the time. It has value, just not the value you want to give it because they all do it well.
  5. John_Havok
    The line at 1b is probably much much much thinner than most when specifically referencing picks from the dirt and other such events.
  6. John_Havok
    I'm not weighing the routine plays, I'm willing to bet there are thousands of pick, jump and stretch catches by 1b across baseball every year that are easily comparable by people who have access to the data. Take any average Jays game with Vlad alone and you see probably 3-5 every game. double that(2 teams playing in every game) and multiply by the total number of games in a season and you have a quick and dirty estimate of the number of total plays that fit that description. That would easily number in the thousands. Then, youd have to grade them by degree of difficulty and makeability using readily available statcast data (readily available to them... not us) and then see who makes more or less than average and break down the run assessments to each make or miss. The vast majority of these plays get made. I think you are currently under the belief that even the average 1b doesn't make as many routine or even semi-hard picks on a regular basis... when they do.
  7. John_Havok
    And overall as mentioned by Tom in the other thread, over the course of a season... thousands of plays, 1 guy vs the next might be +/- 2-3 runs vs the average 1B. It's a thing, it's just not that different from one 1b to the next.
  8. John_Havok
    Walker is playing the wrong position though, he's a 3B they switched to playing the OF because they have Arenado had nowhere else to play him. He's one reason they could possibly look at moving Arenado more seriously if they can get a return that makes sense.
  9. John_Havok
    You're still not quite grasping the full situation. It's absolutely possible for a defender to be really good one year, and then average or worse the next, just like it's possible for hitters to be really good one year, and then average or worse the next. This idea that if something can't be perfectly quantified down to the tiniest variance and detail that it becomes completely unreliable is a terrible way to look at things.
  10. John_Havok
    Naw, it's just the desk job of MLB players.
  11. John_Havok
    I'll boil it down then to an actual question that could be answered. Is there a way to add the skill of 1b with picking balls in the dirt, throwing guys out across the diamond, and other skills specific to 1b into some kind of additional defensive value to 1b? For example, right now OAA would give credit to another IF for fielding a ground ball, and throwing "wild" to 1B and requiring the 1b to make a pick, stretch, jumping catch etc... that may other wise result in an error for the IF and the runner getting on base.
  12. John_Havok
    Would it vary based on stealing or being caught stealing 2nd vs 3rd vs home and/or the number of outs at the time? Like, how run expectancy would change? I’m thinking Elly de la Cruz stealing all three bases in like 30 seconds the other night might be worth more than just stealing 2nd three separate times.
  13. John_Havok
    Mozeliak - “We’re going to trade people.” Love this kind of in-depth quote.
  14. John_Havok
    dang, all i get when googling my name is some guy who does black light art with naked women. Actually, that's not bad.
  15. John_Havok
    when calculating xBA, do you think it's possible to start incorporating spray angle into it's formulation?
  16. John_Havok
    Possible, but... one thing the recent changes in MILB have done with the reduction in teams and levels... college baseball has never had more talent in it. It is at least somehwat plausible that the talent coming out of d1 these days is much better than 5 years ago.
  17. John_Havok
    Says alot about how the indutry sees the top 3 picks of this draft when they immediately get slotted into top 4, 5 and 6 spots in the entire minor league system
  18. John_Havok
    Naw, just type out the novella. I have further stuff on 1b too, just want you to cover yours in case mine is a lot of duplication
  19. John_Havok
    defense thread connor, if he has time im sure we could get into an offense thread also
  20. John_Havok
    If you had to self-critique OAA in any way, what improvements would you shoot for?
  21. John_Havok
    How much, if at all, is OAA influenced by the number of opportunities a player gets ?
  22. John_Havok
    Yeah, Adams is a guy thats been really wild from the getgo, and i can forsee the argument stating Aroldis is just as bad right now... which is true, but Aroldis is also coming off virtually his whole career of being utterly dominant with that same K rate and BB rate under 4 ... it's only recent seasons he's bean near 6 BB/9 so he's definitely going to be getting more rope than a guy who comes up for 5 innings strikes out 10 but also walks 8.
  23. John_Havok
    Take those same names and show their career BB/9, that should answer the question.
  24. John_Havok
    My question about OAA, i know it takes player positioning into account, batted ball data, runner speed, and a few other things for infielders. My question is, for a 1b who is positioned at a certain spot, RH glove, and a ball goes down the line just far enough to get past him... does OAA compare him strictly to other batted ball events where the 1b that started in relatively the same spot and relatively the same batted ball velocity and batted ball location to determine whether or not another 1b would have made the play? Or is it just a simpler... the guy has X amount of time to get to the ball and then X amount of time to convert it to the out and just determines whether or not that is possible with varying degrees of difficulty?
  25. John_Havok
    Couldn’t pick a Jay, no bench option….f*** Texas…..Ohtani wasn’t worth picking pointswise, and Hays can suck a dick. That left two Rays. 50/50 ….
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