John_Havok

His market won't develop near fast enough for him to truly weigh them against a QO. QO decisions come really early in the offseason

No to Dbacks and Orioles. Anyone else is fine but the Braves are the lowest on the fine list

Cimber and Espinal are both releases imo. Espinal won't be expensive but he is easily replaced by Clement. Richards should be traded as I think having so multiple "meh fastball/excellent changeup" guys isn't ideal, though it can also be beneficial if they never pitch on the same days. I just find that there's enough in house options and FA targets that he could be dealt to get something half decent back. And use the savings in conjunction with other savings to try and keep Hicks. The rest are no brainer keeps but some trade possibilities also exist

The biggest IF of them all, IF you can get max value. No idea who would be willing to pay that for Vlad.

Subject matter aside, are people like, incapable, of like, not saying like…like 15 like times like every sentence like?

The only Atkins that should be associated with this team over the winter is the name listed on the cover of the books given to Vlad and Kirk regarding their off season eating plans

90 wins isn't mediocrity. ...well at least it's upper level mediocrity bordering on low level well above avergae

Agree, but alot of those decisions are on Rivera. His errors in sending runners probably outweighs all the individual mistakes added together

Well if they do fire Schneider, I hear Buck Showalter is available.

Is Spencer and jfas still there? Pulling Berrios really feels like a jfas move to me.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?sortColumn=team_name&sortDirection=asc Kirk sucks because he's fat and slow, he generally makes good decisions. VLad sucks because he's fat and slow and makes horrible decisions, some pay off, some dont. Positive value from advancing is at least some glimmer of hope that he can get better....maybe. Belt is just old and slow, makes good decisions Springer is still pretty good, i think he suffers from the occasional lapse but also being sent to die by Rivera. Espy is middle of the road. Brain cramps from aggression and he has gotten slower. Bo is the same as Espy, takes some dumb risks, but generally doesn't run himself off the bases alot (recent issues notwithstanding). Another guy who seems to get gunned at home alot being sent by the windmill 3b coach. Chappy is a pretty good baserunner but this year especially it seems like he started trying to do too much at times. Biggio - steady. Merrifield - excellent speed but made some really uncharacteristic mistakes this year getting thrown out way more than he should. KK - Jesus on the bases. he can do no wrong Varsho - Better than Jesus. Jansen - about average, always makes good choices, just limited by catcher speed and Rivera being stupid. Imagine where theyd be with LG (0 runs)over Varsho(+4) and Teo(-4) over KK(+3) right now, would be an all time low record for baserunning idiocy

Yeah, its not like Atkins is incapable of change either, for all we know he's already got the paperwork being processed to fire the hitting coaching staff and implement a new ideology of putting balls into the seats. Its not out of the realm of possibility that a GM can't make philosophical changes between seasons. Everyone has to answer to the people higher on the totem pole though so it will be interesting to see what happens in the offseason. Whether Atkins stays or goes will largely depend on how Shaprio feels about their post-mortem season meeting about what specific strategies Atkins has to fix things for next season. Its important to remember for people though that the lack of runs is not THE PROBLEM. Lack of runs is the result of the real problem which is a flawed hitting philosophy overall. Misdiagnosing symptoms as problems is how you make horrible corrective decisions.

I dont mean just the Jays though, even these examples in totality are a piss poor sample size overall, which leads back to my original point about remembering the bad over the good. I mean more of a playoff baseball overall, there's probably dozens of examples of early hooks that worked out fine. I am admittedly far too lazy to go look for them though.

Yes, they did with Richards 3 times who was absolutely nailz while doing it too. Otherwise no, every pitcher who started the other 159 games were SPs. Gausman, Berrios, Manoah, Bassitt, Ryu and Kikuchi and Parsons (using the term SP with Parsons loosely)

Well, im sure if people looked they could find plenty of examples of "early" hooks that paid off just as well. Again, not defending this move, just saying its far easier to remember s*** that went wrong vs right because things going right is what's supposed to happen, it doesn't stand out. The reason Bautista's HR is that much more memorable and legendary isnt because he hit a HR to take the lead in a playoff game, but because of the comedy of errors that occured the entire inning leading up to it. Encarnacion walked off the Orioles in a series and his HR isn't spoke of with near the status of Bautista's.

Firstly, I'll say I didn't agree with the hook but it doesn't show a misuse of analytics. Analytically it was the right move to get a lefty facing Lefty's as Berrios splits vs lhb wasn't great. In a vacuum it was the right call. But it was still wrong.

Its fine to try and put someone else's model into place, but to do so you need to have the personnel too. It's easy to try and identify undervalued guys, its another thing entirely to know what underlying issues are causing that player to be undervalued and then take the right steps to fix the issues. The philosophy is easy to duplicate but the execution is not.

Here's Varsho's 2022 Splits for Pulled rate on the ground, fly balls and line drives in order of Pull, Centre, Oppo, rounded to the nearest Half percent grounders 64% 26%, 10% fly balls 42%, 36%, 22.5% line drives 60.5%, 26%, 14% 2023 grounders 66%, 25%, 10% fly balls 37.5%, 27.5%, 35% line drives 50.5%, 30%, 19.5% its no wonder his power is down. he fell victim to the same "up the middle - oppo" ******** system the Jays were clearly preaching.

I’m not saying they have to, just saying it’s pretty likely.

No s***. Whatever **** reported the other **** for saying **** is the ****iest **** who ever ****ed.

Bullpen: Keep Romano, Green, Yimi, Swanson, Mayza, Cabrera, for the active roster. Cimber is a non tender, Parsons an obvious DFA. I’d try to trade Richards because he’s only 1 year left, he still has value but Romano, Mayza, Cabrera and Swanson need raises and I’d rather give his money to other guys. I’d really want to try and bring back Hicks but with the other guys getting raises I just don’t see it happening unless he takes a pretty significant discount. Still have open spots for guys like Pearson, Danner, Pop, Zulu, Francis (if he’s not in the rotation) and other guys not currently on the 40 man to fight over. Green is a bit of a wildcard here as I don’t think I’d want him for 3 more years at 9, but he would definitely decline his option then, and then the Jays would owe him high AAV for only 2 years..or he walks. Best case really is if he takes his 1 year 6.25 option after the jays decline their first option. Doubt that happens, but it could if he feels like a good year can set him up for another multiyear deal for 2025 and beyond. But if something weird happens and green isn’t back, throw that money at Hicks. White is another wildcard for the pen as I’m sure he’ll get a shot at a rotation spot if he’s still with the team given his late season successes at AAA. I’m not entirely sure if he’s a free agent or if he just becomes rule 5 eligible so I’ll withhold a full opinion until that is clarified. Rotation: 4 names are set in stone unless a trade happens so the 5th spot right now is likely between Francis, Tiedemann(if they can manage innings effectively enough) Manoah (maybe?) the minor league guys and White depending on his status. There’s tons of back end starters in free agency this off-season too so #5 could possibly come from outside the org. Lineup: Goodbye Chapman, KK, Merrifield, Belt, Heineman, Eden. Jimenez, Lukes and Lopez could be DFA and lost but…whatever. Biggio stays as a bench guy. I think Horwitz gets a shot at being DH. Clement on the bench as I believe he is out of options after this season. C: Jansen 1b: Vlad 2b: Schneider SS: Bo 3b: Possible internal competition of Barger and Orelvis though I suspect this will be filled externally for a glove first stop gap LF: ? - must not be brain dead defensively or on the bases. Would really help to hit left handed with actual power. CF: Varsho RF: Springer DH: Horwitz Bench: Kirk Biggio Clement Backup OF who can play passable CF Rule 5 possible adds: Macko, Lantigua, White(if eligible - see above), there’s a bunch more but these 3 are the most likely imo.

Yeah for sure, guess we’re going for a blackout.

Yup. Lots of singles? Check Bad results with RISP? Check No power to be seen from anyone? Check. Multiple 400 foot outs to CF? Check. Inexcuseable baserunning errors at key times? Check Bingo!

Yep

That’s an unhittable pitch. Gross