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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. And with properly structure deferred money, that 300m wouldn't even be 300m, it would just look like it on paper.
  2. What political bait? Even in sports, first offense is a light suspension, 2nd one is longer, 3rd one longer still, etc.
  3. Good questions, because with Romano (TBD, lets say 10M just guessing?- 2025) , Swanson (4m? - 2025) Bo (11.2m 2025) Bassit (21m 2025), Gausman(23m - 2026), Green (10.5m - 2026) and Springer(25m - 2026) coming off the books, that's 105 million coming off by the end of 2026, 46m alone heading into 2026. Yes, there will be some guys in there needing arb raises in there, but as of now, nobody really prohibitive. Maybe Manoah if he rights the ship between now and then as he's Arb 2 and 3 for 2026 and 2027. Varsho, not exactly looking overly expensive at the moment. Ditto Kirk. Here's how it looks for 2025 as it stands now: 2025 Arb needs: Arb 1 - Pop, Clement, Manoah (all should be cheap, Manoah will get a bit more for his big 2022) Arb 2 - Kirk (gonna guess 4m) Arb 3 - Romano (im guessing 10M), Cabrera (2.5), Varsho (7-8 maybe? -arb 4 in 2026), Arb 4 - Vlad (lets just say 30) THe rest are all league minimum pre-arb. With the roughly 105m in tax space... the above eats up around 55-60. Add in at least 40 for Soto (hypothetically) and there's still the need for at least 1 starter, some pen arms, and a 3B. I think if the Jays are going after Soto, and i believe they should, they're very much going to be a tax team for 2025 without some pretty shrewd trades.
  4. I agree ... assuming its not ludicrous. Like, i would love the Jays to go get Soto and lock up Vlad at the same time. They're it for the next 10 years. Bo comes back next year, and if he has a more typical Bo season, I don't see how they don;t make noise in the playoffs with a competant starting staff and pen. Then you let Bo walk, take the 4th round comp pick, and figure out how to surround Vlad and Soto with talent for the remainder of their contracts.
  5. How about Baserunning and defense? I mean, if you told me right now Vlad was going to put up 45.6 fWAR over the next 9 seasons, i'd give him his 10 year deal at 350 million without blinking. I don't think he will though... bat might be great, baserunning and D will not be.
  6. I'm presenting information, not taking a position. but if youre referring to the Vlad > Freeman post from before, ... no. Freeman is right now, a better overall player than Vlad is. My posts are just comparing the two players from their own debut's through their age 25 season. One could reasonably argue that Vlad has been as valuable as Freeman over that stretch, given that they're basically a push. What remains to be seen is what Vlad does from 26-34. Freeman has put up 45.6 fWAR over that stretch... gotten better defensively than he was from 20-25, and has been basically a neutral baserunner, while putting up a 149 wRC+. Do you think Vlad is going to do that from 26-34?
  7. Lets just look at that then! Guerrero Freeman
  8. No.... But, here's the wRC+ leaderboards sorted from the date of Vlad's MLB debut to today.
  9. The Twins received bad news following right-hander Joe Ryan’s MRI, as he’s been diagnosed with a Grade 2 teres major strain that’ll threaten the remainder of his season, manager Rocco Baldelli announced to the Twins beat this morning (X link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It’s a more serious injury than the Twins initially anticipated, and while Baldelli didn’t entirely rule Ryan out for the remainder of the season, he acknowledged that it’ll take “weeks to months” for the right-hander to recover.
  10. repeat offenders tend to get progressively longer punishments, in all facets of life.
  11. Yes. Any cash received by the Jays counts as payroll they didn't pay. Any cash they send out in deals counts as payroll they did pay.
  12. Jays traded Cam Eden to the Yankees for cash.
  13. What's really interesting (to me at least) is putting Vlad and Soto right beside each other in comparisons. Soto ... going to get paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid. Vlad is just gonna get paid.
  14. New guy from San Diego is already on the way up to cover Cabreras paternity leave
  15. One would hope that him knowing he's the defacto #1 catcher, he's going to put in some work in the offseason. Maybe it's that knowledge of being #1 that will be the light switch going on.
  16. Jays picked up a reliever from San Diego - Blue Jays Acquire Tommy Nance From Padres The Blue Jays announced that left-hander Génesis Cabrera has been placed on the paternity list with right-hander Tommy Nance selected to take his place on the active roster. The Blue Jays’ 40-man roster count was at 37 after their deadline dealings but now jumps to 38. Nance had been with the Padres on a minor league deal but the Jays acquired him for cash yesterday, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com on X. Though the trade deadline has passed, certain swaps are still allowed. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored the different ways teams can still add to their rosters after the deadline and noted that trades are still allowed if the players involved have not been on a 40-man roster this year. Nance, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Padres in December and had been with their Triple-A club all year until this trade. He has thrown 33 1/3 innings over his 26 appearances in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League with a 4.05 earned run average. He struck out 23.3% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.3% clip and got batters to hit grounders at a 51% rate.
  17. Hes still working back from an oblique injury. Really only had 3 terrible games this season all in April. May/June he was as good as usual.
  18. Grayson Rodriguez to the IL - The Orioles announced today that Rodriguez has been placed on the 15-day IL with right lat/teres discomfort, retroactive to August 4.
  19. Trade discussion was basically killed by his injury status. No team would be paying full sticker price when they don't know a guy is going to back before September, another season of control or not.
  20. I don't have much to say on Bo, simply because it's very obvious he's going to free agency and there's less than a 0% chance he signs an extension. My rationale: 1) history of negotiations with him. he turned down raises in pre-arb years because he thought they weren't high enough and chose to earn league minimum to make a point (Manoah did too after his big year). 2) recent free agent deals signed by mid to late 20's aged shortstops.
  21. John Schneider on MLB network radio at 11 am EDT if anyone is interested and wants to post a synopsis
  22. I was checking his swing decisions on savant...it's the same thing we saw with multiple players last year, doing f*** all woth pitches over the heart of the plate and is terrible on the edges. 0 swing runs and -5 take runs on heart of the plate pitches. But you're right in that his other major issue is Sweet Spot LA. From ml average in 2022 and 2023 to...bottom of the barrel in 2024
  23. And yet....you still need to score runs to win games. Regardless of the notion that great pitching can shut down great hitting, nobody wins a baseball game scoring 0 runs. Very few games are won scoring 1 run or even 2. Hell even 3 runs you're still on the s*** end of the stick more often than not.
  24. I disagree to a point. Making better swing decisions would likely result in better quality contact and thus...and increase in some numbers. That, and cleaning up the hand movement.
  25. Horwitz at 1b... just doesn't play imo. At 2B he's acceptable, but it would not surprise me to find out that he's not really all that good defensively there. Right now he's holding his own at +1 OAA. Offensively, pitchers have started adjusting to him over the past month (93 wrc+ for July after his scorching 165 in June) so we'll see how he adjusts back. So far in the august SSS he's at 101.
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