Grant77

Rays: 5 Caminero 7 Arozarena 0 Ramirez 3 Paredes 4 Mead 9 Lowe 8 Margot 2 Bethancourt 6 Walls 1 Armstrong Blue Jays: 0 Springer 9 Biggio 3 Guerrero Jr. 6 Bichette 2 Kirk 8 Kiermaier 5 Chapman 4 Merrifield 7 Varsho 1 Ryu

Does the answer change if hitter A is a good runner and hitter B is Alejandro Kirk? Is it possible to estimate the wRC+ of the 2 players?

I think the point still stands, despite Belt's wonky back.

Sept 30 (3:07pm) Double points Saturday Bichette - 2 Point - Vladdy - 2 Point - Candy Maldonado Springer - 4 Points - Varsho - 8 Points - Chapman - 8 Points - Merrifield - 10 Points - Kirk - 10 Points - JaysAllMighty Biggio - 10 Points - bones10, Grant77 Kiermaier - 14 Points - Omar Off the bench: 20 Points - Jonn

Agreed. Then you call up Bowden Francis and throw him to the wolves tomorrow.

Springer, Biggio, Bo, Vlad, and Chapman are a combined 18-37 against Shawn Armstrong. Small sample, but big results. Maybe we can actually score some early runs.

Definitely pitcher A in this day and age. The hitter question is really interesting. Are we assuming both are average baserunners?

Adolis Garcia wearing a balaclava in 12C weather is hilarious, but he got a HR at least. I'd love to see him when it's actually cold out.

I believe it's because fangraphs deems that Baltimore has been quite lucky and isn't as talented as their record indicates. Of course, Seattle was one of the luckiest teams in history last year and it kept going into the playoffs, so who the hell knows.

There's a scenario where they split the last 2 games and win out meaning Seattle is 89-73 and Houston is 90-72. That means we would have to win 3 more games, which combined with their loss, gives a magic number 4. That's highly unlikely, but I think I did it right. Either way, the playoffs will be easy to make. Best case scenario in my view at least is that Houston just sweeps Seattle and we can tank our way to a matchup with the Twins.

I believe the magic number is 3 if this game holds, but I could be mistaken. It's 4 if we're looking specifically at Seattle, but the Houston thing makes it more complicated.

Seattle is such a weird offense. They are really strong up the middle with Crawford and Raleigh having breakout years but total s*** on the corners. Suarez and Teo lead the league in strikeouts. Kelenic would be ahead of them had he played enough and has an 89 wRC+ since April. Ty France hasn't reverted to a replacement level 1B. Imst3ad of addressing it, they run out s***** ass AAA players like Canzone and Moore. It should be an easy problem to address in the offseason, but more than any team, they have a knack for destroying good hitters.

Him and Saucedo have been getting a fair bit of innings there lately. They probably miss Swanson a lot.

I hope he doesn't go to the hitter's graveyard. I'd like to see him stay in the NL and succeed, as he's fun to watch and still on an upper tier HOF trajectory.

I know how the metrics work, don't be so condescending. I'm trying to spark an interesting conversation and all you seem interested in is having a pissing match to show everyone how smart you think you are. Your eyes must be brown because you are so full of s*** about LGJ. You're doing the exact thing you accuse me of, where you suit your eye test to fit the metrics. He's still an absolute butcher out there and you can see an example of it in almost every game. The notion that I can't recognize something like consistently poor jumps, bad routes, and dropped balls, but you can, is utterly ridiculous. Nobody suggested giving out awards without taking metrics into account, but we do have to account for the wild swings that defensive metrics take from year to year. Even a guy like Tom Tango would admit that they are the most inconsistent and unreliable stat in the game. You know who does have time to watch a lot of these players? Voters. They should absolutely use qualitative data when voting, since they are ostensibly the most qualified people to do so. Mart Champan was healthy all of last year and clearly fielding at a platinum glove level. The metrics say he was average. Now you're saying that you rate him as a bad defender (lately), but the metrics say he's elite. Inconsistency and unreliability. Why is DRS suspect only when it comes to Moreno? If I had a predetermined opinion from seeing a lot of him, then I would have just said so. Catchers are hard to evaluate in comparison to outfielders, at least in my opinion. I relied on the metrics to help fill in the gaps. That's exactly where they are most useful.

Why do the metrics now tell us that he's the best third baseman in the league, when we have all watched him for 140 games and know damn well that he's the same fielder he was last year, maybe even a bit worse due to age? Last year would not have been based on reputation for anyone that watched him. The guy is clearly on a different level than everyone else. We don't need metrics to tell us that Aaron Judge has 80 grade power, in the same way that we don't need to them to tell that Chapman has 80 grade defense. Why are Lourdes Gurriel Jr and Teoscar Hernandez given absolutely elite metrics when we have seen both for 500+ games and know damn well that they are awful fielders? Guys taking consistently bad routes to balls, while regularly botching routine plays is not something that takes a super scout to notice. Do you truly LGJ is on the same level as Kiermaier, as DRS says? I watched 2 games last week and he came in on a double that went over his head and dropped a catchable ball on the warning track. Nothing has changed with him, but I haven't seen KK do that a single time. I don't doubt that the metrics are probably right a lot of time and have some merit when comparing players, but they are wildly inconsistent for a skill that seems to be one of the most consistent in the game. Other than rare outliers like Semien, defensive skill sees incremental gains and slow, age related declines. Kevin Pillar comes to mind as an obvious example, you could see him lose a bit each year. Even different defensive metrics disagree wildly on certain players, like Gabriel Moreno having a 3 WAR difference based purely on defense. I just can't buy that players go back and forth between Manny Ramirez calibre and gold glove level from year to year. You see that way, way too often for them to be completely trusted. I'll continue to use metrics for players I haven't seen a lot of and a combination of that and the eye test for players that I have seen.

Chapman was clearly the best 3B last year and didn't get the award. Even Orioles fans were puzzled and stunned by that one. He's got the best UZR of any primary 3B in the league, so there's that. On the other hand, Lourdes and Teo are ranked 7th and 14th overall in that category when both are obviously below average still, so who the hell knows. Giving any credence to defensive metrics is a fool's errand. The eye test still reigns supreme and it tells me that your thoughts are spot on. Chapman, KK, and Varsho are the best at their positions. Kirk gives up the fewest wild pitches in the game, while also being a good framer with a solid arm. Good call on that one.

You should just hate Boston like me if that's your criteria. They have the worst fans in the history of sports by a Grand Canyon sized margin.

To hell with Seattle. They didn't have a playoff calibre roster last year or this year. I hate seeing s***** teams make the playoffs and I hate seeing the Jays implode against said s***** teams. I'm no fan of Houston, but their team is far more deserving. Either way, I hope they lose to the Twins or Rays.

I would direct his attention to the Rangers bullpen (ERA of 5) or the Mariners and Twins lineups (most K's in the league, team average of .240), or the Astros losing 5 games to the Royals if he's looking for flaws.

Isn't it the same scenario if Houston sweeps Seattle? This team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs if they can't win 2 of the last 6, which more or less assures a playoff spot. We almost deserve to miss the playoffs if we can't do that against two (probably) disinterested teams that aren't playing starters.

I didn't have time to comment during the game, but I saw some uncharacteristic plays from the Rays during this series and especially during this game. -Margot giving up on the play and jogging after Springer's hit certainly allowed him to score. It reminds me of Tapia's one from last year where the fielder did the same thing. - Curtis Mead not hustling on an easy double, getting thrown out while on cruise control. -Harold Ramirez not paying attention and costing a run by not tagging. - Isaac Paredes angrily throwing the ball at the ground after a near collision in the field. Certainly not all is well in paradise. I hope there's some real friction and the sloppy play continues.

Aaron Judge catches that without even jumping haha.

I'd love it if we could move Garcia's contract and spend the money elsewhere. I think a guy like Pop or Danner could slide in and provide similar value.

I'd be OK with that, but only if they think Barger or Martinez are ready to fill in when he gets injured. If they aren't ready then I think we need a more reliable option.