Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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I am all for offloading Revere for whatever they can get to save money, so that would be a big help. I don't even care if it's one interesting pitching prospect who is three years away, to be honest. Pompey is a better in-house option than Revere and Saunders very well might be too, so Ben needs to be gone. Backloading the Iwakuma deal could work too. 10/16/16 + getting rid of Revere would get them basically to budget for 2016. I guess Smoak at say $2M hypothetically has a small amount of trade value, but they'd need to find a very specific trade partner. A team that needs a part time 1B and doesn't have much space in the budget could be willing to give up something small.
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More correctly, I think, if the Reds trade Chapman someone like Revere just would not be the type of player they would be looking for, at all. They are in rebuild mode and they'd want a top prospect. Chapman is still an asset vs. his salary, but if they trade him before the season then you also need to factor in the value of the QO compensation pick that he will almost certainly land a team next offseason. So Chapman could carry a lot of trade value this offseason, especially to teams that are high on the win curve. Chapman for a top hitting prospect in the #26-50 range, or a top pitching prospect in the #11-25 range, would probably be a fair deal. So a fair deal on paper might be Pompey straight up for Chapman.
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14+15+6+4+6 = $45M If the payroll is capped at $140M then they probably only have ~32M to spend.
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"development isn't linear" - said the old wrinkly scout
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Since MLB also has a separate process that gives out "competitive balance picks" based on market size, the true purpose of the free agent compensation pick regime must be to simply sandbag the market for top talent and save owners money. I suppose it also is in the interest of long term parity, since teams that land big ticket free agent talent will lose a high draft pick in the process. This slightly increases that chances that said team will fail at remaining competitive "long term".
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Arbitrary binning process says: 4 teams that got picks are smaller market 5 teams that got picks are bigger market (considering Detroit and Baltimore to be bigger) 5 teams that gave up picks are bigger market 3 teams that gave up picks are small/mid market (M's, Padres, Twins).
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You would need an entirely new system then if your goal is to help small market teams. The system as it currently is constructed probably gives more comp picks to teams with higher payrolls, since they have an increased ability to acquire QO worthy players in the first place. It's also drastically unfair to good but non-elite free agents. It's a contrived and ineffective system, at best.
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Compensation picks just need to go away entirely
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let's do that trade you didn't want to do earlier
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Probably because of that DDL title more than anything.
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I forgot / didn't realize you were from Toronto. Anyway, I am excited to have someone I know inside the Shapiro regime. Hink hated working for the AA crowd but Graydon seemed to enjoy it.
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GD will be happy to have a friend for the summer, finally. Are you going to move in with him and his family?
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Awesome! Third BJMB member to have that internship, lol. Pretty crazy. Is Carruthers graduating this year? Going back to the team too?
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You reapplied I guess? When do they interview and make decisions?
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Sign like, three or four of these guys and make them fight to the death for rotation spots (losers pitch in relief!): Kyle Kendrick 1/$3M (could actually accept a minor league deal) Joe Blanton 1/$4 Brandon Morrow 1/$4 Trevor Cahill 1/$5 Chris Young 1/$6 Rich Hill 1/$6 Tim Lincecum 1/$6 Bartolo Colon 1/$10 Cliff Lee 1/$15 (incentive based - not on Fangraphs list) Try to sign both of these guys if you can (it's okay if they won't): Ryan Madson 1/$5 Tony Sipp 2/$10 Sign one of these f***ers just because: Justin Morneau 1/$7 John Jaso 2/$12 Trade Revere for a SP if possible /offseason
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/ Note that in past years the "crowd’s misses weren’t evenly dispersed, but generally included underestimating the contracts given to more desirable free agents and, in many cases, overestimating the amount received by more ordinary free agents." Pick your targets! Who jumps out as a great deal? Terrible deal?
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McDavid injury is a gut punch for hockey fans. I can't even imagine myself getting back into hockey now for at least a few more months.
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I don't like moving the goal posts at all. His walk rate in 428 PA was comfortably above MLB average. It is what it is.
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ftfy
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On today's episode of Fun With Small Sample Sizes TBH I'd be surprised if he touched 9% too. But the theory says that BB stabilizes in 200 PA, and he had over 400 to reach that 9% number. Also, from watching the entire second half, it certainly seemed like he underwent a skill change. He looked better.
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If you're wondering about Goins' improved BB% and how real it was - walk rate 'stabilizes' in about 200 PA for hitters. So unless he reverts back to his old, terrible skill level - which is entirely possible - then his BB% in 2016 should be at least close to that 9.1% figure. Hopefully this question is irrelevant and he's a bench player for the entire year.
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Things get pretty silly with big contracts, when you can slightly perturb your $/WAR and significantly alter how much a player is hypothetically worth. It's all a little ridiculous at that point and the analysis kind of collapses in on itself.
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MLB offices for the most part don't use "WAR", per se. WAR is a descriptive short hand statistic and is really of little use to a front office. But they would all have internal predictive and descriptive measurements of offensive and defensive run values for every player. Whether or not they roll everything up into one number, who knows. And whether or not the GM and AGMs even care about internal nerd numbers, who knows. Most care. But some executives might prefer to simply classify players based on the 20-80 scale (i.e., this guy is a "role 6" player). I know of one front office that actually had their analytics department translate internal "WAR" into the 20-80 scale, for use by the executives (i.e., "the nerds think he's a role 5 player but I've seen him several times and he's just nothing more than a role 4").
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Probably Shapiro's interview from years ago
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It really doesn't matter. Pick whatever number better suits your argument.
