Laika

4/$50 for Reddick. Changes the calculus. Let me run the numbers... http://www.hyper-ad.com/tutoring/math/calculus/images/prop_deriv604.gif Not worth it!?

You are like my mini-me.

High guy on Gurriel. Very excited to look smart at some point soon.

You're misunderstanding. It's not about can or can't, it's about probabilities and likelihood.

Not if that's the ONLY criteria but if that's one of the most important then yeah. He's got CF chops and a broad skill-set. Big deals! And by "make" I think we mean "make and stick around and not blow chunks immediately and forever"

So Lourdes and Alford are your 1-2 and Vlad is like, 5th at best?

DEPTH OPTIONS IN FREE AGENCY There aren't many (any) good options on the SP market this year but there is no lack of depth options. Lots of interesting guys could be had on one year deals, minor league deals, or to pitch out of the bullpen initially (highlighted.) I've mentioned this before but BUD NORRIS is a must-sign in my world. Must sign! But for me I'd like to see him a pure relief role a la Joe Blanton. Tim Lincecum SP Jhoulys Chacin SP Jake Peavy SP Mat Latos SP C.J. Wilson SP Andrew Cashner SP Doug Fister SP John Danks SP Ivan Nova SP Derek Holland SP Jered Weaver SP Felix Doubront SP Athletics 1 Minor Jesse Chavez SP Angels 1 $5.75MM $5.75MM Jonathon Niese SP R.A. Dickey SP Braves 1 $8MM $8MM Club Tommy Milone SP Ross Detwiler SP Rich Hill SP Edinson Volquez SP Charlie Morton SP Astros 2 $14MM $7MM Brett Anderson SP Jorge de la Rosa SP Jarrod Parker SP Jeremy Hellickson SP Phillies Yes (Accepted) 1 $17.2MM $17.2MM Lucas Harrell SP Matt Harrison SP Kris Medlen SP Henderson Alvarez SP Bartolo Colon SP Braves 1 $12.5MM $12.5MM Jason Hammel SP Alfredo Simon SP Ryan Vogelsong RP / SP Scott Feldman RP / SP Sean O'Sullivan RP / SP Bud Norris RP / SP Jacob Turner RP / SP Dillon Gee RP / SP

Victor Robles OFP 70 — That really good Lorenzo Cain season Likely 60 — Those other Lorenzo Cain seasons Is min satisfied? Lorenzo Cain doesn't win anybody the DDL.

you are wrong 45 below avg 50- fringe average 50 avg 50+ solid average 55 above avg 60 plus 70 double plus 80 elite

Enough lists. Post the results!

Toronto's system has a few who could be #1

Get some better transaction advocacy skills plz

Also Jim Johnson and Hector Rondon

Teams rarely look smart down the road after signing 34 year old stars to free agent deals. I don't really care if EE or JB come back and you guys should start getting used to not having them around.

I dunno. Maybe they don't really like him that much but they picked up the option just to have that safety net. Similar to Toronto extending Smoak. If they re-sign Cespedes then you might see them trade Bruce, maybe even some of the $ to facilitate. Cespedes-Granderson-Conforto-Lagares is probably a better outfield configuration than one involving Bruce.

This will be the fourth of many offseason threads where I'll take a stance and advocate for the Blue Jays to make (or not make) a specific move. I may not actually think Toronto should make every move, but I'll lay out the case for it in order to generate discussion. Toronto should sign Josh Reddick Toronto should NOT trade for Jay Bruce Jay Bruce f***ing blows. He is clearly no longer the player that he was from 2010 to 2013. Back then he was a consistent 30 HR hitter who could be counted on for offensive production that was 20% above the average hitter to go along with competent to above average RF defensive. He was an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and an MVP vote-getter. Bruce has been a replacement level player for three years now. He was exceptionally bad in his last two full seasons for the Reds (79 and 92 wRC+; -0.7 fWAR in total). In 2016 his bat bounced back a little bit (111 wRC+) but the 29 year old had his worst baserunning and defensive year ever and he didn't even reach the 1 WAR mark. He'll be 30 next season so it is sensible to worry that his baserunning and defense true talent have both declined, putting Jay Bruce into the DH discussion. If the trade rumours contain any thread of truth then Toronto has had serious interest in this guy for a year now. I'm still struggling to see the appeal. Do they think they can fix him for some specific reason that is impossible to pick up on paper? We can only hope that the rumours are BS. He's under contract for $13M next year. If Toronto wants a s***** platoon outfielder, they can get one better than Bruce for much cheaper. Matt Joyce? Colby Rasmus has more upside at this point than Bruce and he might take like $8M. Heck, if they have $13M I'd prefer a veteran statue starter in LF such as Beltran or Holliday, both of whom might sign for something around 1/$13. But if Toronto wants to make a wise free agency investment in a viable corner outfield starter for the next few years, there is one on the market. Josh Reddick is a linear upgrade on Jay Bruce in nearly every way. Reddick projects to be an above average hitter and has been for the last three seasons. Reddick makes a surprising amount of contact for a guy who seems to have a reputation as a slugging platoon player - his K rate was under 13% in the last two seasons. Speaking of power, while Reddick's raw HR totals and his career ISO show plus power but nothing extreme, playing his entire career in cavernous pitchers' parks probably masks some pop. For an anecdote, check how much Donaldson's ISO increased when he went from Oakland to Toronto (hint: a lot). Reddick can run the bases. He has been worth nearly 2 full WAR in his career based on positive baserunning alone. He can also catch the ball; his career UZR/150 is +11.1 and you'll remember the Gold Glove he won a few years ago. While his defensive skills may have slipped a bit recently and his numbers have been merely average the last two years, they are still a country mile better than Jay Bruce's. Reddick's biggest wart is that he apparently can't hit lefties at all. His wRC+ against them in his career is a mere 78. Toronto could and probably should deploy him in a platoon with Melvin Upton. All things together, Reddick is a skill package that the projection machine accessible through Fangraphs believes would put up 2.1 WAR next year in 122 games. MLBTR predicts that Reddick will get 3/$36. That's essentially the same AAV as Bruce, and the term is comfortable for a contract that will cover Reddick's age 30-32 seasons. If you factor in a bit of decline and assume he would provide the Jays with 5.5 WAR in three years then he would be worth more than $36 million. However, I think Reddick has some untapped upside as he enters his baseball mid-life. In the best year of his career in 2012 Reddick hit 32 bombs while whiffing 22.4% of the time. He had a .237 ISO against LHP that year. In every year since then he has struck out less often but hit for notably less power. In the recent two seasons he has been platooned more frequently. Josh Reddick doesn't strike me as the type of player that I want striking out just 11% of the time. He should be flexing more often and trying to send balls into orbit. Is it possible that Reddick could benefit from a Toronto organization that clearly is not afraid of the strikeout? Maybe O.Co Coliseum got in his head a bit. Maybe struggles against lefties got in his head too. Maybe Reddick focused too much on making contact these last few years and not enough on doing damage. Maybe the Rogers Centre would provide the shot of confidence that Reddick needs to return to a double-plus power hitter, and maybe as he turns 30 he'll be learned enough to couple that with the solid AVG/OBP + plate discipline skills he demonstrated in the last two years. This is pure conjecture based on the Fangraphs dashboard statistics but the narrative is attractive. But, Toronto doesn't need him to "break out" in order to get value from a 3/$36 deal. In a weak free agent crop, Reddick's act of tanking his own value in Los Angeles presents the opportunity for Toronto to land an average or better corner outfielder for a relatively attractive free agent price. The team needs corner outfielders. Sign Josh Reddick! And for the love of God and all that is holy, don't trade for Jay f***ing Bruce.

He projects to be muuuuuch worse than 93 wRC+ vs RHP going forward. That's his career mark, not his talent! BTS is just illustrating the size of their career splits.

He's not always injured. He had a significant elbow injury last year.

The list of excuses used by Colby Rasmus grows! He is inconsistent because he is a high strikeout, extreme FB hitter. His BABIP has oscillated between .250 and .350 in various full seasons. For whatever random reason his defense has also gone up and down in a similar way. You're not looking for a 100 wRC+ from a strict platoon player though. You want a lot better than that. He only faced LHP in 22% of his PA this year which is fairly low (strict platoon guys get like 11% and non-platoon see over 30%). I would pay him 1/$8 but he would be one of my last choices. There is merit though. High variance player means possible upside on a small deal like that. But I think it's a moot point. Rasmus is probably rock hard at the thought of putting down roots in Trump's new America. #MAGA

That 87 wRC+ projection

Just make everyone's lists public, then everyone can be happy.

Franco has an arm bar? I know it was one of the "criticisms" of Reed. It's such hokey. A red-herring swing "flaw" and nothing more. I hate s*** like that in baseball and it's so prevalent. More often in pitchers.

Do you honestly think AJ Reed sucked this year and will never make it because he has an arm bar?

Ignore the lists from 2, 8, and 11 please.

Yeah it would be a mistake to get overly excited about ANY first base prospect. They fail at such a high rate. Tellez looks good but he'll still probably suck.