Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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Tough offseason for Paxton. I really wonder what he will be offered. You'd think he will be a candidate for a one year pillow contract, but he's also 32 now so for him to pillow it this year and try again at 33 is pretty risky. He's not a 29 year old like Robbie Ray who reasonably has several offseasons to try to and position for a big contract. We might see him sign a shockingly reasonable multi-year deal. Keuchel is basically a year older and got 3/55 last year, coming off of a mediocre 2019. Maybe Paxton would go for a deal worth less money than that (Covid season factor) but with performance bonuses or a vesting option.
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All of these guys are probably signing one year deals this offseason. Fangraphs (not crowdsource) thinks they all are and they project similarly. I know there is no pot of gold at the end of this conversation but it's just funny how your opinion completely flips when Quintana/Richards become old pal JA Happ. You go from "we have very good depth... I'm not concerned about depth" to "you can't complain about too much depth!" Cognitive dissonance as big as a tuba.
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hmm
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I did set the draft order for the NPD. I f***ed it up at first and had to manually edit some picks but I am pretty sure it's right now. I think we will try to use Spanky's online draft room thing, assuming it works. Does it auto email when you are up? The date is March 1st right now but that could change.
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The lottery was completed. So the order is set, it just hasn’t been inputted.
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So Chavez Young and Winckowski are the biggest names exposed?
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Seems fair enough. Alcantara side is a bit safer because he is not a prospect but Rodriguez has the highest upside in the deal. Baz and Perdomo are a wash. Adams and Houck are irrelevant IMO but someone's personal preferences might disagree. I'd probably still take the GrayRod side. I also like Perdomo.
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rotnight
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better pure hitter, typically better in HR/RBI/R. TT more of a SB pony. In a 5x5 you might take TT.
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lol Bryant, Darvish, Kimbrel, something else For Anthony Kay, Reese McGuire, Santiago Espinal, Adam Kloffenstein, and Dasan Brown
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First side easy if I’m reading that right. 1-2 is Austin Martin or Tork? Rodriguez is a stud, Houck and Hankins are relievers
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Is Kris Bryant still a star? That's not obvious. He was a star for his first three years. The he was just above average in 2018. A borderline star in 2019 (but still worse than his first three years). Awful in 2020. His exit velocity has trended down his entire career. His xwOBA in 2019 was the same as in 2018 so the WAR totals might be misleading - possible his solid 2019 was a bit lucky. He looks like maybe a 3 WAR player to me, and at $21M or whatever there just isn't much surplus value unless you throw his 2020 entirely out the window and expect a bounce back to 2019 which is just plain optimistic. If the Cubs can get a fringe top 100 prospect it's a no-brainer considering Bryant's salary and one year of control and Jed Hoyer would be doing cartwheels, I think.
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Fair enough. My take is that unless Bryant doesn't cost much of anything in terms of prospect capital he should be way down the preference list. Moving Hiraldo + for him just seems like a sort of desperate move, something a team like the Diamondbacks would do before finishing .500 again.
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Don’t get tunnel vision. Two years is a looooong time in baseball. They could just sign Justin Turner. They could trade Hiraldo (or anyone else they deem expendable) for someone who has more objective trade value and maybe more team control than Bryant
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too much for me. i wouldn't deal a top 10 prospect for him. i don't think there is a Miguel Hiraldo sized gap between Bryant's salary and projected production, and there are a good number of solid free agent infielders right now
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It's not at conspiracy theory level. 1. we know PED use was rampant in the league historically 2. we know players in MLB and MiLB get suspended all the time, even now with steady testing (this proves broad use/access on at least some level) 3. we know there are ways to use PEDs and significantly reduce the chance of getting caught (if there was not then no MLB players would ever get popped because they wouldn't even try). PED use and testing is like hackers vs. antivirus software - one side is always behind the curve and responsive by definition. 4. we know that there are massive economic incentives to cheat. essentially, the amount of money on the line makes it inevitable. I don't know if I would go so far as to say that the "vast majority" of the league is using but I wouldn't be shocked if it were true, depending on the definition of PED. I think it's a significant percentage either way.
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Kind of a weird deal. Am I wrong to see this as Spanky kind of targeting Canario?
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first day of camp "ah s***, this guy's black?"
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General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
Laika replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
They already made some responsibly aggressive dips into the farm in 2020. Kendall Williams and Griffin Conine were sent out. Those aren't blockbuster deals but they are also not the kind of trades a pearl clutching GM makes. Both players undoubtedly have actual upside. -
General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
Laika replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
False equivalency. A team that consistently makes the playoffs probably has a better chance of winning one world series than a team that goes all-in cyclically. This is BECAUSE the playoffs are super random. You can argue about specific types of team construction, however. Maybe a team like Oakland that can make the playoffs frequently without typically having Ace level pitching would not have as good of a shot at winning a world series, but there's no indication that Shapiro is afraid of Aces. I mean Cleveland is an Ace factory. -
Already government funded to a large portion of what the target group would be for the pharma companies (poor people): https://www.ontario.ca/page/check-medication-coverage/
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Mlbtr has him on their list on non tender candidates. That doesn’t mean they expect it to happen but with COVID budgets who knows
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It's not a comparison. It's an illustration of why your general point is wrong. Big market clubs can and do trade elite players, and sometimes they do it for weird reasons and the returns are underwhelming. I never said they'd dump his salary. Maybe one of the pieces is a major league ready B prospect they can sell to the fans as a possible core piece, and they dump Kimbrel in the process. Look, I think you need to develop a broader BJMB personality than "guy who disagrees with Laika". I love knowing that I am in your head 24/7 but come on, be your own man.
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The Red Sox just traded away Mookie Betts, lol. Cubs probably aren't trading Darvish but it has more to do with their lack of rotation depth than anything else. It's widely expected that they will try to move veterans and shed payroll as they retool.
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Darvish and Kimbrel for some C prospects edit - I thought Kimbrel was a bigger sandbag but he only has one year left on his deal. Maybe it'll take a B prospect because Yu should be worth more than his deal.
