Tomoyuki Sugano, Starting Pitcher
Though there are a fair number of similarities between right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who just posted from the Yomiuri Giants in Japan, and Tanaka — they had near-identical NPB stats, and Sugano is a slider-first guy with a good split-finger — there are two key differences. The first is that Sugano hasn’t played in America with the ball the way it is now. That means there’s more variance to his outcomes, which is both good and bad — he could be better than Tanaka; he could be worse. That variance might make him more attractive to a team willing to roll the dice that they get a No. 2 starter at a No. 4 price.
The other is that the posting fee is not counted towards the luxury tax, which means that teams close to the luxury tax are incentivized to go get a player like this. That would normally mean that Sugano would be headed for a team like the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, or Red Sox. Here’s the thing, though: The only team within $30 million of the luxury tax is the Dodgers, who have the big leagues’ second-best starting rotation by projections, and boast Rookie of the Year candidate Tony Gonsolin as a sixth starter right now. And they’re so close that if Sugano ends up costing what the crowd has projected on Jon Becker’s aggregations, they wouldn’t have much wiggle room to sign a third baseman afterward.
So maybe we can focus on teams that would be interested in potentially adding a No. 2 starter at a below-average cost. That sounds like Toronto and San Diego here. Are there aspects of those cities that might matter? The team? Or will it just be who is willing to spend the most money? This will be fascinating to follow, but it seems as if there are probably four finalists right now.
Finalists: Padres, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers
Winner: Blue Jays sign Tomoyuki Sugano to a five-year, $50 million contract, plus a $9.4 million posting fee