Laika

His power is insane. Watch the HR at the start of this video. It's like a Vlad laser.

Oh he definitely needs to make improvements. But maybe they can be incremental improvements like most prospects make and not wholesale profile changes. Like if he is hitting 48% flyballs instead of 51% flyballs, and improving his swing decisions on sliders just a bit, maybe that's enough.

Gets dominated by breaking balls. There are some full PA videos from 2022 on youtube. Lots of whiffs on benders, even from LHP.

Let's flip the search around. AA and 20 years or younger, but sort by wRC+ ascending. Again, since 2010. First thing I notice - none of the players who were below average by wRC+ had an ISO anywhere close to Orelvis'. Anthony Rizzo had a .217 ISO and a 118 wRC+ in 2010 but nobody else below Rizzo even had a .180 wRC+. So Orelvis' power is incomparable to this pool of young prospects who struggled in AA. Most of the names who had below average wRC+ on this list ended up as solid MLB players or are still too young to write off. But most of them are very differently kinds of players... slappy infielders. Guys like Nick Castellanos, Jonathan Schoop, and Jose Ramirez! are there. Since 2010 there have been 71 players aged 20 or under get 250+ PA in AA in a single season. Orelvis' ranks: BB% 34th K% 67th AVG 71st BABIP 71st wRC+ 55th ISO 10th FB% 3rd LD% 58th It's just so bizarre to see a BABIP that low from a player who can hit the ball so hard. The flyballs are to blame for some of it but I just think a good chunk was bad luck and he could've hit .230 or .240 with no change in skill and just some better ball luck. The one strictly negative example I see is Hudson Potts, who at 24 is probably not going to figure it out. He was similar to Orelvis in a lot of ways, back in 2019. Again, the game power is not really comparable though (Orelvis was near .300 ISOs in prior seasons, Potts was just over .200 in his best MiLB years).

Sano also had zero defensive value most years (DH quality) and was a horrible baserunner. If Martinez can play an average third base and run the bases competently he doesn't even need to hit as much.

That turns the K rate filter from a positive to a negative, which wasn't where my head was. I was kind of thinking "jeez, to be 20 in AA and not strikeout 30% of the time is actually sort of decent in this year of our lord 2022 when the MLB average K rate is like 24%" But, interestingly enough it barely matters. If we just remove the K% filter entirely the only player that gets added to the sample is Joey Gallo, who hit .232/.334/.524 in 2014 with a 39.5% K rate and 12.4% walk rate. I've seen Gallo as a comp for Orelvis before. Like, a less extreme version of Gallo. Gallo hit as poorly as Orelvis did this year, in Joey's age 21 season in AAA

Like, people look at Martinez' 2022 slashline and think "man, this guy can't hit" I don't think it's necessarily that bad. The flyballs might be a bigger issue than the strikeouts. And a minor change in swing plane to bring that launch angle down just a tiiiiiiiny bit might be easier than fixing a literal hole and the swing, and it might be enough to turn a .203/.286/.446 hitter in AA into one who hits say .253/.336/.500

It's just a model. There are always weird players on the ZiPS top 100 rankings. The factors that it would love on Orelvis: - 20 year old in AA - shortstop - .242 ISO is amazing - 8.1% walk rate is not bad - 28.5% strikeout rate is bad but not horrendous the slashline (AVG/OBP... and wRC+) might not even be an input maybe the model has flaws. probably it does. but also... maybe everyone has overcorrected on Orelvis. It may be instructive to find historical comparisons who were: in AA at 20 or younger, had walk rates over 7% and K rates under 30%, had 250+ PA, and an ISO over .200. Here is everybody since 2010: 1 2013 Miguel Sanó MIN AA 20 276 13.0% 29.3% 0.44 .236 .344 .571 .915 .335 4.8 .265 -0.1 47 14.8 .397 145 3 2022 Francisco Álvarez NYM AA 20 296 12.2% 24.0% 0.51 .277 .368 .553 .922 .277 1.3 .310 -0.5 54 17.1 .394 146 4 2017 Rafael Devers BOS AA 20 320 9.7% 17.2% 0.56 .300 .369 .575 .944 .275 3.7 .316 -1.2 58 20.4 .408 155 5 2018 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR AA 19 266 7.9% 10.2% 0.78 .402 .449 .671 1.120 .269 3.6 .402 -0.7 64 32.7 .481 203 6 2012 Oscar Taveras STL AA 20 531 7.9% 10.5% 0.75 .321 .380 .572 .953 .252 6.3 .323 1.3 99 36.6 .411 159 7 2017 Kyle Tucker HOU AA 20 318 6.9% 20.1% 0.34 .265 .325 .512 .837 .247 4.5 .286 -0.2 47 10.6 .368 129 8 2022 Jhonkensy Noel CLE AA 20 278 10.8% 22.7% 0.48 .242 .338 .488 .826 .246 5.3 .271 0.0 43 8.1 .360 123 9 2013 Domingo Santana HOU AA 20 476 9.7% 29.2% 0.33 .252 .345 .498 .842 .245 5.4 .316 0.3 74 20.2 .372 137 10 2022 Orelvis Martinez TOR AA 20 492 8.1% 28.5% 0.29 .203 .286 .446 .732 .242 3.1 .217 -0.7 60 -2.2 .319 96 11 2019 Dylan Carlson STL AA 20 483 10.8% 20.3% 0.53 .281 .364 .518 .882 .237 7.1 .315 0.5 81 24.3 .387 142 12 2022 Ezequiel Tovar COL AA 20 295 8.5% 21.7% 0.39 .318 .386 .545 .932 .227 6.8 .378 1.5 57 19.6 .405 153 13 2021 Riley Greene DET AA 20 373 11.0% 27.3% 0.40 .298 .381 .525 .905 .227 7.4 .386 1.7 68 21.1 .391 145 15 2018 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP AA 19 394 8.4% 27.7% 0.30 .286 .355 .507 .862 .221 7.7 .370 1.0 64 16.0 .379 133 16 2016 Cody Bellinger LAD AA 20 465 12.7% 20.2% 0.63 .263 .359 .484 .843 .221 3.9 .287 0.8 73 21.4 .375 142 17 2014 Dilson Herrera NYM AA 20 278 10.4% 18.7% 0.56 .340 .406 .560 .967 .220 6.5 .389 0.0 54 21.4 .424 166 18 2011 Mike Trout LAA AA 19 412 10.9% 18.4% 0.59 .326 .414 .544 .958 .218 8.7 .390 1.8 82 29.5 .421 156 19 2010 Anthony Rizzo BOS AA 20 467 9.6% 21.4% 0.45 .263 .334 .481 .815 .217 4.0 .297 0.9 67 10.4 .358 118 20 2012 Jon Singleton HOU AA 20 555 15.9% 23.6% 0.67 .284 .396 .497 .893 .213 5.2 .350 0.2 97 31.6 .396 148 21 2022 Jordan Walker STL AA 20 536 10.8% 21.6% 0.50 .306 .388 .510 .898 .204 6.7 .365 0.9 98 21.5 .396 128 I mean... you can see why the model likes him of course his wRC+ is the worst on this list and his K rate is one of the worst

yeah but for PL but they went partial subscription. they only show you top 10 and blurbs for top 5 i stopped looking at BP a few years ago. not sure if it's any good anymore

wild most of the names on the entire list make sense but Orelvis in that spot sticks out like crazy.

You find out a couple years later. Like, we KNOW at this point that the Dodgers were at the front of the field in two recent pitching developments that were so obvious and important that other teams immediately started copying them: 1. the high fastball, increased usage for whiffs 2. the "sweeper" slider, new in the last couple years first you see players succeeding and data trickles in and then eventually you see articles from people like Eno who know what questions to ask we have yet to see Toronto get accolades for any specific developmental things.

I'm sure they have a team, yeah. But is that team just helping them keep up? Are they just doing the things that the Astros and Dodgers were doing 3 years ago? Who knows. You'd like to see them be on the cutting edge of stuff, though. You wanna be top 5 not middle of the pack.

The things you want to see are stories about cutting edge pitch design, or modern hitter training like weighted bat programs to increase bat speed, or player education and players buying in to things like optimizing batted ball profiles and pull rates. So you want the team to hire cool nerds, basically. Drive Line bros and math graduates who lift weights and can talk to athletes.

Similar in points and hits Hathaway has 5 inches on Acciari though and better career possession metrics Corsi Fenwick on ice goals for vs goals against per 60 minutes Acciari 44.8 46.4 1.3/3.8 Hathaway 47.2 48.0 2.1/2.5 Feel like Hathaway is less of a liability while on the ice It's not like Acciari has been on bad teams either. He was a B for four years and FLA was good his three years there. But both of them are definitely just veteran 4th line sluts who can throw it around

Bringing in old vets is always cool but you wonder what type of impact these guys actually have. Like, Barry Bonds was a bad hitting coach.

You selling anybody?

Wow I drafted a few good prospects

do I have any good prospects other than Nemec? please advise, lol

I meant a show like 90 Day Fiance, where everybody is basically made fun of.

Man, it's not appealing to any normal person here either lmao. But yeah I am surprised your mail order liabilities aren't into it. They could go from dumpster diving in Bratislava to selling their farts online in a month. That's levelling up quickly.

how much does 90 day fiance pay

It's the finesse part of it. Switch hitting doesn't necessitate using much finesse from either side of the plate. Even if you are a plus hitter from both sides who can, say, serve specific pitches into the opposite field at will... the finesse required pales in comparison to the specialization and feel needed to consistently execute offspeed pitches or hit your spots. I think the only way to make it work and train each arm adequately would be to basically double your throwing time. Like if a normal P throws 7 hours per week, you need to throw 7 hours per week on each arm. It would be funny to sign your switch pitching kid up for two travel ball teams and make him a RHP on one and a LHP on the other.

I don't even think Venditte threw 88

Step 1 is a full healthy season as a reliever Step 2 would be pushing the innings (year 2) Step 3 you hope he can be a Drew Rasmussen type, five inning SP. If all goes well he's under team control for two years as that type of SP. His age 28 and 29 seasons.

Yeah Toronto likely doesn't care about him being a bit late but they WILL use it as a reason to make him betray Mexico