Laika

He IS also, obviously, a highly variable prospect at this point so he could also just show up next year with a 26% k rate and a better batted ball profiles at the next minor league level It's possible. Not likely but it's possible. Could also be the kind of guy to like, suck in AA then repeat the level and be very good. At some point

You are thinking about it the wrong way You can't go looking for the exceptional comps. You need to just look at all kids at that level of the minors who have struck out 30% of the time. And even if you want to look at the exceptional comps, those guys would have had great batter ball profiles and Nimmala's is probably horrible.

Adam Jones

There was no TJS option so I am abstaining... Probably SP4 is the highest I can go right now. Sample too small, novelty can be a big factor, fastball velo remains fringe.

I have it on good authority that Rob Manfred already had a sit down with the Orioles about this A new committee for DEI was formed in the Baltimore organization and Adam Jones Skype'd into the first meeting That is why they drafted Enrique Bradfield 17th overall last year Of course they followed that up with 2024 first round pick Vance Honeycutt, who comes from old plantation money in N Carolina. There has been some controversy about that selection.

He's interesting The stuff+ over the last month is actually pretty middling, like 94 stuff+ But the splitter effectively makes him a wide arsenal pitcher who is 50% FB, 25% splitter, 15% slider 10% curveball or something like that It's also not super common for a SP to throw a splitter that much Since July 28th here are the SP who have thrown a splitter 20%+ of the time: Gausman 35% Imanaga 32% Eovaldi 32% Francis 26% Houck 22% Mitchell Parker 21% (Bryce Miller 15% is next). Six guys. Comp to sliders, you get 19 guys and then a bunch more who are barely below 20% AND we kind of know that stuff+ sucks with changeups and splitters. e.g. it has Gausman and Imanaga's splitters as 90 and 80 pitches this year. Both of those are thrown a lot and have positive run values, so that just doesn't make sense. So if you make some assumptions: - more pitches is better - the splitter is a weapon despite what stuff+ says - he has good command Then I think he could be pretty damn good as a wide arsenal guy with good command and enough tricks up his sleeve. Some guys in that bucket are: - Zach Eflin (he might have 5+ pitches though) - Erick Fedde (cutter, sinker, slider, change) - Michael King (four seamer, sinker, slider, change) - Seth Lugo (four seamer, sinker, slider, curveball, plus three other show-me pitches) - This late career version of Nathan Eovaldi ^ all of the above are good 2024 SP with qualified innings but below average overall stuff+ I guess at the end of the day it could just be the classic baseball developmental touched-by-god leap of "man finds changeup" The thing we don't really know yet is if he actually has good command. If it comes and goes, he won't be as good as the above. And if the splitter isn't as good as it has seemed recently and hitters catch onto it, then he slides down the spectrum.

Before or after the TJS?

Neither of them walk enough. Subject to the BABIP gods forever. Chourio might not even be the best Chourio...

Jackson C is actually a good example of why people should NOT freak out about Jackson H Jackson C through May 31 61 wRC+ 27% K rate Holliday a bit worse than that and his 35% K rate is IMO much more concerning, but still. close. Jackson Merrill is the best Jackson though

It is brutal If you look for home-grown guys who have provided like, 100+ GS and solid WAR to the Blue Jays, there is nobody other than those two. And Chris Carpenter but he was on the edge of 2000. You can sort of give them points for Estrada because he was a swing-man when they traded for him. You can sort of give them points for Happ since he turned into a better P in Toronto. But so many guys who flashed promise just crumbled after 1-2 decent years. Hutchison, Sanchez, Cecil, Litsch, Henderson Alvarez, Marcum (3 years; traded), Romero (3 years), Chacin, McGowan, Manoah... And they traded away some guys who ended up doing it for other teams. Disco and Musgrove off the top of my head. I am tempted to say "that's just pitching" but I would guess that at least half of the league has done a bit better

Even without the velo drop the yank is fine. No reason to ride the guy like a mule at this point in the season. He threw like 17-27 extra pitches last time so save him those this time.

We are shitposting the Orioles because it's funny. If you want to remove the humour from the situation, the facts are something like this: - You are very right about Nimmala and Bonnilla. We can basically forget about Bonilla at this point and Nimmala's K rate makes his chances of making it or being great rather puny. Sometimes when someone is "very correct" people on the internet instead of saying "you are correct, but here is a small counterpoint" just go straight to the small counterpoint. There are some small counterpoints about Nimmala of course, age and power and position all help his case a bit and there are some precedents. - People in baseball are underreacting to Jackson Holliday's MLB struggles. Too many are just saying "well, he's young he will figure it out". Mike Trout at 19 was not great but he was better than this and his K rate was normal. Jackson Holliday's MLB struggles take him down the ladder from "sure thing prospect" to "50% chance to be Jarred Kelenic" It is what it is Try to be less autistic and it will make more sense

It's so true 94 mph meatball from Ryan Burr - homer 85 mph hanging slider from Yerry Rodriguez - long homer 90 mph s***** cutter from Bassitt - homer three of his five dingers are off the Jays lmao

Blaun Snoto it is

The case for signing Snell is that the Jays do not have enough pitching depth with upside. There are almost zero such SP prospects in the system who could even possibly contribute in the next couple of years, other than Yesavage. Used to have Tiedemann but realistically he has no chance of being a front line SP anymore. Perhaps more likely to be a 2 WAR RP than a 2 WAR SP! Bloss, Macko are backend SP prospects. Honestly, you are happy if they are 1 WAR SP5 types. Expect SP6 results. Y Rod and Francis aren't much more promising. SP4 production would be amazing. Expect SP5/SP6. Any other SP prospect with upside in the system aside from the hopeless Tiedemann and this Yesavage guy are yearssssssssssss away. On the other side of the ball the Jays may not have a ton of high upside bats either but they do have a bunch of depth from guys who could more realistically be 2 win players. Every guy we have seen this year could do that. Some could be a bit better. Sort of a sneaky underrated group of young bats tbh. If they do not sign a guy like Snell the rotation probably has no viable playoff SP1 or even SP2. None of us would be very excited about rolling with the 2024 version of any of Gausman, Berrios, or Bassitt in game one of a playoff series.

You f***ing idiot. "The Orioles are good" is not a contrarian take. The baseball media conglomerate has been fluffing their nuts non-stop for two years.

Yeah I am not super interested in tiers 2 and 3 I mean I won't be MAD if they sign Burnes or Snell but the money might be weird Plan A - balls out for Soto Pivot - as many tier 4 guys as possible

They might be able to squeeze THREE tier 4 guys into the budget. $15M, $15, $20M

Not intentionally I guess if you rotate it and squint it sort of looks like the eye and mouth crack are the CN Tower

Tier 1 = Soto Tier 2 = Burnes, Bregman Tier 3 = Fried, Snell, Chapman, Adames Tier 4 = Kim, Alonso, Bellinger, Flaherty, Santander, Bieber, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Teoscar, Walker, O'Neill (and various others) You have $50M to spend after spending a bit on the bullpen and fringes of the roster (backup C). How are you spending it?

Yeah I think they could bring in two of them but one of them is the primary DH. Santander, Profar, O'Neill, and Teoscar are all DH candidates at this point in their careers anyway. I think they all have negative defensive numbers this year in the OF corners but none of them are so bad that you can't put them out there for 50 games if necessary.

Trending to be one of the bigger busts in MLB history. I know he's a baby and it's early but projections are already tanking a bit and this is some Jarred Kelenic s***.

But the chance that he provides say 1.5 WAR is much higher than getting that from, say, Addison Barger I am just not sure the roster needs INSURANCE in that soft spot. The roster needs IMPACT in that hole. There is already enough insurance due to the young-ish position player depth. I think. Like, one of Barger, Schneider, Loperfido, Horwitz, Clase, or even Wagner (or some platoon combo of two of them) is almost certain to be a 1.5 WAR dude In theory the Jays are in a MUCH better position this offseason. Last offseason they probably felt like they had to make a few 1.5 WAR projection FA signings because their MiLB depth did not look this good. Now, almost every position on the roster is covered by the boring but decent collection of twenty-something Buffalo guys and trade acquisitions.

So Jackson Holliday still sucks First 10 games in April: negative 52 wRC+ (2 hits in 10 games) with 50% K rate demoted called back up July 31 to August 7th: 275 wRC+ with four homers but 26% K rate (7 games) August 8 to present: 25 wRC+ with 31.4% K rate

Kepler projects for a 106 to 110 wRC+ and something like 1.5 to 2.5 WAR depending on playing time and the projection system you look at Scaled to 450 PA his WAR over the last FIVE years is also essentially in that range ^ (2023 being the only exception where was slightly above that) He's a s*** signing for $10M and it would be a lot like KK/IKF/Turner this last offseason where money is wasted on a crusty veteran But if he is signing for less than that, then he's a fine piece to have. I am not sure he's even an upgrade on both of Loperfido/Barger -- same xwOBA as Barger this year while Loperfido probably brings more speed/defense to the table -- but if they trade some young players this offseason maybe Kepler fits. His age is concerning and the drop off in barrels and hard hit balls is also concerning, but his maxEV is still there and his defense still looks decent. I dunno. Personally, I would just give the roster spot to Loperfido/Barger and spend money elsewhere.