Laika

People won't like this but maybe Gimenez should leadoff. Bo 2nd, Vlad 3rd, George 4th, Potatoes 5th. Speed at the top for Bo and Vlad to bring in with their single fetish. Taters 5th is more of a natural spot for him. Big swings if a couple of guys get on in front of him.

Something about what he did and how he did it that just gives the projection systems a boner. Big sample size, upper levels, results and good K and BB rates in MiLB, then backed it up for the most part in a small MLB sample. Spencer Horwitz did similar things and projected well on the strength of it. To be fair to some of these guys (Wagner, Roden, Clement) we are talking about 60-70 cold April plate appearances. It's completely possible they get more rope and it clicks and they end up having solid years.

haha it's more like this - he still projects will with the bat and you can platoon him with Clement at 3B, who isn't exactly taking grab of the job

167 qualified hitters Bo is 18th in swing rate and 39th in contact rate we are not necessarily talking about an elite contact dude. we are talking about a guy who just swings A LOT and is merely "very good" at making contact. there is an argument that he should swing less so he can get better pitches to hit. a very good argument, probably. offensively, he is basically Lourdes Gurriel and I think we can kind of close the book on him becoming a more complete hitter, unless something changes with his approach very soon.

I expected Roden to be a decent hitter but bring nothing else to the table. Funny how he is the exact opposite so far. He has been a better fielder, thrower, runner than expected but he has been a putrid hitter in every way other than the ability to make contact. 100% they should be keeping Lukes around once Varsho is back since he is better suited for a 4th OF role anyway. Wagner may survive since he covers 3B/1B

3-0 so we just need like 15 singles now no problem

Have to love hard lineouts

Unrealistic to expect Chris Bassitt to win the Cy Young? Nah

Nobody wins the trade

Bassitt would have to suck a lot for the rest of the year to end up at 2 WAR. He already projects for like 3.5

30% to 40% the team is not inspiring at all but being the last wild card team isn't exactly a huge task given the AL competition

50% win today, playoffs lose today, might as well sell

2022 being the year they rostered Tapia and traded for Whit Merrifield 2023 they continue the trend with KK and Clement also sneaks onto the roster 2024 we see Clement and Justin Turner, IKF signed, Wagner acquired, and we also see the development philosophy mirror the acquisitions as Horwitz and Leo Jimenez trickle up 2025 and of course this year Gimenez and Roden and Straw continue the trend Yes they also signed Santander and guys like Belt, traded for Varsho in here. But the balance of things seems to really favour these slap hitters. We also have the developmental stories trending that way - Bo's loss of HR power, Kirk's loss of HR power, Schneider not holding success as a guy with effective power, Springer doing weird s*** and slapping balls around, Vlad intermittently forgetting he has power, Barger being told to make contact. Jansen leaving in favour of Kirk (profile preference). Teoscar being dumped (profile preference). Chapman leaving in FA. Diseased. I think they must see some sort of market inefficiency with some of these profiles. Guys with quit tools who make contact and hit line drives. Traditionally harder to project. Easy to acquire.

you know what the Jays are going to do soon don't you they will have a 20 run game with 5 homers then go right back to hitting no barrels for a month

cannot fall below .500 season basically over if that happens

Yeah how about this: No Barrels: Lukes, Barger, Schneider Only One Barrel: Kirk, Roden, Clement, Wagner, Straw Only Two Barrels: Heineman Only Three Barrels: Gimenez, Santander Basically the team has 2.5 guys hitting any barrels at all. Vlad, the resurgent George (for however long that lasts) and then Bo with a league average rate. Sadness Some of these guys have played 20+ games and they've hit a ball properly like, once or twice?

On the contrary, the savant leaderboard of the team level stats only points to very marginal bad luck when looking at xwOBA and xwOBACON I guess that's what a worst in the league barrel rate will do. I f***ing hate this team

It should be somewhat obvious from the absurdity of the results but the Jays are getting hella unlucky on offense so far this year per xwOBA and xStats. G PA wOBA xwOBA wOBA - xwOBA wRC+ WAR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 24 106 0.339 0.422 -0.083 126 0.5 George Springer 22 78 0.411 0.392 0.019 177 0.7 Bo Bichette 24 112 0.315 0.389 -0.074 109 0.4 Tyler Heineman 8 27 0.542 0.344 0.198 272 0.8 Nathan Lukes 15 37 0.29 0.342 -0.052 91 0.1 Andrés Giménez 24 102 0.275 0.331 -0.056 80 0.2 Myles Straw 18 42 0.347 0.308 0.039 131 0.5 Will Wagner 17 59 0.254 0.28 -0.026 65 -0.2 Anthony Santander 23 102 0.257 0.269 -0.012 67 -0.3 Alejandro Kirk 18 72 0.252 0.267 -0.015 64 0.1 Davis Schneider 10 21 0.243 0.266 -0.023 57 0 Ernie Clement 23 61 0.238 0.259 -0.021 53 0.2 Alan Roden 22 71 0.276 0.226 0.05 81 0.2 Addison Barger 6 16 0.123 0.198 -0.075 -29 0 Vlad, Bo, and Gimenez are core players doing good or great by xwOBA and not getting the results Hieneman and Straw are getting lucky but they are bench pieces Springer is barely getting lucky and deserves his results The rest of the gang are problematic and have bad expected stats but most other than Roden appear to also not be getting the bounces It is almost funny. Lots of belly-aching about the top 5 not performing. Well, only Santander is really lost. Generally speaking the other 4 are doing what you want them to do.

Not worried about Vlad at all this year. xStats don't lie.

Revolting lineup tbh

At least Jerj Springer is 28 years old again Dead red statcast page

let's get a beer

The xSLG for Vlad and Bo matters but those are missing doubles, almost entirely. I can't recall either of them hitting any or many would-be homers that died on the track. Both are just slapping the RF alley and getting defended. There is a chance Santander is just a bum from now on. Ring the alarm bells, fire Ross.

I just don't know where the Jays are going to find any pop. I guess Varsho coming back soon will help. I guess Barger could start getting to his power a bit more often if he gets some playing time. But that's about it internally. Bo is showing no signs of wanting or having the ability to hit for pull power anymore. Bo and Santander will start hitting more but a pair of 25 HR hitters is ho-hum, every team has that. Orelvis, Loperfido, Schneider, McAdoo... everyone in AAA and AA sucks from what I can see. Outlook, weak.

win the AL East? lol