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MLB's most unheralded player Edwin Encarnacion hits like an MVP but garners a fraction of the hype Edwin EncarnacionAbelimages/Getty ImagesEdwin Encarnacion ranks third in the major leagues with 78 homers over the last two seasons. If you think about the five most dangerous hitters in baseball (as ranked by wOBA) over the past two years, you'll certainly come up with the top two (Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout) pretty easily. The No. 3 (Joey Votto) and No. 4 (Andrew McCutchen) bats probably wouldn't be too difficult to discern either. But which player would round out the top five: Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Giancarlo Stanton? That trio and many others are valid guesses, but none of them make it into the top five, and if not for the big picture at the top of this article giving it away, you might have been cycling through names in your mind for hours before coming up with Edwin Encarnacion. Often thought of as not even being the best hitter on his own team, the truth is that the soon-to-be 31-year-old Toronto slugger is one of baseball's elite bats and still is almost certainly the sport's most underappreciated power source. Nomadic beginnings If fans haven't properly respected Encarnacion, they're not alone, because the sport itself hasn't always either. For years, he had been a quiet favorite of some stats-oriented observers, who looked past lousy third base defense and poor batting average (he failed to top .251 in four of his first six seasons) in favor of impressive on-base and power skills. In parts of five seasons with the Cincinnati Reds, Encarnacion hit a solid .262/.345/.449, all before the age of 27, but occasionally clashed with manager Jerry Narron and found himself fighting for playing time with the likes of Ryan Freel and Rich Aurilia. Big Hitters MLB's wOBA leaders over the last two seasons. PLAYER wOBA Miguel Cabrera .435 Mike Trout .416 Joey Votto .415 Andrew McCutchen .398 Edwin Encarnacion .392 Robinson Cano .389 Chris Davis .389 Carlos Gonzalez .389 Giancarlo Stanton .387 Paul Goldschmidt .385 In 2009, Encarnacion was shipped off to the Toronto Blue Jays in the Scott Rolen deal, but even then it wasn't smooth sailing. He was outrighted off the 40-man roster in 2010, spent time in the minors and was waived again following the season, briefly landing in the Oakland organization before the A's let him go as well. Just three years ago, any team could have had Encarnacion for nothing at all, and that's shocking when you look at what he has done. Since 2010, he has more home runs than David Ortiz and only one fewer than Stanton and Cano. His wOBA over that span is identical to Shin-Soo Choo's, who just collected a budget-busting contract from Texas, and his wRC+ is exactly the same as that of respected stars Joe Mauer and Carlos Beltran. Even when judging Encarnacion by wins above replacement, which penalizes him for that unimpressive defense, he has been worth roughly as much as Matt Kemp in that span. That's pretty strong company to be mentioned in, and it hardly stops there. Over the second half of last season, Encarnacion was an almost identical offensive performer to Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who ended up as the National League's second-place finisher in the MVP ballot. Here's a look at how they compared over that span: Goldschmidt: .288/.408/.544 16.4 walk rate, .399 wOBA, 152 wRC+ Encarnacion: .286/.401/.538 16.2 walk rate, .398 wOBA, 152 wRC+ If one thing separated them, it was that Goldschimidt struck out 20.7 percent of the time in the second half, which isn't out of the ordinary; the sport as a whole struck out 19.9 percent of the time in 2013. But Encarnacion whiffed a mere 6.7 percent of the time in the second half and 10 percent overall, making him the rare power hitter who doesn't pile up absurd strikeout numbers, and that puts him in some other rarified company. Contact hitter Since the turn of the century, just five other players have done what Encarnacion accomplished in 2013, which is to hit at least 36 homers while striking out fewer than 62 times. Two of those players -- Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols -- rank among the best who have ever played, and two others -- Todd Helton and Gary Sheffield -- will have strong Hall of Fame cases to make when they become eligible. Only six qualified hitters struck out at a lower clip than Encarnacion did last year, and they were mostly Marco Scutaro types, not power hitters, with none coming within 100 points of Encarnacion's .534 slugging percentage. If you take that further, looking only at power hitters who know how to take a walk without piling up strikeouts, you'll find Encarnacion's name nearly alone at the top of the peak. Over the past two years, 28 hitters displayed an ISO of at least .200, and just five from that group walked at least 13 percent of the time; of those five, only Encarnacion and Votto walked more than they struck out. When you're piling up free passes, not whiffing and showing immense power, you're usually doing something right. Of course, simply not striking out doesn't instantly correlate with success -- strikeouts aren't often much worse than other outs -- but putting the bat on the ball more often does put Encarnacion in position to take advantage of his natural skills. Again looking at 2012-13, Encarnacion has the third-highest fly ball rate in the game, and the 14th-highest rate of home runs per fly ball. The equation there is simple: more contact leads to more fly balls leads to more homers. That's easier said than done, and in Encarnacion's case the key came through coaching. Prior to 2012, he was advised to shorten his swing by keeping both hands on the bat, rather than letting his top hand come off in his follow-through, and to stop attempting to pull every ball to left field. It worked, and quickly: Of Encarnacion's 24 career homers to center and right field, 11 have come in the past two seasons. Playing for a team outside of the media spotlight and often overshadowed by teammate Jose Bautista, Encarnacion generally gets left out of the conversation about baseball's best. He finally made his first All-Star team in 2013, but that's just a small step toward the recognition his performance deserves considering how great his past two seasons have been. When he's an MVP candidate in 2014 (assuming he will have no ill effects following minor wrist surgery in September), don't say you didn't see it coming. After all, the past two awards went to a powerful corner infielder who didn't offer much defensive value, either.

Talked about this yesterday on Xm. They said Toronto should be his number one location. Problem is that KC will be looking for pitching. Still thought Jays could get him.

Not to change the subject, but Scott Boras was just on XM and he said that the Tanaka rate has been set at, (at least), 7 years $140 million, and that several teams have complied. Didn't sound like posturing to me.

Discussion this morning on XM on Tanaka and teams that are in on him. Lengthy talk of the Jays, and Ferrin said that the Jays had someone watching every game he pitched. Said there was a parade of Jays personnel, from the top to the bottom. Said he would not be surprised if the Jays were in on him heavily. Also talked about where Tanaka would choose to go. Said that HE could see no reason that he wouldn't pick to go there. International city, large Japanese population (don't know if this is true or not). Don't know if any of this is true, just passing it along.

Regardless of who was in the trade, I don't think you can assume that the reason Dombrowski didn't trade with AA was because of something that AA did. He didn't trade with 28 other GM's that all need pitching either. Griffin is weak and this article was a perfect example of making something out of thin air.

But perhaps that is not what Detroit wanted? Jays fans on this board think Goins is filler, Nolin had one terrible start in the majors. So that really means the only proven player was Cecil.

So "perhaps" Dombrowski would rather get a worse package than deal with Anthopoulos. Perhaps, the lack of moves is making Griffin's job a little more difficult and he couldn't do better than come up with this garbage, thus hinting at some incompetence on his part. Discussing this very subject right now on XM. Said that Griffin's article wasn't credible. Also that if it was true, shame on the GM that added to this article. Said, that AA has always kept things quiet, and that it is his job to gather information. That might tick off some writers. Thinks a lot of these articles come from the winter meetings where some guy has a few drinks, and mentions some little thing, and a month later these type of articles appear. As far as the Detroit trade goes, said that it was common knowledge that the Jays don't want to trade Stroman or Sanchez, so who else were they going to use in that trade.

I have posted the entire article, Jays are near the bottom. Fixing surprising team weaknesses Identifying under-the-radar problems, possible fixes for potential contenders Updated: December 19, 2013, 12:08 PM ET By Mike Petriello | ESPN Insider 6 3 5 Email Print Matt Garza AP Photo/Colin E. BraleyCould Matt Garza be a potential fix for the Giants' troubled rotation? The offseason is barely half over, so teams still have time to fill the remaining holes on their rosters before spring training starts. Some of those weaknesses are obvious; everyone knows, for example, that the Angels need another starting pitcher and that the Yankees, as currently constructed, might not be able to cobble together four healthy infielders at the same time. However, some teams' flaws are flying a bit more under the radar and, unless fixed, could have an impact on 2014's pennant races. Here's a look at four teams with surprising weaknesses and potential fixes for each. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Team: San Francisco Giants | Weakness: Starting pitching For a team that has long survived -- excelled, really -- on great pitching carrying a merely decent offense, the Giants have started to lean the other way over the past year or two. The problem with last season's 86-loss team wasn't the lineup, which had three star-level performers (Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Buster Posey) and at least two wins above replacement from all eight lineup positions, counting the combination of Angel Pagan and Juan Perez in center. It was the starting rotation, where Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong each fell apart, Matt Cain had his worst year since his rookie campaign and Tim Lincecum continued to look like a shell of his former elite self. Tim Hudson, going on 39 years old and coming off a severely broken ankle, was the Giants' big winter upgrade, although he should still be a considerable step up from Zito. Even so, a rotation led by underappreciated young ace Madison Bumgarner is largely treading water and, after ranking 27th in MLB in WAR last season with 6.4, is projected to reach just 9.6 this year. (By comparison, Detroit led the majors in 2013 at 25.3.) Proposed fix: Vogelsong's comeback story was nice, but he's best served as depth rather than guaranteed a rotation job. A No. 14 overall pick is too much to give up for free agents Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, so adding Northern California native Matt Garza, the most talented pitcher remaining who's not subject to a qualifying offer, makes a lot of sense for a team that needs to improve to compete with the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. The Giants won't, but they should. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Team: Cincinnati Reds | Weakness: Outfield Last season, the Reds had three of the better offensive performers in the National League in Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, along with reasonably productive infielders Todd Frazier and Brandon Phillips, so it's somewhat surprising to see them ahead of just five other offenses in FanGraphs' 2014 WAR projections. That gets less surprising when you see that both left field and center field are projected to be barely above replacement level, with each position ranking worst in the league. The downgrade from Choo to talented-but-risky Billy Hamilton is obvious, yet it's really Ryan Ludwick who's the issue here. Ludwick will turn 36 this year, is coming off a 2013 that was marred by a shoulder injury and poor performance, and has been worth fewer than 2 WAR in three of the past four seasons. Because he's also a negative defender, he shouldn't be counted upon to be an everyday player at this point, especially if the Reds are going to gamble on Hamilton in center. Proposed fix: Choo would be ideal but likely will be priced out of a return to Cincinnati, and the outfield free-agent market behind him, including the overrated Nelson Cruz, is barren. Instead, this is a rarely discussed but smart landing spot for Andre Ethier, whom the Dodgers are likely to deal. Yes, he's overpriced, but the Dodgers can eat enough salary to make him palatable, and as a top-10 hitter against righty pitching over the past three years, Ethier would make for a great complement to the right-handed Ludwick while adding some Hamilton insurance after spending most of 2013 playing a surprisingly not-awful center field. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Team: Colorado Rockies | Weakness: First base It's been a long time since the Rockies needed to fix up first base; the last time they entered a season not expecting Todd Helton to be the primary first baseman was 1997, when the Diamondbacks and Rays had yet to play their first games. With Helton finally riding off into retirement, Colorado went out and signed former Twin Justin Morneau. That would have been fine if this were still 2006, but at age 33, with declining defense and negative value on the bases, Morneau is barely above replacement-level these days. Throw in a total inability to hit lefty pitching -- .298 career OBP, a number he hasn't even managed in a season since 2010 -- and it's easy to see how first base in Colorado could be among the least productive positions in baseball. Proposed fix: Fortunately, the Rockies have an in-house solution for this problem in Michael Cuddyer, who won a batting title in 2013 but isn't likely to repeat the .382 batting average on balls in play that helped make it happen. He's still a reasonably productive hitter, however, and giving him 50 percent or so of the time at first base would not only help minimize Morneau's exposure, but it also would keep one of the worst defensive right fielders of 2013 from doing as much damage in the outfield. So far this month, Colorado has added defensively proficient outfielders Brandon Barnes and Drew Stubbs, giving it both the depth and flexibility to make such a move. The Rockies have some interesting pieces, but they just need to deploy them correctly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Team: Toronto Blue Jays | Weakness: Starting pitching A year ago, Toronto's rotation was newly assembled and fascinating, with NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, Miami ace Josh Johnson and the reliable Mark Buehrle joining Brandon Morrow and J.A. Happ. Beset by injuries and Dickey's inability to repeat his 2012 performance, last season the Jays ended up using 13 starters, including digging up discards like Ramon Ortiz and Chien-Ming Wang. Now, Johnson is gone to San Diego, Dickey is 39, Morrow's health can't be counted on and the Jays suddenly have a rotation that's middle-of-the-pack at best. In a tough American League East and with a still-dangerous lineup, Toronto badly needs a starter it can rely on in order to make the run it was supposed to go on last season. Proposed fix: Because Toronto failed to sign its 2012 first-round pick (No. 10 overall) and finished with the No. 9 overall pick this year, the Blue Jays have two protected first-round picks. That means that signing a player who received a qualifying offer would cost them only their second-round pick (their third in the draft, somewhere around No. 45 overall) and shouldn't cause hesitation on moving on such a player the way it might for other clubs. Santana is a possible fit, but the better choice is Jimenez, who is less homer-prone than Santana while missing more bats, important in an offense-friendly Toronto park. The draft pick is immaterial here, while the boost to what is clearly a win-now Toronto team is essential.

Well like your belief that AA won't admit failure, which is ONLY an opinion. Your explaining anything doesn't make it fact. It is an opinion, just like mine. The OP question asked what our opinion of AA is, that is mine. I can't help it if you don't like it. He took a chance. It is yet to be decided whether it has worked or not. But if it doesn't work, they are no different than they were before the trades. The Jays will be a club with one of the top farm systems, and that will be it. So perhaps since, you don't agree with me, you can save your breath explaining it over and over. I don't agree with you, and we will just have to agree to disagree.

I would consider him above average. As mentioned above, he took over a club that had a decimated farm system, and rebuilt it. He made some terrific trades, Morrow, Lawrie etc. He had some boots, Napoli, but all GM's have those. He has more to deal with than most GM's, in that it is difficult to get FA's to sign here. Each year, he has given the fans more to get excited about. His job is to move this club forward, and even though some might not like how he moved it, there can be no doubt that last off season, was probably the most exciting and hopeful that this club has seen in 20 years. I didn't like the Dickey trade, but he needed a #1 pitcher, and he went and got one, and got him on a good contract. Compared to the prices that average pitchers are getting this off season, the Dickey contract is a deal. The question should be if there had been no devastating injuries last year, would there have finally been playoffs in TO after 20 years. Most experts had them as WS favourites before the season started. If they had done nothing and continued on the rebuilding path, where would the team have been today. They would still have all their prospects, 70% of them never making the majors. According to some studies 3 of 4 pitching prospects fail. So far, none of the traded prospects are looking like a big mistake. Syndergaard, probably will make the majors, D'Arnaud is a question mark with regards to his health, but if the team had made the playoffs, would giving them up be worth it? That is what AA had to weigh. He said all along, that prospects were collateral, and he would use them. Would the team without Reyes, Dickey, Buerhle, Cabrera have any hope at the playoffs this year? As far as Beeston is concerned, there is not a single person on this board that has any idea how much influence on AA, he has been. My personal opinion is not as much as most believe. But I could be just as wrong as anyone on that. And for our position right now, I think this club is going to be much better than most think. If not, AA will be dumping contracts at the deadline, for a lot of good young prospects. According to more than one expert our lower levels are swimming with talent, and when he adds to the farm with the trades, we will be in the same position we were in before , just a year and a half later. He gave the team a chance, and that is all that most fans ask for.

I think they should do everything they can to get an extension. Our OF in the minors is poor, and the FA market isn't looking any better.

There is an excellent article on espn right now about the success of prospects. You don't have to be an inside. It is under Sweet spot. I can't seem to post it.

I never mind posting the entire article, but not sure how much anyone wants. Just let me know.

Chase Headley The tough competition in the NL West should force the Padres to trade Chase Headley. Next year’s free-agent class is top-heavy, and features three of baseball’s best starting pitchers in Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. While seen some big-name players traded a year before free agency, that won't happen with any of these guys because their teams have a shot at the World Series and they all play for big-market clubs that can afford to re-sign them. In fact, don't be surprised if these guys get contract extensions before hitting the market next winter, with Kershaw being the most likely of the three to get a new deal. However, there are five players who will be eligible for free agency next fall who probably should have already been traded since they haven’t been locked up to multiyear deals. Some of these players are on contending teams, but none of which are large markets and really can’t afford to let them walk as a free agent and receive only a draft pick as compensation. Here is the breakdown of the five players I think should be traded by Opening Day if they are not given a contract extension. 1. Chase Headley, 3B | San Diego Padres Headley, 29, had 31 doubles and 31 homers in 2012 and finished in the top five in NL MVP voting. His power numbers were down this year (.400 slugging), but he still plays a position where there is a lot more demand than supply and could fetch a lot in a trade. The Angels, Dodgers, Marlins and Yankees all started the offseason with needs at third base and could have matched up well in a deal for the Padres, though the Angels and Dodgers have patched that hole for at least the next couple of years with David Freese and Juan Uribe, respectively. The Padres think they can be a surprise team in 2014 if some of their young pitching develops, and would rather hold on to Headley with a better chance to win. The problem is the competition in the NL West is fierce and his trade value will be at an all-time low when he becomes a two-month rental in July. 2. Justin Masterson, RHP | Cleveland Indians The Indians are already trying to deal with the loss of Scott Kazmir via free agency to the Athletics and are bracing themselves for the possible departure of Ubaldo Jimenez as well. So you're probably thinking: How can they trade Masterson as well? They probably wouldn’t, but as the A's and Rays and have shown, teams in small markets have to constantly be reloading for the future, and the Indians aren't a legitimate World Series contender anyway. Trading Masterson to the Braves, Blue Jays or Dodgers would allow them to get significant pitching prospects back and being a perennial contender should be more important than taking the risk your ace leaves for just a draft pick. 3. Colby Rasmus, CF | Toronto Blue Jays Rasmus finished with 4.8 WAR in 2013, ahead of such center fielders such as Adam Jones, Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner. Despite missing more than 40 games, he still hit 22 homers and posted a .840 OPS. There are a few teams that could use a player like him, such as the Reds, Cubs and Giants, and the Jays have Anthony Gose ready to play center field in his absence. That would be a downgrade on offense, but Toronto wants to upgrade its rotation and Rasmus is probably the club's best trade piece when you consider their in-house replacement. Toronto can be a contender if it can get an elite pitcher, and Rasmus' value will never be higher than it is right now. 4. Homer Bailey, RHP | Cincinnati Reds This one is a bit tricky, because like Kershaw, Scherzer and Lester, he could be the key for his club making the playoffs. Bailey, 27, is coming off his second straight season with more than 200 innings and an ERA below 3.70. Of course, if he has another season like that the Reds have no shot at re-signing him, and with Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani, they have good starting pitching depth. There are teams who would pay a big price for a pitcher like Bailey, and the Reds could re-sign Bronson Arroyo on a two-year deal and shop Bailey to get a right-handed bat or significant prospect package. 5. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS | Cleveland Indians Unlike Masterson, the Indians will not even consider re-signing Cabrera, as they have top prospect Francisco Lindor ready to take over at shortstop at some point in the next year or so. Although Cabrera had a poor year in 2013, he is still just 28 years old and posted a .778 OPS across 2011-12. The Cardinals came calling before they signed free-agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta, but there are several teams that could use Cabrera. The Athletics could move Jed Lowrie to second for him, and he would also represent an upgrade for teams like the Mets and Pirates. Like Masterson, his trade value is higher now than it will be in July, and if the Indians wait to deal either of them and end up in the race, then they won't be able to get anything more for them than draft-pick compensation.

This is from Jim Bowden, who probably read it here, but FWIW 3. Colby Rasmus, CF | Toronto Blue Jays Rasmus finished with 4.8 WAR in 2013, ahead of such center fielders such as Adam Jones, Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner. Despite missing more than 40 games, he still hit 22 homers and posted a .840 OPS. There are a few teams that could use a player like him, such as the Reds, Cubs and Giants, and the Jays have Anthony Gose ready to play center field in his absence. That would be a downgrade on offense, but Toronto wants to upgrade its rotation and Rasmus is probably the club's best trade piece when you consider their in-house replacement. Toronto can be a contender if it can get an elite pitcher, and Rasmus' value will never be higher than it is right now.

No actually, I didn't predict anything. I have always thought that AA would stick with Goins, and spend the money on pitching. But every team out there is looking for pitching and the price is too high. I predict that he will still sign a pitcher, but it won't be a top tier. So there you go, a prediction from me.

Really, is anyone seriously surprised. No one, and I mean no one is willing to trade prospects. As far as pitching goes, there is Tanaka, which the Jays aren't getting, Price, that would mean giving up the farm plus for, and a bunch of injury risks , like Garza etc. That there are no more guarantees with them, than what the Jays already have.

from espn insider: Apologies if this is already posted. Perhaps the Chicago Cubs are not really all that serious about getting rid of Jeff Samardzija, who could well be their Opening Day pitcher if no other team comes up with a trade package that will convince the Cubs to let their ace go. According to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, when the Atlanta Braves inquired as to the cost of obtaining Samardzija, "the Cubs indicated they would be looking for a return package that included either Jason Heyward or Justin Upton." That was more than the Braves were willing to give up, and probably sets the bar for an asking price that few teams will choose to rise to meet.

MaybeAA thought we already had two recovering from TJ, we didn't need another.

So according to reports, Stroman is close to the majors, and might start the season with the Jays, why is there such a panic to sign a pitcher. Without giving up anyone, couldn't the Jays improve the team at 2nd, a better bench and a bat to hit along with Lind?

Probably prospects. But someone else with better knowledge of all their prospects, could probably answer that. GeorgiaPeach?

The Toronto Blue Jays are believed to be in talks with at least two teams, if not more, to make some changes to their roster for the 2014 season. It all comes down to when and if general manager Alex Anthopoulos will feel comfortable enough with the proposed deals to pull the trigger. According to a report in Toronto Sun, the Blue Jays have been talking to the Chicago Cubs about starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs are said to want Toronto prospects Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and a third player in return. "The acquisition price doesn't work for us right now," Anthopoulos said. "We continue to have dialogue, so if you want to look at that as encouraging, I don't know. It's not so far out of the realm that we won’t continue to have talks." Another conversation that might ultimately bear fruit is with the Kansas City Royals. Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail says the two teams have talked about a deal that would include an exchange of prospects that would ultimately bring Billy Butler to Toronto. That potential Butler deal might gain some traction if Adam Lind ends up getting dealt to the Pirates, a trade that has been rumored to be an option for Pittsburgh, depending on how their pursuit of James Loney ends up.

I have a serious question. IF none of the trades you all hate, had taken place, where would this club be today? Be truthful now. Remember that the payroll would probably still be in the low 70's. Our pitching staff would consist of Happ, Morrow and ? Actually, we wouldn't have Happ, since we traded prospects for him. We would have Hech. Now how is that team going to get to the playoffs?

Kennedy on XM, says the Reds are desperate to get rid of Phillips because of clubhouse issues. FWIW

Well if JP had agreed to a deal with the Rangers before the non tender deadline, the Jays would have at least got some type of prospect.