Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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Hmm...hadn't realized (or completely forgot) his original deal got voided. Thanks. Even still, that original deal is a complete steal. A projected for ~3 WAR @ $6M per year? Umm... Pirates killed free agency with that and the Martin deal.
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Yah, our approach with arms is completely retarded. Can someone explain to me how Fransisco Liriano signed for $1M this year WITH a very reasonable CLUB option for next year? I mean, this is a guy who missed bats at a crazy rate last year (corresponding to a significant uptick in velo). Walks be damned, how the hell did he sign for that?
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Highly doubt it. I can't recall any research on that specific question but I'll say my intuition definitely does not agree with yours on this.
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6.2 K/9, Swinging strike rate well below league average? I dunno. Screams 3 or 4 starter to me.
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He had a career xFIP of 4.1ish coming into this year so I don't really see how this year specifically can be classified as any sort of breakout.
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4.20 FIP, 4.15 FIP Nothing thaaat impressive.
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Any better summary of the season than this headline? Lol.
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Regress it to the mean with about 5000 pitches, incorporate with the past 3 seasons of data and our best estimate of JPA's true talent framing is not good. Especially when to the eye he looks like a piece of garbage (though admittedly there may be some confirmation bias there). So while this can't possibly be interpreted as bad news for JPA, nobody should be calling him a good or average framer yet.
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You deserve to lose if you bunt down by 2 runs in the 9th inning.
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Sure, there may be causal factors that contribute to a winning streak outside of random variation around a team's true talent level. But you can't expect said factors to line up in this one instance. They may, but it remains unlikely. A proper simulation encapsulates all of this anyways.
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When did Frazier move to SS?
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Exactly.
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That, that is just not how this stuff works. We are not due a 7-10 game winning streak. It may happen but it's not likely. The fact that we have not had one yet does NOT make it more likely that we will.
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That's all built into the simulations that come up the commonly quoted playoff odds. Seasons with big streaks happen. That's obvious. But there's no added reason to expect one in the 2013 Jays' case.
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KSaw - You're being a raging homer in this thread. Making the playoffs is possible but highly unlikely. That's not really up for debate.
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Why are we throwing in a 10 game win streak? I mean, yah, the conditional probability of us making the playoffs given a forthcoming 10 game winning streak is obviously higher but that condition is non-sensical.
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A "stretch" of 100 games at that pace is not that likely. Just because we've played under our true talent level thus far does not make it more likely we'll perform above going forward. My stance on this team has not really changed. It was constructed as a 86-88 win team. Because of injuries and normal random variation, we've been worse than that. Assuming we play at our true talent rest of season, we project to miss the playoffs pretty easily.
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No reasonable person thought this was a 97 win team coming into the year.
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That's a pretty good summary. He looks like an idiot when he's defending but he's a fast idiot. So that mostly makes up for it.
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According to the other board, he should be our leadoff hitter when Reyes returns. Correspondingly, it makes sense to slot Reyes into the 9 spot.
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Reported.
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Neither do I. The bat speed isn't good.
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Optimizing between your 3rd and 5th hitters is probably going to yield like 1 or 2 runs over the course of the season. It's probably not even worth discussing further. If a team has their 3 best hitters hitting in the 1,2 and 4 slots they're like 90% of the way towards optimizing their lineup.
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Yah, slightly. Unless the your 4th best hitter gets a disproportionate amount of his offensive value from the long ball.
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Such tantalizing stuff.