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Nox

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Everything posted by Nox

  1. Nox
    Almost time to retire this narrative. WAR (of which stuff similar to wRC+ is a pillar) is becoming more mainstream every day. It's on broadcasts and on ESPN's player pages.
  2. Nox
    How are you so bad at posting? Serious question.
  3. Nox
    Don't worry about these other boobs. I'm listening. Can you expand on your thoughts here a bit?
  4. Nox
    It's not all about you Darrell.
  5. Nox
    Understood. Not even criticizing anything. Literally every projection system is going to spit out a few results that your intuition is going to immediately disagree with.
  6. Nox
    Will definitely take the under on Bautista's wOBA at .408.
  7. Nox
    Check your private messages for a life-changing opportunity.
  8. Nox
    Must be a no homerun league.
  9. Nox
    ~20% of NJH's career likes administered right here in this thread. We're witnessing history here people.
  10. Nox
    If anything, Aaron Sanchez is the most overrated arm in baseball. A "stuff" guy who can struggle with command needs to miss bats. He does not do that.
  11. Nox
    Said no legitimate baseball person ever.
  12. Nox
    The really unfortunate part here is that you're completely serious.
  13. Nox
    Vin Scully died?
  14. Nox
    Jesus. I really wish there was an efficient way to short that on a large scale. If that's what the betting market thinks, they're a bunch of f***tards.
  15. Nox
    People that matter already snicker at him. That's good enough for me.
  16. Nox
    Fangraphs comments are becoming intolerable. The best public projection system we have doesn't even have him as a top 10 pitcher and JFAs is getting s*** on because he's arguing that he might not be #1? Good grief. f***ing idiots.
  17. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Lmao @ Hockey. Take on ~$7.5 of Matt Hendricks and give up a 3rd round pick for a lateral move from Dubnyk to Ben Scrivens (who only has 1 year of control).
  18. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    You almost need a new account for re-posting something from that board, regardless of context. Sadly though, I get the distinct impression that a good number of NHL GM's don't take years of control into account when making decisions.
  19. Nox
    Another move like that and his Darrell membership is going to subject to review.
  20. Nox

    NHL Thread

    Nox replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    Teasing out the effect of teammates and linemates is a legitimately hard problem. I can't think of any non-bayesian approach that's going to do a respectable job. The analysis I've seen leveraging legit looking hierarchical bayesian models actually highlight some pretty interesting things. (DMen have almost no effect at even strength, thus are being vastly overrated by the market right now). The biggest issue with this stuff though is that you need an ungodly amount of computing power to run the necessary monte carlo sims. (hours per season sim of which there are many in an effective MC)
  21. Nox
    I feel like you know alot less about this than you think.
  22. Nox
    We all know Kevin Gray wouldn't like about a thing like this.
  23. Nox
    Explain exactly why you can't rank players based on a projection system. It seems like you're suggesting that you can't rank things that don't have a deterministic value and that doesn't make sense. A couple of more things: 1) you don't need a projection system at all to understand aging curves. 2) Projections are basically irrelevant in modern risk analysis. The only things that can seriously harm a franchise are things you can't predict.
  24. Nox
    Again, the point you're trying to make is completely muddled. Steamer's projections are their best guess at ranking players based on talent. Their guess and reality obviously differ but it still represents something more accurate than whatever any of our guts tell us.
  25. Nox
    Of course it's an estimate. Nobody is saying that it isn't. But what are they estimating? True talent and future performance measures are interchangeable in this regard (before non player specific adjustments are made to the outputs [park effects]).
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