Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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Similarly, last year Ryan O'Reily played 80 games of regular minutes and finished with only 2 PIMs for the season.
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Watch Kessel get traded to somewhere with a legit C1 and pot 50 next year.
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Don't disagree with that. Kane pretty much had to go. Just didn't love the return.
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I guess it depends what your definition of special is. Is Denard Span a "special player". Most would probably say not. But he definitely helps you win baseball games. Drew Stafford probably isn't that good (though we'll know more once he gets away from the rest of that historically bad roster). I'd easily take a Kane goals vs Stafford goals over the next 3 years bet.
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Enroth > Lindback
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Bogosian for Myers makes no sense. Myers has devolved from an elegant moose on the ice to just a moose. Kane is absolutely not garbage though, even he does spam the opposing net with crappy wristers. Despite playing with pretty questionable teammates throughout his career, he's driven possession consistently and has scored at a reasonable rate (especially when you consider his puck skills are pretty meh). Seguin > Kane, sure, but Kane is still a top 6 fwd in this league.
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Seems like 90% of the crap Kane takes is similar to what we saw during Seguin's last season in Boston. How did that turn out?
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This seems like a pretty garbage return. Stafford? Ew. Lemieux isn't worth much at all. Myers = meh. But then again, Kane is a pretty notable ********.
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Cool stuff Resident Cyborg. I do think that teammate effects are too ingrained to build WAR off of exactly what you have here but this is still solid and fun to look at. I also really don't like War-on-ice's "Road to WAR" series of posts. I hope future attempts and versions of this will continue to ignore some of their misguided ideas.
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Buffalo is real bad. PHX is just bad.
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http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-championship-belt-nfl-defense-edition/ But there's no way I'd take Brady over Rodgers.
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No.
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Even if the NFLPA is a joke, she sounds pretty insufferable. She also literally made a cake of her sucking Brent off. That's either alot of points for or against. I haven't decided yet. Definitely crazy though.
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Yea, honestly he might not be a top 10 guy, especially in this draft. I haven't looked close enough to have a true evaluation of his asset value. What is the right way to think about it with regards to CHL players in your opinion? All we have are scouting reports and a few statistics, some of which need to be inferred (eg. eP/60). Where scouting is concerned (at least, scouting from the CSS), the CSS in the past has done a far worse job of predicting whether prospects will play at least 200 NHL GP than simple draft year points per game. As well, read this recent article from the same author about Crouse. He is given a lot of ice time (mind you, he kills penalties, which shoots up his TOI) and plays with good teammates, yet still isn't producing the point totals you expect from a top 10 pick. That's concerning to me, even if he's been unlucky with the assists. Any analysis HAS to at the very least split his playing time into strengths.
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Then there's the survivorship bias stuff too. Guys who are luckier than normal (unrealistically high shooting %s, assist rates etc) will get more games than they should. Really unlucky guys will be labeled as guys who can't "bear down on chances" or something dumb and go play in Europe.
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And what amount of predictive power does that have in terms of his future JR assist rate? His NHL assist rate? Other holes in the study: 1) Using career GP is dumb. A team should only be focused on the years in which the player is under control after the draft. 2) Using GP as a measure of performance is inherently shaky. All sorts of biases are introduced.
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I feel like you don't understand something. You're saying Crouse shouldn't be drafted because of his low assist totals (you said points but given that his goal rate is fine for his age, a problem with his perceived assist rate is the simple deduction). I'm saying that's a really noisy measure and that our best guess of his future NHL assists would use very little from his measured past Junior assist totals. I don't even know if he's worthy of a top 10 pick. I just think to say that he's not a top 10 based on the simple fact his assist rate is lower than you expect from a top prospect is not the right way to think about it. And where did I say that he's a dman? If he was, he'd obviously NOT be in the conversation for a top 5 pick (over drafting of dmen is well documented and anecdotally obvious).
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The current information we have points to him being underrated by raw point totals.
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Without looking my stuff up, that seems to be in range for the aggregate population.
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For Dmen at even strength, it's literally entirely random.
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I don't agree with this assertion at all. If someone looks at his 7 assists this year and doesn't have the immediate first thought "that's probably really unlucky and that will most likely regress heavily to the mean", they need to try again. Secondary assist rate is hugely random at the NHL level. My prior would be that it's entirely noise in Jr.
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People can also stop lumping Eichel and McDavid in the same tier. McDavid is in the conversation for best prospect ever.
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Pretty sure our resident Rays fanboy is going to spend his entire budget on him.
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What's our best guess for what McDavid will go for in auction? If Mackinnon was $220 ish, Drouin $140...