Dr. Dinger

You got it.

I thought Hellickson would tick up the K rate this year too.

Mea culpa on the 200 Ks, that was certainly pushing the boundaries of defensible judgement. He'd have to pitch 180+ IP to get there and he doesn't go deep enough into games or have the job security.

He's on waivers; make a claim.

I don't think that at all, I just don't believe that every pitcher's ERA will regress towards their FIP in an expedient manner. I think Doubront, given enough innings, splits the difference between the two, and I still don't think that's good enough to play in this league. I also don't think his leash is long enough to get there.

You're not a believer in Doubront either, and fair enough. Apparently that makes 3 of us. In fairness to me, he got lit the f*** up again since then. He's got some things going for him, but rotation security certainly isn't one of them.

This is pretty much verbatim what I wrote to Boxy in a trade negotiation 3 days ago.

ERA is a category in this league. A liability to 3 categories isn't worth a boost in one. By all means, put a claim on him. I actually might. I do think he's a serviceable 5/6, but I also think he's cuttable if necessary.

I have a theory that I was right about Rick Porcello and NJH & BTS were wrong, and therefore my logic is infallible.

I'm not saying I don't like FIP or use it, I just won't cling to it when a fringe starter is repeatedly lighting up my fantasy line. There's virtually no chance that Doubront is a keeper for any team in this league.

Those picks are meaningless. Next year, many of those picks won't even be used.

I actually strongly agree with this. You can tell pretty early who the consistent holds guys are going to be, and they get snapped up and held onto. There are no 2012 Grillis still floating on the waiver wire.

I care less and less about DIPS. FIP doesn't take into account LOB% or H/9, and it pretty much loves any high K pitcher with an average HR rate. Some pitchers consistently outpitch their FIP (Cain, Vogelsong), and some consistently underdeliver it (Morrow, Doubront), and the difference often comes down to how well they pitch with runners on. Doubront gets knocked around a lot and has a poor walk rate. You can bank on his FIP if you want, but where fantasy is concerned, I care more about results. I consider that career 5+ ERA and s***** WHIP (or OBPA) over 200+ IP much more informative than his FIP.

I wouldn't touch Joba with a 10 foot pole, he's not even 3rd on their bullpen depth chart and his K/BB is a mess. Holds guys become available no more frequently than serviceable 5th/6th starters become available. IMO there aren't any holds guys nearly as good as Pestano available as FAs. Meanwhile, there is always a Porcello/Doubront/Tepesch/Westbrook/Lackey/Kazmir floating around.

I'd agree with you there, Porcello is shite. However, I think you need to separate what you know about the usefulness of ERA in real life from it's fantasy function. Doubront is a ratio torcher, plain and simple. I think a 4.50 ERA ROS is about the best you could hope for, and right now it seems far more likely that he'll lose his rotation spot altogether.

Who would you pick up off the wire right now for holds? It's much thinner than you're supposing.

Can't disagree with that assessment. I'm the opposite, I've done very little draft research and I don't want to bother doing much this year. I'm in too many leagues and busy with a new role at work. Also, my other deep dynasty is a total rebuild, so I'm more interested in being an immediate competitor here.

Tony Cingrani will be the waiver add of the year, although I think Evan Gattis has been a nice surprise too and will soon be C/1B/OF eligible.

Also, we're discussing players that will almost certainly be in the Waiver Draft next year. Hardly anything to get up in arms about.

I actually like Doubront alright, even though he's on the verge of losing his rotation spot. He strikes guys out, but he's a bit of a liability otherwise. I've owned him since last year in FC and he's a pretty consistent gascan... hell, NorthOf49 almost immediately dropped him (see waivers). I was facing a roster crunch to take on Uehara, and I needed to cut one of Doubront, Tepesch, or Rajai Davis. I decided to see what I could get for one of them, and I also needed Holds help. Pestano was a pretty good fit as I could stash him on my DL immediately. Really, FIP is pretty irrelevant here unless you suddenly think Doubront is going to start pitching to a sub-4 ERA, which I don't. Pestano is a much more fantasy relevant player in holds leagues, unless his elbow essplodes, which is a distinct possibility and, I assume, the primary reason why NorthOf49 was eager to part with him. If he returns to health, he and Uehara will add a lot to my bullpen, whereas Doubront was strictly a Ks guy who got bumped from his start this week for Allen Webster. I agree about the draft picks and relative value, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that I don't give a s*** about the upcoming draft.

No harm in using a waiver claim IMO, there won't be much if any elite talent hitter waivers.

BTS, I'm curious as to why you dislike this trade? It seems pretty innocuous to me.

No. Use it or lose it. Also, read the rules, I spent a lot of time writing them.

It's hard to imagine him making a 20 man roster in February. However I say he gets claimed in the mid-teens.

Duct tape that elbow, Pestano.