Okay, so I've been playing around with points per game among forwards and defencemen in the CHL in relation to age. When I ran a regression between PPG and date of birth (it transfers well to Excel), I got the following R^2 values for each:
Forwards: 0.16
Defencemen: 0.13 (Makes sense that this is lower since offense isn't as important for defencemen)
Afterward, I came up with an expected PPG value calculated using date of birth as the dependent variable in a linear regression formula. With that value, I subtract the player's actual PPG value by his expected PPG (relative to his DOB). Going by this measure, which I'll call age-adjusted PPG, here are the top 10 forwards and defencemen in the CHL:
Forwards (age-adjusted PPG):
1. Jonathan Drouin (1.85 aPPG)
2. Anthony Mantha (1.53)
3. Connor McDavid (1.48)
4. Sam Reinhart (1.33)
5. Nic Petan (1.30)
6. Nikolaj Ehlers (1.27)
7. Anthony Duclair (1.24)
8. Sam Bennett (1.23)
9. Leon Draisaitl (1.22)
10. Connor Brown (1.16)
Defencemen:
1. Anthony DeAngelo (1.12) (Ranked right below Brown in overall list)
2. Guillaume Gelinas (0.99)
3. Josh Morrissey (0.92)
4. Shea Theodore (0.84)
5. Derrick Pouliot (0.79)
6. Randy Gazzola (0.72)
7. Aaron Ekblad (0.67)
8. Julius Honka (0.64)
9. Mac Weegar (0.62)
10. Nikolas Brouillard (0.62)
Oh, and I did the regressions within each league.
Thoughts?