BTS
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Everything posted by BTS
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I think he'll get like 1/3 guaranteed + a team option for 3-4.
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Uh...
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Yeah. I could use him.
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yeah, it's actually bizarre. one year they had him for like 240 strikeouts and an ERA a bit over 3.
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Yeah, I also seem to remember Souza with a crazy high wRC+ projection.
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Burch Smith is our annual reminder that the guys behind Steamer have a sense of humour.
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People are implying that you're stupid because your post was dumb. 'Guys, projections aren't gospel' is an offensively obvious thing to say. Literally everyone knows that they don't perfectly project what a given player or team will do. People use them because they give a quick reference as to what a reasonable, unbiased expectation for a given player or team will look like.
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I don't understand the point you're trying to make here.
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lol, Steamer has Mahtook at a 79 wRC+. Ouch.
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And how should you go about projecting future performance?
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Anybody want Drew Storen?
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Chris Iannetta would be a pretty great backup.
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Dickey is a no-brainer at 12M I think. Probably 200 innings of ~4 ERA ball + the Dickey effect, and the team's only other starter is Stroman.
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QO is 15.8M.
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I want to see a Syndergaard vs. Dickey matchup.
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A whole team of boring white guys. The baseball world's wet dream.
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The Mets are scary good.
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Now that this thread has happened, Estrada is going to put up like a 3 ERA and 3.3 xFIP next year, causing this thread to be bumped until the end of time.
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Yeah, it's just a pointless exercise. The same factors that are out of the pitcher's control and make ERA unreliable make OPS unreliable.
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I don't believe I had read anything by Blengino before that Estrada article just now, but it led me to conclude that he's a moron.
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The only real takeaway from that article is that he gets a lot of IFFBs (typical of extreme FB pitchers) and manages LD well. The rest of the article is stupid. Using a pitcher's OBP and SLG to create an ERA estimator, and then using its proximity to his ERA to argue that his ERA is closer than his FIP to his true talent is lunacy. The ERA was low because the OBP and SLG were low. To question whether the ERA is a skill is to question whether the OBP/SLG was a skill. All that to say, he might induce weak contact. He probably does. But that's not going to turn a 4.9 xFIP into a sub-4 ERA over the long term. No pitcher in history has been that good at managing contact. If you're projecting Estrada at a sub-4 ERA, you're banking on a K/BB skill improvement, a GB skill improvement, or a combination of the two.
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I don't really see what Melky has to do with this. 3/40 was pretty reasonable for what you would have expected from him a year ago. For Estrada, you can probably count on one hand the teams that would expect to break even on a 3/30 deal.
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I wonder if there's any chance the Royals keep Gordon. Probably not. Someone will give him a Werth contract.
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Seriously though, is there a less sexy group of pitcher signings than Volquez, Vargas, and Guthrie? Crazy.
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He's not in? What's the point of the subforum with no candid JFaS?
