BTS

Ponce is traveling to NA earlier than expected because he's getting a lot of interest. He'll be signing with a team with a clear need in the rotation.

Seems like almost a perfect comp. Similar expected K-rates, they both walk a lot, both have 70-80 grade power, both LH hitting 1B etc...

It's such a weird profile. The fact that he's projected to be comfortably above average offensively with a k-rate like that is pretty crazy. I won't be surprised if there are teams out there willing to pay big money for a 26-year old with prodigious power, hoping they can coach him to a ~30% k-rate.

Steamer updated their Murakami projection and has him putting up a 115 wRC+ with a 33.6% K-rate

Kind of weird he’s not doing it already. He’s always been an extreme pull hitter. Might as well just grip and rip it and try to pull 30 dongs

I'm guessing he has 18 or so guaranteed in year 1. Something like 14M in 2026 plus a 14M player option and 4M buyout. Still less than I thought he'd get. Nice signing by Baltimore if he's healthy.

He fits in in a few different ways: contact hitter, still a plus 3B defender, big character guy. A dead cat bounce from a HoF talent at 35 isn't exactly out of the question either.

Depends on whether Bo is retained or not for me. If he's not, I'd think I'd take Arenado over Berrios to get out of the Berrios deal in 2028. Clement to 2B and backup SS, Barger 3B against the toughest RHP and corner OF when Arenado is in. I think the team probably squeezes more WAR out of Arenado this season than they do Berrios under the current configuration. I'm coming from the perspective that a Berrios rebound is unlikely though. Stuff+ has declined like 5 years in a row, to the point that he was just throwing slop last year.

Trying to wrap my head around an Arenado/Berrios trade. IIRC the luxury tax hit for the acquiring team is only based on dollars paid out for the remaining years. So: Arenado: 2 years 42M in real money 21M cap hit Berrios: 3 years 66M in real money 22M cap hit Arenado projects for 2 WAR, Berrios for 1.5. Is it crazy to think a straight swap makes sense for all 3 parties: - St. Louis frees up 3B playing time for a guy who might have a future with the team and gets a grizzled vet to eat innings for them. They're committed to paying more money and years than they would have, but it comes with a potential for being off the hook after 2026 if Berrios rebounds and opts out. - Toronto gets out of their commitment a year earlier and gets a guy who still plays a good 3B and seems to be a great clubhouse guy. It's a bit tricky roster-wise if Arenado declines again because you always have room for a 1-1.5 WAR SP but don't necessarily have room for a 1.5 WAR 3B. But that's the cost of shedding the 2028 commitment. - Arenado gets to play for a WS contender. I guess St. Louis probably needs a kicker from Toronto but it seems pretty close.

The 2026 luxury tax number is at about 271M though (also on FG). A bit less wiggle room if they want to come in under 284

Toronto's success identifying starting pitching has pretty much been off the charts: - Bassit just finished up a 3/63 deal over which he made 95 starts and put up 7.3 fWAR - Gausman finishing a 5/110 deal where he's started 125 games in 4 years and put up 17.9 fWAR - Trade for Robbie Ray and he wins the CY in his only full season with the team - Sign Kikuchi for 3/36 and he gives them 5.3 fWAR, and finishes the deal strong enough that he's one of the biggest deadline trade pieces in 2024 - Bring Eric Lauer back from the KBO on a minor league deal and he gives them 105 innings of 3.18 ERA ball - Drafting Yesavage 20th overall in 2024 - Pick up Ross Stripling for cheap. He has a career season with 3 fWAR. Then the team lets him sign a landmine deal in SF that immediately blows up. They've become an organization that you just assume knows what they're doing as far as pitching is concerned. If they've been after Cease for three years it isn't because they like his FIP and WAR on Fangraphs.com. The contract isn't an overpay. Everyone else just underbid.

I feel like if you're making the decision to spend 300M+ on Tucker, the draft pick compensation isn't really going to weigh in to the decision in a meaningful way. Like, you've already decided that he's a) a great fit for the 2026 team b) someone you think will age well c) someone you don't have concerns about in the clubhouse d) someone who wants to play here and e) someone you're aligned with on contract demands. If you're checking all those boxes and also adding like wins 94-98 or whatever, I don't see how losing picks in rounds 3 and 6 in the draft even moves the needle.

Hang up the phone

I think I'd rather have Berrios on the 2026 team, but O'Neill's deal expiring a year earlier makes it enticing

Baltimore will be after him in January when all the good starters ignore their 1-year offers. Judging by the Ward trade, Basallo should do it.

Gray and Cease coming off the board the last two days while Baltimore is sitting on like 2 MLB starters

It's a massive coup. The more I think about, Cease is clearly the most desirable arm on the market factoring in age/durability/skill/not being an ******* who deliberately crosses up your catcher

Agreed with this. The rotation is already 6 deep. They can also add interesting depth on minor league deals and ST invites. Tiedemann is lurking. Focus on other areas, and if SP looks like a need at the deadline address it then. Focus should be on a middle of the order bat + high leverage bullpen arm.

I love that this team really only targets rubber arm guys who they think have a good chance of staying healthy. Atkins probably hasn't even checked in on Michael King or Ranger Suarez. Cease also happens to have premium stuff, which is cool.

I don't know if you follow hockey, but everything happens in like 2 days at the start of the offseason and it sucks. Baseball fans have to deal with a 5-month offseason, and the fact that free agency lasts until spring training is a feature not a bug IMO

This is the dumbest argument on this forum in recent memory, and I hate each and every one of you for participating in it

Yeah. Honestly, Rendon at the time his contract was signed looks like a better signing than Kyle Tucker does right now. He's a year older, but his 3 seasons before free agency were 5.5, 5.9, 6.8 fWAR. Tucker hasn't ever hit 5 fWAR. 7/245M was not an outrageous amount of money for a player that age and caliber. The only angle you can really use to criticize LA is that maybe better due diligence would have uncovered evidence that he's actually a massive scumbag? But IIRC he didn't have that reputation publicly, and was actually considered a character guy coming off the WS win. The ultimate landmine. Possibly no evidence that that he even was a landmine.