I torn between wanting Bellinger to fail because Jim owns him in fantasy and wanting him to win the MVP because of the Terminator spin that would be required.
IIRC the situation with Adames was tough because he was open about not being able to see well at the Trop. His splits back that up: in his time with TB he had a 77 wRC+ at home and a 103 on the road.
Oakland might have still been better than most teams at some things 8 years ago - Beane was a competent GM and they might have still had an information edge on most teams. Both of those advantages might be gone now. Almost everyone they acquired last offseason saw their value plummet in 2022.
- MJ Melendez available for for a young CF or SP
- Taylor Ward available for picks/prospects or SP
- Kyle Lewis available for a pick upgrade
- 3rd round picks in this year's draft available for 3rd rounders next year
Arizona, Boston, both Chicago teams, Cleveland, Houston, LAA, Miami, Minnesota, San Diego, San Francisco, are all at least notionally trying to win and have weak catching.
Contreras + Yeager for Ruiz seems pretty fair. Honestly, at first glance I like it least for the Braves. But I might be overrating Contreras. Maybe he's a really bad receiver or something.
Muller, Tarnok, and Ruiz is a pretty good haul. A bit surprised that the difference between Contreras and Murphy was worth Muller, Tarnok, and Yeager to Atlanta.
Your argument, across multiple threads over the last couple of days seems to boil down to: all teams are run by smart people, and they have good reasons for operating the way they do, so we shouldn't say that any team has worse process than any other.
Fence sitting is a good way to put it. Seems like he's trying to get by on low-risk 2-3 year deals for OK vets and fluke into a few playoff appearances while collecting young talent. It hasn't worked because the prospects have mostly failed: Bart sucks, Ramos has cratered in AAA, Matos had a worst-case 2022, even Luciano was just OK last year.
The problem is that SF isn't good, at all. To whatever extent they rebuilt, they came out of it with Logan Webb, Thairo Estrada, and whatever Joey Bart is. They're not 1-2 players away from competing, even if those guys are stars.
The problem wasn't in trying. The Dodgers, Braves, and Cardinals never stop trying and I'm guessing Houston won't either. The problem is that their effort was a ham-fisted plan that mostly consisted of indiscriminately throwing money at whoever would take it, and most of those guys aged predictably. And what happens when they age isn't just that you have dead money. It would be better if they just cut their sunk costs. But most of the time these big contract players linger on the roster for years and eat up PAs while providing no value. They hurt your ability to spend and they hurt the on field product. Look at Miggy in Detroit and Pujols in LA. Hosmer has been costing the Padres wins for 5 years. If Bogaerts becomes a below average player, he's probably going to just keep playing SS for SD while proving no value.
As for the damage that was done in Detroit: 8 years of failure. Maybe more. That's a really, really big price to pay for a 4-year stretch of good baseball.
Let's go back a decade. Mike Illitch is a smart man. Tigers franchise value has increased a lot in recent years and Illitch wants to win. Dombrowski knows what he's doing, and they'll just keep spending to overcome the dead years on all of those contracts. Illitch can afford it. This is a trophy asset for him.
Fast forward to the present and the Tigers are on a run of 8 straight non-playoff years, still trying to recover from the damage Dombrowski and Illitch did for an exciting 4-year stretch of baseball. This is going to be the fate of Texas and Philly. Probably SD. Maybe the Mets.