BTS
-
Posts
42,995 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
17
Content Type
Profiles
Toronto Blue Jays Videos
2026 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking
Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
News
2026 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by BTS
-
I just can't quite justify the assumption that we should expect him to beat his xwOBA by 20 points going forward because he did in 2023 and 2024 (when he underperformed it if you aggregate every other year of his career).
-
Since his age-27 season he has a 0.332 wOBA and 0.327 xwOBA.
-
But I don't think that's actually true. He's being projected to put up a 0.323 wOBA. He was at 0.319 xwOBA 2023 and 0.327 in 2024. He also has a career 0.325 wOBA and 0.325 xwOBA.
-
I think the projections on Santander are basically what should have been expected. His xwOBA the last three years: 0.319, 0.327, 0.265. And Steamer/ZiPS have him at 0.323. Translates to like 1-1.5 WAR for someone who's in decline athletically and is purely a DH. Like, the projections done by the computers also seem intuitively right to me. Of course there's a path to him being a 2-3 WAR guy, but its like: - significantly outperform his xwOBA like he did in 2023 and 2024 (his xwOBA and wOBA are identical for his career) - stay healthy - revert to where he was athletically in 2024 (baserunning and defense). But that was two years and a major injury ago We all just watched Springer turn back time, so of course anything is possible. But I don't have a hard time buying Santander as an easily replaceable ~1.5 win corner OF if he's healthy, and I think a Sanchez/Schneider platoon covers that without any loss.
-
Since the Red Sox traded him STRAIGHT UP FOR VAUGHN GRISSOM: Sale 10 WAR in two years Grissom -0.7 WAR
-
Have you considered that maybe it’s you, and not all of the projection systems, who is wrong?
-
Bo is projected for a 121 wRC+ and Okamoto is projected for 116. Santander is projected for a 108 wRC+ and Sanchez is projected for 105. But Sanchez is also projected to be a better player overall than Santander. OBVIOUS MASSIVE HOLES
-
Yeah that's fair. If his stuff has backed up he'll be gone without much of a thought.
-
Kind of interesting how wide open the bullpen is with the injuries to Bieber and Garcia. 5 guys look like locks: Hoffman, Rogers, Varland, Lauer, Nance That leaves 3 spots available for like 8 guys: Bastardo (out of options) Miles (Rule V pick) Fluharty, Fisher, Lee, Little, Macko, Tiedemann (all optionable) A lot riding on how guys look in ST
-
Yimi García To Start Season on Injured List
BTS replied to Leo Morgenstern's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Yeah. Of all the memories I have from the WS run, I think it was Vardano's performance that stands out the most. -
Torn UCL for Pablo Lopez
-
I kind of agree with this. I don't think he's been bad for the game. As long as he doesn't lose games in 2027.
-
Sanchez has a career 111 wRC+ vs RHP and 41 wRC+ vs LHP. This should basically be a straight platoon with Schneider, with Lukes as the 4th OF.
-
Luckily, corner OF help is probably the easiest thing to acquire midseason. If a Lukes/Schneider platoon disappoints, and if none of Schreck/Loperfido/Clase step up, then there should be options for 2-3 WAR LF available at the deadline without breaking the bank.
-
Just saw that Reese Olson will miss the entire season. I guess that explains the Verlander signing
-
BTW a lot of people owe Jonn an apology. He was tarred and feathered for saying he wanted to fire Santander into the sun, even though he's owed like 4 times what he'd get if he hit the market this offseason.
-
I don't think the Santander injury really matters. He sucks. DH - Springer CF - Varsho RF - Barger LF - Lukes/Schneider platoon And Straw is still around. Schreck/Clase/Loperfido. If people underperform or injuries come up they might have to make a trade, but this looks mostly fine going into the season.
-
I think I f***ing hate this guy
-
Durbin is a good get for the Sox. He's an actual 3B, and will probably pick up a lot of doubles off the monster.
-
Brendan Donovan: Impact Bat
-
I think the notable personnel changes from last year's playoffs are: - Cease and Ponce replacing Bassitt and Scherzer - Okamoto replacing Bichette - Rogers replacing Dominguez The team looks pretty similar overall to the team that played game 7 last year. Probably about the same total projected WAR. The key is that this year's team looks a lot better and deeper than the team that went into spring training last year. If they play as expected I expect them to be very aggressive at the deadline.
-
Didn't want Bellinger at that price, so they can have him
-
Maybe, but the Brewers are smart and the Mets are the Mets
-
I think the owners have always wanted a cap, and the Dodgers give them a convenient villain to point to in the PR battle against the players
