V-Mart got 4/17 entering his age-36 season. Edwin (34) and Bautista (36) should be able to get at least that if their performance holds up over the next two years.
It doesn't really get more 'all in' than they were going into 2013. The farm system was depleted and payroll was taken to top-10 in the league with a roster of expensive veterans.
I dunno, take any team's projected rotation entering 2013 and see how many of the protected 5 are legitimately solid starters now. For veteran proven rotations you might have 2. If two of Norris/Stroman/Hutchison/Hoffman/Osuna look like valuable rotation members (or like they will soon be in the case of the last two) the team has done well.
More likely is that by 2017 Hoffman and Osuna have both turned into pumkins, one of the Norris/Hutch/Stroman trio sucks, another went down to TJS, and the third is awesome. I really wish the team's best prospects were hitters.
I think you're misunderstanding my point. I wasn't saying that the team will be full of albatross contracts in 2017. I was saying that maintaining this roster into 2017 is going to be impossible unless payroll is going up 20-30 M, and that's without a Shields contract on the books.
The only players expected to contribute in 2015 that won't be on FA contracts (or making 10+ M in arb) in 2017 are Pompey, Norris, Hutchsion, and Stroman.
That's the way I see it. The team looks legitimately good this year, and will probably still be good next year. But given age and projected salary of their best players, 2017 looks rough. A backloaded James Shields contract doesn't help at all.
Yeah. It just isn't feasible to commit another 20+ million in 2017 right now. As things stand we're already probably going to lose Edwin or Jose if payroll is staying under 150.
"To sign Shields, the Jays likely would need to back-load his contract the way they did with free-agent catcher Russell Martin, who will earn just $7 million in the first year of his five-year, $82 million deal."
Christ almighty things could get ugly a year or two from now. I'd like Shields, but backloading all these free agent deals is going to make it impossible to compete after 2016.
Porcello is about the last guy I'd expect to 'fall off a cliff'. Zero history of arm/elbow problems, and thrives by hitting his spots and getting groundballs.