TheHurl

#35 Jose Bautista (3B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 32 390 13.1 % 17.7 % .254 .351 .493 .365 129 5.6 0.8 3.0 Under Team Control Through 2016: $14 million, $14 million, $14 million option $14 million for a player of Bautista’s quality is a serious bargain. That said, his isolated slugging percentages for the past four years: .357, .306, .286, .239. Now 32, it’s probably unrealistic to expect Bautista to resume dominating the sport like he did a couple of years ago. He’s still a tremendous hitter, one of the best right-handed sluggers in the game, but he doesn’t appear to be other worldly anymore. So, Bautista would be a short term value play for contenders looking to put themselves over the top. I’m not sure sure it’s a given that his 2016 option gets picked up, depending on how he ages over the next couple of years, so it’s probably best to look at this as 2/28 with the possibility of being 3/42. You’re getting elite performance for a few years at a significant discount, but there’s not a lot of long term value. Still, if the Blue Jays did decide to blow things up and put Bautista on the block, the bidding war would get intense. He still projects as a +4 to +5 WAR player, and even mid market teams could afford his salary, giving them a shot at a legitimate star in order to make a deep playoff run. Toronto seems likely to hang onto him, but he’d be a fascinating trade chip if they did decide to get a little younger. #34 Ian Desmond (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 27 389 6.4 % 22.6 % .281 .328 .486 .349 122 3.9 2.8 3.5 Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration Since the start of last season, Desmond has racked up +8.4 WAR, nearly three wins more than the next best shortstop; only Robinson Cano and Mike Trout have larger leads over their closest competition during that span. His error problem has basically disappeared, allowing him to solidify himself as a true shortstop, and he’s settled in as a 125 wRC+ hitter thanks to his power. His approach at the plate could use some work, but really, that’s nitpicking at a position where there aren’t any perfect players. The downside here is the contract status, and Desmond is headed for his second round of arbitration and will be a free agent after the next two years are up. Given his recent success and the lack of quality shortstops, he’s in line for a significant payday. But, he’s just 27 now, so anyone acquiring him might still have time to get him signed to a long term deal that keeps him away from his mid-30s, and his spotty performance earlier might prove to keep his price reasonable. Still, without that kind of long term control, it’s difficult to place him any higher than this. But during the next two years and change that the Nationals hold his rights, Desmond seems likely to be one of baseball’s most valuable pieces. A durable shortstop who can hit, and whose salaries are held down by the arbitration process, is a big time building block. #33 Carlos Gomez (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 27 362 4.4 % 23.2 % .296 .338 .534 .371 136 12.3 4.0 4.6 Under Team Control Through 2016: $7 million, $8 million, $9 million And the best decision of the year goes to Doug Melvin, for deciding to buy Gomez’s first three free agent seasons for a grand total of $24 million. Had the Brewers let him hit free agency after this kind of age-27 breakout, he’d have been looking for a $100 million deal and maybe more. Instead, they now control one of the game’s more dynamic center fielders for the price of a decent platoon player. It should be noted that Gomez almost certainly won’t keep up his current level of production. His .354 BABIP is 51 points higher than his own career average prior to 2013, and while he’s an excellent defensive outfielder, he’s not going to keep running a UZR that grades him out as +20 runs better than the average center fielder. Regression is coming. But even a regressed version of Carlos Gomez is still pretty terrific. ZIPS and Steamer project him as a roughly a +4 WAR player going forward, and he’s entering the years that often result in peak performance. Like Desmond, he doesn’t draw walks but does everything else well, resulting in a fantastic player even if he gets there in an unconventional manner. Toss in a contract extension that looks like one of Scott Boras’ rare misses, and Gomez is a terrific asset for the Brewers. #32 Shelby Miller (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 22 104.2 9.63 2.49 36.7 % 2.92 3.08 3.39 2.4 2.0 Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration A year ago, Shelby Miller was battling a long ball problem in Triple-A, but what he’s done in the big leagues since then has put to rest any questions about his status as one of the game’s best young pitchers. He’s only got 118 innings under his belt as a Major Leaguer, but there’s nothing to quibble with: he throws hard, has a knockout curveball, pounds the strike zone, and misses bats in the process. If you want to pick nits, you could complain about his lack of a third pitch, except his curveball works just fine as an out-pitch against both RHBs and LHBs, so there’s no large platoon split to worry about. That he’s this low essentially reflects the risks associated with pitchers in general, and some lingering question about whether he’d be able to succeed at the same level without Yadier Molina. While no one that I’ve talked to has come right out and said that they devalue pitchers after they leave St. Louis, I have had several friends in the game mention that they think a lot of the STL pitchers benefit tremendously from Molina’s work. If a team really believes that Molina is a driving force behind that pitching staff’s success, they might be somewhat less willing to pay a premium to experiment with how well that pitcher would do throwing to another catcher. But, of course, Miller was a very good prospect coming up through the minors, and Molina wasn’t him catching him then. I doubt he’d fall apart simply because he changed teams, and there would certainly be a line of teams that would love to see him prove this theory wrong on their squads. But, if you’re wondering why a 22-year-old who is dominating Major League hitters and comes with five more years of team control is this low, that’s basically the reason. Pitchers break, the track record is short, and the Molina factor might hurt his trade value a little bit. Thankfully, though, he probably doesn’t have to worry about what he’d do throwing to someone else, because I don’t see any scenario where the Cardinals give him up. #31 Starling Marte (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 24 401 3.5 % 22.2 % .291 .342 .462 .349 125 8.9 5.4 3.6 Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration It’s not entirely fair to call Marte a young Carlos Gomez, but beyond Gomez’s six additional home runs, their 2013 lines look much the same. Marte opened a lot of eyes with his fantastic early season play, and give his combination of athleticism and broad base of skills, he can regress and still be a terrific player. As with Gomez, there are concerns about his approach at the plate, and whether pitchers will start exploiting his swing-at-everything plan. Like with Gomez, a lot of his 2013 value is tied up in defensive metrics and a probably unsustainable high BABIP. I don’t want to belabor the comparison, but they are very similar types of players having the same type of season. Only with Marte, you get two additional years of team control, both at near minimum salaries. In some ways, I think I’m underselling his value by placing him here, but on the other hand, teams have shown that they’re not as willing to pay for speed-and-defense in the corners. Marte could certainly handle a move to center field, but his defensive value isn’t going to be as appreciated while he’s playing next to Andrew McCutchen, and the things he does well aren’t quite as sexy as launching balls into the upper deck. Like many young players with this set of skills, Marte’s actual value is likely higher than his trade value. But there are enough teams out there who would love to make Marte their center fielder that Pittsburgh would have no shortage of suitors if they decided to make him available. Which they won’t, because he’s one of the primary reasons the Pirates are finally good.

#40 Allen Craig (1B/OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 28 381 5.5 % 16.8 % .333 .378 .494 .378 145 0.1 -5.7 2.1 Under Team Control Through 2018: $3 million, $6 million, $9 million, $11 million, $13 million option Allen Craig is perhaps one of the least exciting good players on the list. He just turned 28, so he’s not exactly brimming with youth. From a tools perspective, he’s somewhat lacking, and will never be mistaken for an Olympic athlete. He’s a first baseman who occasionally plays the outfield, and isn’t all that great at either spot. He’s not a good baserunner, and he has a history of health problems. But Allen Craig can really hit. In just over 1,200 big league plate appearances, he has a career .310/.357/.508 mark, good for a 138 wRC+. While you could make a case that he falls into the underpowered corner profile, given that a lot of his extra base hits are doubles and not home runs, Craig makes up for the lack of dingers by hitting for a very high average. He’s not a pure slugger, but the game is low on guys who can hit .300 and while slugging .500, and Craig is one of the best at this kind of combination. What puts him in the Top 50, however, is his contract. Because he was a late bloomer, the Cardinals basically controlled his entire prime, and then bought out his arbitration years in order to get an option on a free agent year at a discounted price. If they end up picking the option, the remainder of his contract will work out to $41 million over five years; if they don’t, it’s $28 million for four. Getting this kind of offensive production at that price, through his prime years, makes Craig a very valuable piece. While he might not be the most thrilling player in the league, he is one of the most productive, and his low salary would make him a fit for every team in the league. #39 Carlos Santana © Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 27 361 14.7 % 17.7 % .275 .382 .466 .367 137 -10.1 -2.8 1.7 Under Team Control Through 2017: $4 million, $6 million, $9 million, $12 million option There’s a decent argument to be made that Carlos Santana should not be considered a catcher, for the purposes of a list like this. Whether it’s controlling the running game, blocking pitches in the dirt, or pitch framing, Santana regularly rates as one of the worst defenders in the sport, and he’s only getting older. There’s a point at which a catcher is giving back on defense all of the value he gets from position scarcity, and Santana is probably pretty close to that point. But here’s the good news; even if he’s not viewed as a catcher, Santana is still good enough to be a legitimate building block. At age-27, Santana’s finally showing what kind of hitter he can be when he posts a relatively normal BABIP. For his career, even with a lower than average BABIP, he’s got a 125 wRC+, and that’s while spending most of his games crouched behind the plate. History shows a pretty significant offensive penalty for players who catch, and moving Santana to first base mostly full time may very well allow him to sustain numbers even better than he’s posted so far. And, like with Craig, the contract is a large part of his value. Including the team option, the Indians control his rights for four more years at a grand total of $30 million; if something goes wrong and they end up declining the option, they’re only on the hook for $18 million over three years. Santana is just now entering his prime, is making the kind of salary you generally expect from a part-time role player, and is already one of the best switch-hitters in baseball. He has the bat to move off catcher and still be highly productive, and at his price, is one of the best return on investments in the sport. #38 Wil Myers (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 22 112 5.4 % 25.9 % .288 .321 .413 .316 103 0.9 0.9 0.5 Under Team Control Through 2019: Pre-Arb, Arbitration The fact that Wil Myers was traded, with other prospects, for James Shields and Wade Davis a few months back could be taken as a sign that this is too aggressive of a ranking for a kid with no real Major League track record and some legitimate concern about his future contact rates. If he develops into the next Jay Bruce, is it worth putting him this high when I left off the original Jay Bruce? I think it is, because we can’t overlook the tremendous value that a player provides during his first few seasons in the big leagues. Wil Myers, right now, is probably something close to a Major League average player, and he’s making the league minimum. He’ll make something close to that next year too, and the year after that, and the year after that, since the Rays kept him in the minors long enough to avoid Super Two qualification. And then he’ll have three more years of team control at arbitration prices. 6+ years of a player, three of them at about as a low of a price as you can pay to fill a roster spot. Myers doesn’t have to be a star in order to justify this ranking, as the quantity of production he’s going to provide for such a low cost has significant value in and of itself. Teams pay a lot of money for average players, and having a stock of pre-arb players like Myers is how the Rays continue to win on small payrolls. And of course, Myers might very well develop into a very good player. He swings and misses a lot, but he also has a lot of power, and that combination can add up to a lot of value as long as he doesn’t swing and miss so often that it cancels out the power. Toss in some defensive ability and there’s certainly All-Star potential. If he lives up to it, he’ll move up the list in a hurry. If he doesn’t, though, that’s okay, because just having a solid contributor making nothing for multiple years has a lot of value in and of itself. #37 Anthony Rizzo (1B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 23 396 10.4 % 17.9 % .241 .328 .441 .333 108 5.6 0.4 1.5 Under Team Control Through 2021: $1M, $5M, $5M, $7M, $7M, $11M, $15M option, $15M option So far, Anthony Rizzo has not been a particularly great Major League player. He’s a slow-footed first baseman with a career wRC+ of 103 in nearly 1,000 plate appearances, and he hasn’t taken a step forward yet this year. However, there is a lot of reason for optimism. For starters, there’s the fact that he’s just 23. He got to the big leagues young, and has held his own despite the fact that his peers were still toiling away in the minors. He’s also shown some serious power, as 42% of his career hits have gone for extra bases, and that has risen to 50% this year. The doubles haven’t yet turned into home runs, but given his age, there are plenty of reasons to think that they will. Both ZIPS and Steamer project him to improve in the second half, and he’s basically a small power spike and a slightly higher BABIP away from being one of the better hitters in baseball. Given normal development, Rizzo looks to be on course to turn into an offensive force. It’s not a guarantee, of course, but he’s showing all the signs of being an offensive machine, and it may happen in the very near future. If it does, the Cubs won’t have to worry about his price soaring, because they preemptively locked him up to a seven year contract that gave them two team options, so even after this season, they’ll control his rights for eight more years. If they pick up his options, their total cost will be somewhere around $65 million depending on incentives; if they don’t, they’re only out $40 million, and still would have gotten seven years of production for that money. The upside here is enormous. If Rizzo becomes a franchise first baseman, the Cubs will have massive cost savings, and there’s not that much downside as long as he stays healthy. It’s a lot of projection and not as much present value, but for a team looking long term, Rizzo is one of the game’s best values. #36 Salvador Perez © Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 23 299 3.7 % 12.7 % .284 .314 .396 .311 93 1.3 -1.2 1.4 Under Team Control Through 2019: $2M, $2M, $2M, $4M option, $5M option, $6M option Perez is in the midst of his worst offensive season, as his power has regressed back closer to where it was in the minor leagues, and since he’s an extremely aggressive hitter, he needs to drive the ball to be successful. However, Perez is not the kind of player who has to hit to be an asset. Perez is, by most accounts, an excellent defensive catcher. He has a very strong arm, is far more agile than most behind the plate, and comparisons to Yadier Molina have been made. That’s unfair to the kid, but certainly, it speaks to his skills as a receiver. Unlike with many other young catchers, we’re not counting down the days until Perez moves to an easier position to save his knees. He’s almost certainly going to be a catcher for the duration of his career. And because the Royals signed him so early in his career, most of that career will likely be spent in Kansas City. The salaries are significantly deflated because the Royals locked him up so early into his career, but the real value lies in the three team options. If he develops into a true two-way force behind the plate, the Royals will have him at backup catcher prices during his most productive years. If his career gets sidetracked by injuries or the bat stagnates, the Royals aren’t committed to paying him any real money. He’s perhaps the lowest risk player on this list, simply because of the prices he’s agreed to play for over the next six years. If he develops, he’s a massive steal. If he doesn’t, then he’s still a very useful big leaguer making hardly any money. His floor is exceptionally high, and while his ceiling might be debatable, he’s similar to Myers in that he doesn’t really have to improve to be a big time asset. If he does hit, this ranking is way too low.

#45 Edwin Encarnacion (3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 30 399 11.5 % 11.3 % .264 .353 .532 .380 140 -1.2 1.4 2.7 Under Team Control Through 2016: $9 million, $10 million, $10 million option Encarnacion’s breakout 2012 season has carried over into 2013, as the Blue Jays first baseman has proven himself as one of the game’s premier power hitters, and has actually even lowered his strikeout rate again this season. Encarnacion’s combination of power and contact are extremely rare, and serve to make him a highly valuable player even though he’s a defensive liability who doesn’t do much besides hit. There are other good sluggers who won’t be on this list, though. Encarnacion is here primarily because of the Blue Jays decision to lock him up last summer. That contract has turned out to be a fantastic decision, and even after this season, the Blue Jays will still control his rights for three more years at a total cost of $29 million. Guys who signed similar contracts as free agents last winter: Cody Ross, Jeremy Guthrie, Jonathan Broxton. Yeah, I think Encarnacion is underpaid. His skillset isn’t one that generally ages that well, and his success record is still on the shorter side, but Encarnacion is an elite slugger in his prime signed to an absurdly team friendly deal. He might not be a household name, but there aren’t many players in baseball providing this kind of power at a reasonable cost. #44 Anthony Rendon (2B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 23 177 7.3 % 18.1 % .301 .352 .460 .354 127 -1.3 0.5 1.1 Under Team Control Through 2019: Pre-Arb, Arbitration On upside, Rendon could probably be in the top ten. So far, he’s showing signs that he can make a successful conversion to second base, and his bat could be really special relative to other second baseman. The Nationals control his rights for six more seasons after this one, including several at the league minimum. He’s a quality performer with the chance to become a star. But, at the same time, the track record is just too short to promote him any higher. The injury questions that haunted him in college followed him to the minors, and he’ll need to play 150 games for several years in a row before we know whether he can actually hold up to that kind of schedule. Moving him to second base might exacerbate his health issues, so there’s an argument to be made that the value added from the position change could also be a detriment long term. Rendon is a big risk/big reward guy, and that’s why he’s near the bottom of the list. In a year, he’ll probably either be much higher or not on the list, depending on how his first full year as a big leaguer goes. If he stays at second base and avoids the DL, he might just end up in the top 10, but that’s hardly a given, and the unpredictability limits his trade value, despite the obvious upside. #43 Jason Heyward (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 23 289 10.4 % 17.0 % .227 .324 .371 .312 98 9.3 0.6 1.6 Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration Last year, I put Heyward at #9, as he reminded everyone of the player he could be, and again looked like a star in the making. He’s followed up a fantastic all around season by once again losing his power stroke, and while he’s just 23, the inconsistency is doing a number on his value. There’s only so long that teams will keep paying for potential, and his dwindling years of team control exacerbate the problem. Despite his youth, the Braves only control Heyward’s rights for two more seasons after this one. He may very well bounce back and once again show that he can be a franchise building block, but by the time he put his inconsistency behind him, he’d be a free agent. Right now, Heyward finds himself in the slightly awkward position where both his present value and his future value have been diminished. All that said, we’re still talking about a 23-year-old who already has accumulated +15 WAR in his career, and projects as a +4 win player going forward. Guys who can hit Major League pitching their early twenties often go on to become superstars. Heyward’s defense and baserunning give him a high floor even if the bat never does develop the way it looked like it might have earlier on, and if it does, then he’s got a shot at being one of the most complete players in the sport. But there’s just so many ifs here. Heyward would be a popular trade choice, but he probably wouldn’t be anyone’s first choice, either for winning now or winning later. #42 Jean Segura (SS) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 23 397 4.3 % 12.1 % .325 .363 .487 .367 134 -2.4 0.8 3.2 Under Team Control Through 2018: Pre-Arb, Arbitration I will openly admit to having some hesitation about this rating. Segura’s first half bears some pretty strong resemblances to what Alcides Escobar did in the first half last year, earning his way onto the bottom of the list before he decided to remind us that he’s kind of a terrible hitter. Segura has more power than Escobar, but his defensive reputation isn’t as strong, and it wouldn’t be that surprising if he fell apart in the second half, making this ranking look silly in retrospect. But, if you haven’t looked around at the current crop of shortstops lately, it’s not a very pretty sight. There just aren’t that many guys who can play the position and provide significant offensive value, and while Segura’s track record basically boils down to two good months at this point, he looks like the rare young shortstop who can hit. And, as with all players with his experience level, the price is right. He’s got two more league minimum years before he gets to arbitration, and the Brewers control his rights for five more seasons after one. If Segura establishes himself as one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, he’s going to be absurdly valuable based on his production and cost. It’s not a sure thing, but given the lack of quality offensive shortstops in baseball right now, there’d be a long line to take a shot at Segura if the Brewers put him on the block. #41 Jeff Samardzija (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 28 124.0 9.29 3.19 47.4 % 4.06 3.62 3.38 1.1 1.9 Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration By ERA, Jeff Samardzija has been pretty average this year, and hasn’t really established himself as a true front line pitcher. By metrics other than ERA, Samardzija is one of the best power pitchers in baseball. If the Cubs decided to sell on Samardzija, there would certainly be some teams scared off by the runs he’s allowed, but there’d be a long line ready to make him their future ace as well. Samardzija’s a bit older than most of the guys without long track records of success, but his football background gives him a bit of a pass, and age isn’t as important for pitchers as it is for hitters. Samardzija’s been very good since his fastball started sitting in the mid-90s, and he’s posted identical 3.38 xFIPs over the last two years. There are a lot of reasons for optimism about his future. Like Price, he’s an arbitration eligible pitcher only under control for two more years after this season. Unlike Price, though, his arbitration payouts are fairly modest, and his inflated ERA may just help them stay that way. Samardzija’s lack of accolades should help keep an extension cost out of the stratosphere, and acquiring him now in order to buy out his free agent years at a discount wouldn’t be a bad strategy. Of course, that’s also why the Cubs won’t trade him.

One of my favourite features each year, the Fangraphs Trade Value top 50 is going on right now. 50 through 31 is already posted. #50 Austin Jackson (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 26 302 10.3 % 20.5 % .280 .355 .403 .336 110 -0.8 4.7 2.0 Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration While Jackson hasn’t been as good as he was a year ago, he’s still an extremely athletic 26-year-old with a pretty strong performance record. Whether he can consistently hit for enough power to be a true star remains to be seen, but his contact rate improvements have made that less of a necessity. He’s already a very good player, but there remains additional upside beyond what he’s done this season. The two years of team control are the big stickler here, and why he just snuck onto the list. Any team trading for Jackson would get his age-27 and age-28 seasons at a legitimate discount, given that he doesn’t do the types of things that pay huge money in arbitration, and would have be acquiring the right to try and sign him long term. Without that kind of security, though, Jackson’s value is somewhat limited, but his relatively low HR/SB totals could make a multi-year deal with Jackson possible at a reasonable price. Unless Detroit gets him to sign that kind of deal, though, this is likely Jackson’s last appearance on the Trade Value list. He’s getting closer to the point where he’d be an extended rental, and with Scott Boras as his agent, don’t expect him to pass on free agency once it gets within spitting distance. For now, though, Jackson’s combination of low salary and high performance earn him the final spot on this year’s list. #49 Justin Verlander (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 30 126.0 8.93 3.21 42.3 % 3.50 3.23 3.64 2.6 3.0 Under Team Control Through 2019: $20 million in ’14, $28 million through ’19 This was one of the most difficult ratings of the entire list. The “What’s Wrong With Justin Verlander” narrative seems to be growing, despite the fact that his 3.23 FIP says that he’s just fine. Still, Verlander doesn’t look quite as dominant as he did the last few years, and he is a 30-year-old pitcher with a lot of mileage on his arm and a huge price tag for a long time. Odds are good that the end of his current contract is going to be a bad deal. However, we cannot just overlook Verlander’s remarkable amount of present value. Even at $20 million next year, he’ll be significantly underpaid, and the value of a legitimate #1 starter remains extremely high given that those players just don’t make it to free agency anymore. There are a lot of teams who wouldn’t be able to carry Verlander’s salary, but there are enough high revenue clubs that could to start a bidding war if the Tigers decided to make him available. Long term contracts for pitchers generally work out poorly, and Justin Verlander might be showing signs of decline. However, even during his “struggles”, he’s still among the game’s best hurlers, and his value over the next few years outweighs the potential albatross nature of his deal at the back end. With money flowing into the game, teams can afford to pay the best players in the game, and Verlander remains a difference maker. #48 Adrian Beltre (3B) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 34 399 5.5 % 10.5 % .316 .358 .543 .386 140 0.7 -1.9 3.3 Under Team Control Through 2016: $17 million, $18 million, $16 million voidable option It’s easy to still think of Beltre as a glove first third baseman who also hits sometimes, but since the start of the 2010 season, he has a 139 wRC+, good for 12th best in all of baseball. That’s a better mark that Giancarlo Stanton has put up during the same stretch, if you want some context. Beltre has developed into one of the best hitters in the sport, but it hasn’t come at the cost of the rest of his value. As an all around player, Beltre has few peers, combining MVP level offense with stellar defense at third base. If he was younger or cheaper, he’d probably be in the top 10, but this ranking reflects the reality that he is 34-years-old and due either $35 million over the next two seasons or $51 million over the next three. For his level of production, the price is still a huge steal, but there aren’t a lot of players that can maintain +6 WAR paces into their mid-30s, and Beltre should probably be expected to slow down in the not too distant future. However, the contract isn’t so expensive or so long that it would prohibit a team from acquiring a true star who would represent a monstrous upgrade in the present. Beltre might not have as much long term value as everyone else on this list, but his short term value is immense, and would require a significant bidding war to get him from the Rangers. #47 David Price (P) Age IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP RA9-WAR WAR 27 80.0 7.54 1.58 48.1 % 3.94 3.45 3.37 0.5 1.5 Under Team Control Through 2015: Arbitration Last year, Justin Upton was the guy on the list that we all knew was going to get traded, testing the market for his skills. This year, Price is that guy, as he’s very likely to be moved this winter, as his arbitration payout will price him out of the Rays budget. So, we’re going to find out in a few months exactly what Price’s trade value actually is. My guess is that the price is going to be extremely high. Price’s mid-season DL stint hurt him somewhat, and his rapidly escalating arbitration payouts thanks to Super Two status have already made him expensive, but for a risk averse team that wants a #1 starter and doesn’t want to commit a couple hundred million to get one, Price might be a very enticing option. At probably something in the neighborhood of $35 million in arbitration payouts before he hits free agency, Price isn’t low cost, but he’s easily capable of providing a lot of value beyond those salaries before he hits the open market. The question will be how whether a team is willing to bet big on a premium arm who both spent time on the DL and showed significant velocity loss. How he pitches in the second half may go a long way to establishing his trade value, but we don’t have the luxury of knowing how that’s going to turn out at this point. So, for now, Price slots in towards the bottom of the list. There are red flags here, but there’s also a ton of upside. The trade market for him should be fascinating. #46 Desmond Jennings (OF) Age PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 26 399 9.0 % 18.3 % .267 .335 .449 .341 119 -2.3 3.8 2.7 Under Team Control Through 2017: Pre-Arb, Arbitration Jennings might be the quietest star player in baseball. After spending his first few years playing next to B.J. Upton, he’s now taken over center field full time, and he continues to progress as a hitter at the same time. While he falls into the category of guys with somewhat mixed offensive track records, he’s over 1,000 plate appearances of above average offense and hasn’t yet turned 27-years-old. The contract is a significant part of his value as well. He’s still got another year of league minimum play, as the Rays kept him in the minors long enough that he should avoid Super Two status, and then he has three arbitration years to go before he gets to free agency. That leaves Jennings with four low cost seasons, coming from ages 27-30, as a terrific athlete who is showing real offensive promise. There’s enough variance in his game that he could go either direction on this list. The upside is there for him to turn into Andrew McCutchen Lite and be among the most valuable players in the game. If the power disappears again, he might end up in the pile of +3 WAR players just on the outside looking in. But, the speed and defense aren’t going anywhere any time soon, and Jennings athleticism gives him enough of a boost to get him onto the back end of the list. Where he’ll be in a year depends on how much of his current power he can sustain.

How does anyone not like Rivera?

http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/large/791212534.gif?1374030610

you spelled "spelled" wrong so everyone's even. I've missed the whole game so I can't confirm whether they did or not but if they did Fox should get ripped for it.

Yeah they have been dating for over a year now. http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/eh-game/ricky-romero-kara-lang-helping-other-back-best-221711586.html

Kara Lang...it's alright we can just discuss it here. GDT's take up enough bandwidth

You should have done a GDT for Sportsnet Magazine's Beauty of Sport show as at least I'm watching it. Romero's woman is hosting so it's got a Bison's angle to it.

There are site upgrades going on right now and I was away all weekend. Can anyone tell me what my matchup ended up at?

I do think that a lot of people are mis-remembering their opinions of the Dickey trade. While there weren't that many that didn't think it was possibly an overpay, most wanted Dickey on the team.

Perfect Game had him at 74th. Everyone should be happy to know that he's a dead pull hitter

no, Gose fans and Marisnick fans are archenemies.

really? Personally I've always ranked Marisnick higher than Gose and now that I've had a chance to see his D is legit (while still not as good as Gose). There isn't a huge gap between Marisnick and several top 25 OF's (JBJ, Soler, Polanco and even Yelich come to mind).

I looked it up and he has never put the Jays in his "First day winners" or his "First day losers" until this year. I'm not a huge fan of Law's amateur rankings though. At least not compared to BA or Perfect Game.

we'll have to see where he ends up next year. He still would have made over $1M this year if he was willing to sign for it. Padres also tried to low ball him that year too. Offered him virtually the same as what we offered Deck. $3M less than what Zach Lee got, $500K less than Ranaudo and $150K less than Allie got. All guys he was ranked higher than. I don't think Whitson will work himself back to the top 20 next year to make his $2.1 he turned down but I think he'll get paid still. Dylan Covey was drafted 14th in 2010 and turned around to get just $350K out of the 4th round this year but he intended to sign in 2010 until he was diagnosed as diabetic and didn't want to start his pro career until he new he could handle being on the road with the diabetes.

Didn't he love our 2011 and 2012 drafts

Doesn't point out that most others that have turned down first round money have got at least the same when they did sign. I'm not sure if any high schooler has turned down top 10 money though. There just isn't that much room to move up for him. Chances are he could blow out his arm and still make a million though.

Did we learn nothing from Lind, small sample sizes don't necessarily mean changes in approach. The fact remains about Rasmus is that he's about to enter his making real money portion of his career. Guys who are putting up similar numbers are getting $13M+ a year. Colby will probably make $8M next year. Has he shown the consistency to be worth locking him up at this price? Pretty much if they aren't locking up Colby at a team friendly deal right now we have to consider that he'll be making FA money by 2015 and I think he'll want to get paid like the top 7 CF that he's showing right now.

Can I tell her you called her average?

I'll withhold opinion until I see what happens with Tellez and Brentz. I was very much in favour of letting Bickford walk if he wanted overslot money that would cost us one of the two mentioned. If we don't get them I don't get it at all. Now the question is, with what was really a reach for the 10th pick...why didn't we have a pre-draft deal in place (against rules...blah blah blah) either Bickford was a strategy or a bad pick.

Has anyone caught the post game on Sportsnet 360 yet? I keep forgetting to check it out, didn't like who they had but I was wondering if it would be straight post game or post game and diamond surfing. If it was that I'd watch

jpbb

A Chris Perez special