Blue Jays Roundup, Oct 29: Rule 5 Protection, Award Candidates, Grichuk Target

[Jays Centre]

Here is some of the latest Blue Jays analysis and history from around the internet. The roundup covers Rule 5 Draft protection for prospects like Nolan Perry and Gage Stanifer, lessons from the Brewers and Rays, award candidates including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dylan Cease, the 2021 team's missed playoff chances, Randal Grichuk as a free agent target, and a look back at Juan Guzman's 1991 season.

• Who Must the Blue Jays Protect From the Rule 5 Draft? (Just Baseball). Notes the Blue Jays must protect key prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, highlighting Nolan Perry (2.32 ERA, 31 innings in 2026), Gage Stanifer (161 strikeouts in 2025), Josh Kasevich (.282/.364/.363 in 2026), and Daniel Guerra (12.29 K/9 in 2026) as top candidates due to their performance and potential.
• What can the Blue Jays learn from the Brewers and Rays this World Series? (MLB.com). Notes that the Blue Jays can learn from the Brewers and Rays by improving their ability to win in different ways, emphasizing the importance of walks, advanced baserunning, and developing multiple pitching stars, with the Brewers leading in walks (668) and stolen bases (162), and the Rays and Brewers both excelling in pitching development.
• Which Blue Jays could be up for award hardware? (MLB.com). Notes the Blue Jays' potential award candidates, highlighting Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s defensive performance, Andrés Giménez's Gold Glove pedigree, Nathan Lukes' underrated defense, Brandon Valenzuela's strong catching, and Dylan Cease's Cy Young-caliber season with a 2.40 ERA and 239 strikeouts.
• The 2021 Blue Jays deserved better (Blue Jays Nation). Looks back at the 2021 Toronto Blue Jays, arguing they had one of the best offenses in MLB history, hitting 262 home runs with a .311/.401/.601 line from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 45 home runs from Marcus Semien, and a 91-71 record, yet finished one game out of the playoffs due to injuries and bullpen struggles.
• Blue Jays free agent target: Randal Grichuk (Blue Jays Nation). Notes that the Blue Jays may reconsider signing Randal Grichuk as a free agent, citing his strong performance against left-handed pitchers, including a .319 batting average and 152 wRC+ in 2024, and the team's poor 2025 numbers against southpaws (.229/.298/.361, 85 wRC+).
• Happy Birthday Juan Guzman (Bluebird Banter). Looks back at Juan Guzman's 1991 season with the Blue Jays, noting his 10-3 record, 2.99 ERA, 123 strikeouts in 138.2 innings, and his role in the team's ALCS and World Series runs.

[jaysblue]

Atkins seems like one of the few executives who might actually be willing to pay market value or even a slight premium for Grichuk. The organization obviously knows him well, and Atkins has negotiated with him before.

I’m sure other teams will have interest, but I doubt many would be willing to pay $9–10M AAV for a right-handed platoon bat. The Jays are one of the few teams that could afford to do that, and they’ve already shown they’re willing to pay a premium for quality depth pieces, like they did with Straw.

I could see Grichuk getting something around 2 years/$18–20M, and Toronto could easily make that kind of offer.

A Grichuk/Lukes platoon in LF would make a lot of sense, and even a Grichuk/Barger platoon could work depending on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

[Sorrow]

24 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Atkins seems like one of the few executives who might actually be willing to pay market value or even a slight premium for Grichuk. The organization obviously knows him well, and Atkins has negotiated with him before.

I’m sure other teams will have interest, but I doubt many would be willing to pay $9–10M AAV for a right-handed platoon bat. The Jays are one of the few teams that could afford to do that, and they’ve already shown they’re willing to pay a premium for quality depth pieces, like they did with Straw.

I could see Grichuk getting something around 2 years/$18–20M, and Toronto could easily make that kind of offer.

A Grichuk/Lukes platoon in LF would make a lot of sense, and even a Grichuk/Barger platoon could work depending on how the rest of the roster is constructed.

I think Grichuk makes sense but it would really only make sense as a dedicated platoon with someone like Barger who has massive question marks. I personally think we need one everyday OF like Suzuki or Arozarena and a platoon piece to work with  Barger. In an ideal world you’d sign or trade for a utility play in the mould of Spencer Steer to platoon with Barger but also cover a bunch of different positions off the bench in place of requiring 5 OFs and Santander on the roster.

[Brownie19]

There's a huge shortage of right handed hitting OFers.  There will be lots of teams that give Grichuk a look this offseason.

Grichuk is old as dirt now.  High probability he turns into a pumpkin at any point.

[jaysblue]

9 hours ago, Sorrow said:

I think Grichuk makes sense but it would really only make sense as a dedicated platoon with someone like Barger who has massive question marks. I personally think we need one everyday OF like Suzuki or Arozarena and a platoon piece to work with  Barger. In an ideal world you’d sign or trade for a utility play in the mould of Spencer Steer to platoon with Barger but also cover a bunch of different positions off the bench in place of requiring 5 OFs and Santander on the roster.

Yeah, I think you have to platoon Grichuk with either Lukes or Barger.

Ideally, though, they’d also add another everyday outfielder like Suzuki or someone similar. I don’t think you can build the outfield around multiple platoons and expect it to work consistently over 162 games. There just isn’t enough roster room to carry two separate outfield platoons unless one of those extra bats also has the versatility to play the infield.

[jaysblue]

7 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

There's a huge shortage of right handed hitting OFers.  There will be lots of teams that give Grichuk a look this offseason.

Grichuk is old as dirt now.  High probability he turns into a pumpkin at any point.

Yeah I could see Grichuk getting a two-year deal around $10-12M AAV, similar to what the Braves signed Yastrzemski for. 

There is a lot of risk with him since he's never been a high OBP guy and he's always been very streaky. Like he could hit .230-.240 with a sub .300 OBP and bad numbers overall. 

[Spanky__99]

A weak side platoon asking for that much AAV is insane to me.

[Brownie19]

22 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah I could see Grichuk getting a two-year deal around $10-12M AAV, similar to what the Braves signed Yastrzemski for. 

There is a lot of risk with him since he's never been a high OBP guy and he's always been very streaky. Like he could hit .230-.240 with a sub .300 OBP and bad numbers overall. 

2 years $24M is gross IMO.  We have too many holes to burn that kinda $$$ on Grichuk.

I think we add Lane Thomas.  He'll come a lot cheaper, he can play CF and has a 132 wRC+ v. LHP over his career.  You can probably pay him $7M or $8M on 1 year deal.  He gives us depth at CF if Bateman turns into a pumpkin and he can pair with Barger and Lukes to create a platoon.  

LF Suzuki (or Randy)/Lukes

CF Bateman/Thomas

RF Barger/Thomas/Lukes

This would also allow you to slide Suzuki (or Randy) into the DH role v. RHP from time to time.  Barger too if they need/want to take it easy on his arm.  I'm also curious Barger will be more or less comfortable at 3rd or RF coming off his injury.  I wonder if they'd play him at 3rd a bit, to let Kaz play 1st and Vlad DH (or visa versa).

 

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

2 years $24M is gross IMO.  We have too many holes to burn that kinda $$$ on Grichuk.

I think we add Lane Thomas.  He'll come a lot cheaper, he can play CF and has a 132 wRC+ v. LHP over his career.  You can probably pay him $7M or $8M on 1 year deal.  He gives us depth at CF if Bateman turns into a pumpkin and he can pair with Barger and Lukes to create a platoon.  

LF Suzuki (or Randy)/Lukes

CF Bateman/Thomas

RF Barger/Thomas/Lukes

This would also allow you to slide Suzuki (or Randy) into the DH role v. RHP from time to time.  Barger too if they need/want to take it easy on his arm.  I'm also curious Barger will be more or less comfortable at 3rd or RF coming off his injury.  I wonder if they'd play him at 3rd a bit, to let Kaz play 1st and Vlad DH (or visa versa).

 

Yeah, 2 years/$24M would be too rich for me as well. I was thinking more along the lines of 2/$18–20M for Grichuk, and that was mostly based on what Yastrzemski got last offseason. Grichuk is also coming off the better season offensively, so I’d expect his market to be at least in that range, especially it being a thin market for RHB's. 

Atkins also hasn’t exactly been afraid to spend money on depth and bench pieces when he thinks they fill a need - Straw being a pretty good example. Toronto might actually be one of the few teams willing to pay Grichuk $8–10M AAV for that role.

That said, Lane Thomas is definitely interesting. If you can get him for less, that probably makes more sense from a roster-construction standpoint. He can handle CF, crushes LHP and gives you some insurance if Bateman regresses.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

A weak side platoon asking for that much AAV is insane to me.

Agreed, but Yastrzemski got that kind of deal last offseason. 

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Agreed, but Yastrzemski got that kind of deal last offseason. 

Strong side of the platoon might be worth a few more million a year?

[Spanky__99]

4 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Agreed, but Yastrzemski got that kind of deal last offseason. 

Yaz is far better on the strong side platoon, you huffin' glue mate? Randal signed 1.2M last year, you think he gets 2/20? lmao 

C'mon man...

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Strong side of the platoon might be worth a few more million a year?

And plays + defense. IIRC...

Just checked, nah, he's below average slightly. Yet played CF, weird.

 

 

[Spanky__99]

6 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

2 years $24M is gross IMO.  We have too many holes to burn that kinda $$$ on Grichuk.

I think we add Lane Thomas.  He'll come a lot cheaper, he can play CF and has a 132 wRC+ v. LHP over his career.  You can probably pay him $7M or $8M on 1 year deal.  He gives us depth at CF if Bateman turns into a pumpkin and he can pair with Barger and Lukes to create a platoon.  

LF Suzuki (or Randy)/Lukes

CF Bateman/Thomas

RF Barger/Thomas/Lukes

This would also allow you to slide Suzuki (or Randy) into the DH role v. RHP from time to time.  Barger too if they need/want to take it easy on his arm.  I'm also curious Barger will be more or less comfortable at 3rd or RF coming off his injury.  I wonder if they'd play him at 3rd a bit, to let Kaz play 1st and Vlad DH (or visa versa).

 

The less stress on his arm would be in the OF though?

[jaysblue]

7 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Yaz is far better on the strong side platoon, you huffin' glue mate? Randal signed 1.2M last year, you think he gets 2/20? lmao 

C'mon man...

I would hope not haha, but with how thin the market is for right-handed power, I could definitely see a team overpaying a bit if they really want that type of bat.

Atkins was fine paying Straw around $6M per year to basically be a defensive fifth outfielder and the weak side of a platoon. Grichuk, coming off the season he just had, probably gets at least around $8M on a one-year deal.

If a team really wants to lock him up, 2 years/$20M gets it done. Not saying I agree he should get that. And given the Jays’ roster, they’re likely platooning one of their OF spots anyway, whether it’s with Lukes or Barger. So Toronto could easily be one of the teams willing to pay Grichuk in that $8–10M range. Atkins also hasn’t been afraid in the past to spend a little more than expected to shore up bench roles or specific positions of need. 

[max silver]

14 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

2 years $24M is gross IMO.  We have too many holes to burn that kinda $$$ on Grichuk.

I think we add Lane Thomas.  He'll come a lot cheaper, he can play CF and has a 132 wRC+ v. LHP over his career.  You can probably pay him $7M or $8M on 1 year deal.  He gives us depth at CF if Bateman turns into a pumpkin and he can pair with Barger and Lukes to create a platoon.  

LF Suzuki (or Randy)/Lukes

CF Bateman/Thomas

RF Barger/Thomas/Lukes

This would also allow you to slide Suzuki (or Randy) into the DH role v. RHP from time to time.  Barger too if they need/want to take it easy on his arm.  I'm also curious Barger will be more or less comfortable at 3rd or RF coming off his injury.  I wonder if they'd play him at 3rd a bit, to let Kaz play 1st and Vlad DH (or visa versa).

 

Thomas was -9 DRS/-7 OAA in center field last season so he's potentially not much of an option as a backup center fielder at this stage of his career.

[Brownie19]

23 minutes ago, max silver said:

Thomas was -9 DRS/-7 OAA in center field last season so he's potentially not much of an option as a backup center fielder at this stage of his career.

Yeah he's never really been great defensively out there.  You probably wouldn't want to start him for 100+ games if Bateman got hurt or just sucked, but between him and Lukes, you can probably cover CF?  His sprint speed and arm are still plus, plus.  Looks like he sucks at reads, as his jumps are poopy.

Options for a right handed hitting OFer, who punishes LHP, can cover CF and who doesn't cost $10M+ are going to be slim pickings.  They will all have warts.

 

[Brownie19]

8 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

The less stress on his arm would be in the OF though?

Maybe?  I guess that's probably true.  Not many examples to reference.

Perhaps better put is it will be interesting to see if the give him any reps at 3rd, coming off the arm injury.

[max silver]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

Maybe?  I guess that's probably true.  Not many examples to reference.

Perhaps better put is it will be interesting to see if the give him any reps at 3rd, coming off the arm injury.

I'm curious to see if Barger may receive reps in left field to shorten the overall length of the throws he needs to make. 

[max silver]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Yeah he's never really been great defensively out there.  You probably wouldn't want to start him for 100+ games if Bateman got hurt or just sucked, but between him and Lukes, you can probably cover CF?  His sprint speed and arm are still plus, plus.  Looks like he sucks at reads, as his jumps are poopy.

Options for a right handed hitting OFer, who punishes LHP, can cover CF and who doesn't cost $10M+ are going to be slim pickings.  They will all have warts.

 

I think the best chance at any kind of impact would be Luis Robert Jr., but he's a noted head case who is highly injury prone to boot. The physical tools are still plus but he's continually on the injured list which certainly limits his appeal. It's possible the guy just can't hit any more but he possesses plus plus swing speed and if he can make the adjustment towards making more solid contact there might be some potential in the stick.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I think the best chance at any kind of impact would be Luis Robert Jr., but he's a noted head case who is highly injury prone to boot. The physical tools are still plus but he's continually on the injured list which certainly limits his appeal. It's possible the guy just can't hit any more but he possesses plus plus swing speed and if he can make the adjustment towards making more solid contact there might be some potential in the stick.

Sure.  I just don't see Robert Jr signing with the Jays to be their 4th/5th OFer on a short side platoon.  Projections still have him getting $10-$12M on a 1 year deal.  I don't it's good use of resources to spend that much on a 4th/5th OFer on the short side of a platoon, nor do I think Robert Jr is going to want that.  He'll sign somewhere he can start (until he gets hurt).

I'm looking at realistic options that also fit our needs.  Lane Thomas.  He's the guy!

And Thomas's defense in CF was always acceptable until last year.  He didn't drop in sprint speed or arm strength - so maybe it was KC's positioning or some other BS that caused his poor numbers in CF. 

[max silver]

30 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Sure.  I just don't see Robert Jr signing with the Jays to be their 4th/5th OFer on a short side platoon.  Projections still have him getting $10-$12M on a 1 year deal.  I don't it's good use of resources to spend that much on a 4th/5th OFer on the short side of a platoon, nor do I think Robert Jr is going to want that.  He'll sign somewhere he can start (until he gets hurt).

I'm looking at realistic options that also fit our needs.  Lane Thomas.  He's the guy!

And Thomas's defense in CF was always acceptable until last year.  He didn't drop in sprint speed or arm strength and he was better with Cleveland than he was with KC - so maybe it was KC's positioning or some other BS that caused his poor numbers in CF. 

With Thomas I think his defensive issues were likely due to poor reaction time leading to substandard jumps more than anything else. The Statcast breakdown shows a career worst reaction time to go with a below average burst leading to well below average jumps. Given his age I'd wager these are more than likely signs of declining athleticism as his quick burst reactions have decreased despite still being able to eventually reach similar peak speeds once he's moving. 

[Brownie19]

10 minutes ago, max silver said:

With Thomas I think his defensive issues were likely due to poor reaction time leading to substandard jumps more than anything else. The Statcast breakdown shows a career worst reaction time to go with a below average burst leading to well below average jumps. Given his age I'd wager these are more than likely signs of declining athleticism as his quick burst reactions have decreased despite still being able to eventually reach similar peak speeds once he's moving. 

Maybe?  It's all just a guess at this point.  We're not going to land a 4th or 5th OFer who punishes LHP and can play CF on the cheap, who doesn't have warts.  

[max silver]

5 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Maybe?  It's all just a guess at this point.  We're not going to land a 4th or 5th OFer who punishes LHP and can play CF on the cheap, who doesn't have warts.  

I don't think there are any high end center field options available either at this point and it's more of a pick your poison scenario with who is available. With Straw you are getting a solid defender who doesn't hit much, with Thomas he will likely produce against LHP but the defense may be suspect, with Robert. Jr. he can't stay healthy and is a bit of a head case etc. Tyrone Taylor may be worth considering as he enjoyed a solid 2026 season including a 153 wRC+ against LHP but he doesn't have much of a track record of success. 

[John_Havok]

On 11/3/2026 at 9:42 AM, Brownie19 said:

Maybe?  It's all just a guess at this point.  We're not going to land a 4th or 5th OFer who punishes LHP and can play CF on the cheap, who doesn't have warts.  

Those players essentially don't exist with a plus CF defensive profile anymore. 

That's why I continue to advocate for Straw. His only wart is the offensive upside and a 4th/5th OF primary role isn't to be an offensive spark anyway. Sure it's nice. Everything else is exactly what you want in your 4th/5th OF. 

[Brownie19]

45 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Those players essentially don't exist with a plus CF defensive profile anymore. 

That's why I continue to advocate for Straw. His only wart is the offensive upside and a 4th/5th OF primary role isn't to be an offensive spark anyway. Sure it's nice. Everything else is exactly what you want in your 4th/5th OF. 

I tend to agree.  I just can't watch another Bottom 5 offense again.  We need offensive upgrades all over the place, especially given the uncertainty of what we'll get from Vlad, Barger and Taters, combined with the reality that we shouldn't expect much from Gimenez, Clement and Bateman.

Just too many limp d*ck bats man.  We gotta give up some defense for offense somewhere.  We sucked balls v. LHP last year.  If we're going to start a backup OFer v. LHP all year, it would be awesome if he could do some damage against them.

Straw is like DS - he can't hit, period, but actually hits RHP slightly better than LHP.  

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Those players essentially don't exist with a plus CF defensive profile anymore. 

That's why I continue to advocate for Straw. His only wart is the offensive upside and a 4th/5th OF primary role isn't to be an offensive spark anyway. Sure it's nice. Everything else is exactly what you want in your 4th/5th OF. 

I feel they bring him back for 6M

[jaysblue]

Yeah, as others have mentioned, it’s tough to find a power-hitting RHB who is also plus-plus defensively in CF. If the Jays want to add more punch to this lineup, they’re probably going to have to sacrifice some defense somewhere. That’s the reality.

I’m fine bringing Straw back for around $5M as a 4th/5th OF, but most of his value is defensive and he also clogs up the back end of the roster. Even if Bateman struggles early, do we really want Straw getting regular starts again?

A lot also depends on whether they add a big corner bat like Suzuki, Sato, Arozarena or Happ. If they do, then realistically you only have room for one of Lukes/Barger plus a RHB platoon partner in the other corner. Lukes as a pure 4th OF doesn’t offer enough value, and then you’re right back to having too many similar left-handed platoon bats.

And if Straw is also on the roster, you’re suddenly carrying six outfielders: Bateman, the big FA/trade addition, Barger, the RHB platoon bat, Lukes and Straw. That’s too many.

Like Laika said earlier, if Lukes were right-handed, he’d actually be a near-perfect fit for this roster.

[John_Havok]

On 11/4/2026 at 11:40 AM, Brownie19 said:

I tend to agree.  I just can't watch another Bottom 5 offense again.  We need offensive upgrades all over the place, especially given the uncertainty of what we'll get from Vlad, Barger and Taters, combined with the reality that we shouldn't expect much from Gimenez, Clement and Bateman.

Just too many limp d*ck bats man.  We gotta give up some defense for offense somewhere.  We sucked balls v. LHP last year.  If we're going to start a backup OFer v. LHP all year, it would be awesome if he could do some damage against them.

Straw is like DS - he can't hit, period, but actually hits RHP slightly better than LHP.  

I don't disagree with any points you make in general, it's just that your 4th/5th OF shouldn't really be getting enough PAs to really carry any offensive difference making anyways over the course of the season. the offensive contribution of 250 PA at 80 wRC+ vs 120 wRC+ shouldn't make or break your season. Is it a margin that would be nice to take advantage of? Sure, but that's after you take care of the bigger needs. It's far more important that your regulars are hitting as well as they should be, not the Myles Straws of the world. 

If deployed properly, you keep Straw away from the batters box as much as you can and keep him more in the pinch running/defensive replacement category rather than using him as a strict platoon. Have a bigger threat to take that pinch hitting role, then just deploy Straw to take over defensively. 

I just sorted all the RHB that play CF and hit LHP well and there's literally no realistic targets that can play CF well defensively. So, saying we need a guy who can take over FT CF if Bateman sucks ... thats not the 5th OF nayway

 

[Brownie19]

Yeah - I agree with all that.  I still think Lane Thomas is the closest fit.  His defense was "OK" until last year.  I don't want Straw or Thomas starting 100+ games though.