Toronto Blue Jays Payroll Outlook for 2027

[Matthew Creally]

Every year, only eight of MLB's 30 teams earn the luxury of being able to live fully in the present with gamedays still on the calendar by the first weekend of October. In 2026, the Toronto Blue Jays are not one of them. It was an earlier start to their offseason than anyone expected, but the work that happens in their baseball operations department at this time of year, even though most of us won't see it, will have a prolonged impact on their goal to return to the postseason. 

Of course, the biggest moves of the winter can seem insignificant by the end of the following year. In 2025, the Jays won the pennant despite a virtually non-existent showing from free agent acquisition Anthony Santander. The next offseason saw them sign Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, and Tyler Rogers in free agency, all of whom surpassed expectations but still weren't enough to prevent the team from finishing in last place. Still, this isn't a front office known for standing pat. Here are the components of the Blue Jays' financial situation that truly matter.

Where They Stand

According to RosterResource, the Blue Jays finished 2026 with a projected cash payroll of $283.96M. For luxury tax purposes, their payroll was about $30M higher. Their 2026 luxury tax payroll was the fifth-highest in the league, behind the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies, in that order.

Now to address the hopefully-smaller-than-162-games-sized elephant in the room: the expiration of the CBA. There might not be a luxury tax next year, but we aren't yet far enough in negotiations between the players and owners to know for sure. For simplicity's sake, let's say for now that the current luxury tax system will continue into next year.

In 2022, the first season of the now-expiring CBA, the first luxury tax threshold was $230M. With each passing season, that number increased by either $3M or $4M. Using a linear forecast based on the past five years, the current $244M mark would increase to $248M. There are three other thresholds beyond the first one that came in $20M increments this year, all the way up to $304M, with increasingly stiffer penalties for surpassing each one. At $314.69M, the Blue Jays' payroll checks in about $10M above the highest threshold. 

If you've heard the way some other big market owners talk about the luxury tax in recent years, the fact that the Jays are well over its fourth line might worry you. Remember how Hal Steinbrenner tried to convince people that he couldn't keep spending this much money on the Yankees? Thankfully, team president and CEO Mark Shapiro revealed in his season-ending press conference last week that the Jays' willingness to spend isn't changing, telling reporters his "expectation is we'll be in a similar area of support and resources." 

Take all this with the usual caveat that a harder cap could come into play next year and render all this outdated, but their absence from the 2026 postseason doesn't mean that payroll cuts are on the way. This team should remain one of the league's biggest spenders.

Money Coming Off the Books

The Blue Jays have more than their fair share of veterans on expiring contracts even after trading Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho at the deadline. It's not a foregone conclusion that all of them will leave. Shane Bieber has spoken about how he'd embrace the opportunity to return. Max Scherzer seems far too competitive to retire before he gets one more shot at a championship.

In the case of Jameson Taillon and Paul Sewald, who were acquired midseason, it's also important to remember the Jays didn't have to pay their entire 2026 salaries because they began the year with other teams. Still, the amount of money they spent on pending free agents would be enough to take them below the first luxury tax threshold and then some.

Player	2026 Salary Paid by TOR
George Springer	$24,166,667
Kevin Gausman	$16,112,299
Shane Bieber	$16,000,000
Jeff Hoffman	$8,614,706
Daulton Varsho	$7,588,235
Yimi García	$7,500,000
Jesús Sánchez	$6,327,273
Max Scherzer	$3,000,000
Eric Lauer	$1,270,588
Patrick Corbin	$1,000,000
Luis Urías	$733,690
Tyler Heineman	$562,500
Jameson Taillon	$433,583
Paul Sewald	$368,984
Total	$93,678,525

The total above does not include Myles Straw's $8M club option for next year. If the Blue Jays decline to exercise it, he will become a free agent as well, but they'll be hit with a $1.75M buyout. In effect, declining Straw's option will free up an additional $6.25M for the Blue Jays. It also doesn't include the $2M in incentives Max Scherzer earned on top of his $3M base salary for pitching 75 innings this past season.

Money Coming Onto the Books

8.3%. That's the portion of the Blue Jays' payroll committed to players who are not yet eligible for free agency, the second-lowest mark in baseball ahead of only the Atlanta Braves. They've already committed $238M toward their 2027 payroll, fourth-most in MLB. Still, there are guys who will need raises before spring training, most notably Louis Varland and Ernie Clement. Players entering their second year of arbitration eligibility are a year closer to free agency. Two public contract resources, Spotrac and MLB Trade Rumors, have released 2027 salary projections for this group of players. I'll be averaging those out.

Player	Status	2026 Salary Paid by TOR	2027 proj. Salary (Spotrac)	2027 proj. Salary (MLBTR)	2027 proj. Salary (average)	Diff. '27 proj. vs '26
Ernie Clement	Arb 2	$4,600,000	$7,600,000	$7,600,000	$7,600,000	$3,000,000
José Soriano	Arb 2	$852,941	$6,600,000	$5,600,000	$6,100,000	$5,247,059
Josh Smith	Arb 2	$948,529	$3,800,000	$3,700,000	$3,750,000	$2,801,471
Louis Varland	Arb 1	$821,500	$3,000,000	$3,800,000	$3,400,000	$2,578,500
Nathan Lukes	Arb 1	$808,500	$2,900,000	$2,100,000	$2,500,000	$1,691,500
Spencer Arrighetti	Arb 1	$797,300	$1,500,000	$1,900,000	$1,700,000	$902,700
Davis Schneider	Arb 1	$813,500	$1,250,000	$1,300,000	$1,275,000	$461,500
Bowden Francis	Arb 1	$809,800	$1,000,000	$1,300,000	$1,150,000	$340,200
Total		$10,452,070	$27,650,000	$27,300,000	$27,475,000	$17,022,930

The total above does not include players who are still not yet eligible for arbitration, such as Trey Yesavage and Addison Barger, but guys like that haven't accrued enough service time to get significant raises just yet. Clement is forecasted by both Spotrac and MLBTR to make the most money of anyone on the team in the arbitration pool, as he went from a utility guy to missing only nine games since the start of 2025, although GM Ross Atkins was noncommittal about him being an everyday player next season.

Another element not considered above is the increase in salary that was previously agreed upon for players with guaranteed contracts, and there are a lot of those on the way. Since luxury tax payrolls are calculated using average annual values instead of current-year salaries, the changes below will allow the Blue Jays to move further away from the threshold in 2027 despite paying some of their core guys more money.

• Dylan Cease's base salary is $8M higher in 2027 than it was in 2026, so he'll make a little over $33M next year when factoring in his signing bonus.
• The extension Andrés Giménez signed with Cleveland in 2023 was heavily backloaded; his total earnings will increase from $15.57M this past year to $23.57M per year from 2027 through 2029.
• José Berríos's earnings will increase from $18.71M to $24.71M for the final two years of his deal.
• Kazuma Okamoto only took home $7M in 2026 (with a $5M signing bonus), but that'll go up to $16M each year from 2027-29.
• Cody Ponce's contract had a similar stipulation: $5M earnings (with a $3M signing bonus) in 2026, then $11M from 2027-28.
• Tyler Rogers is also in the same boat. He made $7M plus a $5M signing bonus this past year. His salary will rise to $12M next year and in 2028 before his vesting option will determine his 2029 status.
• Finally, Alejandro Kirk's earnings will increase by $3.625M from this season for the final four years of his recent extension.

How Much Can the Blue Jays Spend?

I mentioned earlier that Roster Resource estimated the Blue Jays have already committed $238M to their 2027 cash payroll, a number that does not account for the inevitable raises that players under team control will be receiving. Their estimated luxury tax payroll, though, is below that amount thanks to all the back-loaded deals listed above. Once the arb guys' salaries are determined for next year, their cash payroll should rise to somewhere between $255-$260M, with the luxury tax payroll coming in at, ironically, roughly $238M.

Category	Dollars	Change to 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll ($314.69M)
Pending Free Agents	$93,678,525	$221,012,504
Raises for Arb-Eligible Players	$17,022,930	$238,035,434

Using our previous forecast of next year's hypothetical luxury tax boundaries, the fourth threshold would increase to $308M. If ownership is fine with exceeding that mark like they did this year, we could see the Blue Jays spend in excess of $70M this offseason via free agency/trade. In the event they try to duck below that fourth threshold to avoid a stiff competitive balance penalty, an additional $65M in payroll would likely be the most we can expect from this coming winter (again with the caveat that a salary cap could come in and screw all of this up).

What does that mean? Well, $70M is significant! The Blue Jays have already been linked to Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki who, due to the surging cost of good right-handed hitting and the weak class of position player free agents, is likely to command an AAV somewhere in the $30M-$35M range.

There's also plenty of early chatter about another free agent coming to Toronto from overseas. Ben Nicholson-Smith mentioned the team will likely be interested in 27-year-old Japanese 3B/OF Teruaki Sato. In his past three seasons in Japan's NPB, Sato has recorded a wRC+ of 202, 182, and 134, respectively.

By comparison, Kazuma Okamoto was at 210, 161, and 180 in his final three seasons in Japan, although the 210 wRC+ came in an injury-shortened platform year. Okamoto is three years older than Sato, who seems to offer a little more positional flexibility. Okamoto signed for an AAV of $15M, so it's reasonable to suggest Sato will command around $20M.

Even if the Blue Jays decide they're no longer comfortable exceeding the fourth luxury tax threshold, a world where they sign both Suzuki and Sato seems quite plausible. Their combined AAVs are unlikely to exceed $70M.

What a sudden luxury tax mandate from Rogers would do is add to the difficulty of signing three marquee free agents. There hasn't been much serious chatter in the rumour mill surrounding the Blue Jays and Tarik Skubal as of yet, but let's say the Blue Jays try their best to land Suzuki and Sato and then talk themselves into seriously pursuing Skubal. Combined, the AAVs of those two and Skubal could touch $100M. A far-fetched hypothetical world where they sign all three could result in their 2027 payroll surpassing the Yankees, who currently have $253M in cash commitments for next year, to Toronto's $238M.

The Blue Jays have an ownership group that has shown a recent willingness to blow past the luxury tax, and they're about to gain some wiggle room on that front. A salary cap would hurt them more than most teams. It looks like Rogers is willing to sustain their current financial commitment to this roster, and the fact that they could still be in play for two marquee free agents even if they walk back on that is a scenario that fans of most other teams can only dream of. If they keep their foot on the gas, Toronto's recent trend toward becoming one of the game's true financial behemoths will only accelerate.

There's no denying that some of the more expensive decisions made by the Shapiro & Atkins regime have backfired to some extent, leading to some trouble spots on the Blue Jays' payroll. It's only two years in, but the Santander deal looks like a dud. Berríos's contract isn't up until the end of the 2028 season. Giménez is the best defensive shortstop in baseball, but he probably isn't worth the $23.5M he'll be making over the next three seasons. Yariel Rodriguez is owed $8M next year and $6M in 2028 even though he's been DFA'd twice.

Still, all indications point toward them being flexible enough to make multiple significant additions to the roster over the next few months, but that'll all have to wait until the worst of these labour negotiations pass.

Author's note: Thank you to Leo Morgenstern for assisting with some of the key details in this article!

View full article