Ranking Every Blue Jays Trade Candidate From Untouchable to Out the Door

[Sam Charles]

The clock continues to tick towards the trade deadline, and the market seems to be anxiously waiting for the season’s first big trade to start a cascading response across the MLB. Perhaps either Tarik Skubal or Mason Miller will be that first big trade.

The Jays would be wise to secure some depth and controllable pieces for expiring contracts as they explore their options. For Ross Atkins and the front office, there are definitely some untouchables, but for the most part every player on the roster can be had for the right price.

Here's a look at where every notable Blue Jay stands before the deadline.

Untouchable

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
A disappointing season thus far and a long-term, big contract mean Vladdy isn’t going anywhere. As the saying goes, “sell high, buy low.” Vladdy’s return these days, even if you could find a buyer, wouldn’t be worth it.

Trade likelihood: 0%

2. Kazuma Okamoto
Toronto signed Okamoto to be more than a short-term solution, and he has come as advertised. Some whiff, but big power. Decent defender as well. His contract and production profile make him far more valuable to the Jays than he would be as a trade chip.

Trade likelihood: 0%

3. Dylan Cease
He might have even exceeded expectations thus far. Front-line starting pitching is among the hardest assets in baseball to acquire, and Cease remains a bona fide No. 1 starter. He is locked in for the next six seasons. Unless the Jays receive a crazy offer, moving him would create a hole impossible to fill.

Trade likelihood: 0%

4. Trey Yesavage
The Blue Jays view him as a potential rotation anchor for years to come. Some inconsistency this season can be corrected. Trading a high-upside rookie pitcher while the big league club is in transition doesn’t make sense.

Trade likelihood: 0%

5. Brandon Valenzuela
Good young catchers are exceptionally difficult to find. Valenzuela offers a switch-hitting bat, offensive upside, defensive growth, and years of affordable control.

Trade likelihood: Under 5%

Unlikely To Be Traded

These players aren't untouchable, but the Jays would need a compelling reason to move them.

6. Alejandro Kirk
Even a disappointing season so far doesn't justify moving Kirk.

Trade likelihood: 10%

7. Spencer Miles
Young controllable bullpen arms are exactly the type of players rebuilding or retooling teams retain. Miles could become part of Toronto's next late-inning core alongside Fisher and Fluharty.

Trade likelihood: 10%

8. Mason Fluharty
Left-handed relievers with years of control are extremely valuable. He has been a workhorse this season.

Trade likelihood: 10%

9. Braydon Fisher
Like Fluharty, Fisher is one of John Schneider’s go-to options in the pen. Reliable and durable.

Trade likelihood: 10%

10. Myles Straw
Like Giménez, Straw's contract significantly limits trade possibilities. However, his improved contributions have made him more valuable to Toronto than to many potential buyers.

Trade likelihood: 10%

11. Adam Macko
Macko has been decent when given the chance.

Trade likelihood: 10%

12. Andrés Giménez
His contract makes a trade difficult, but the defense makes him valuable. Enough for someone to bite… probably not.

Trade likelihood: 15%

13. Lenyn Sosa
The Jays have invested time into the currently injured Sosa. His age and club control fit the next competitive timeline better than many veterans.

Trade likelihood: 15%

14. Davis Schneider
Schneider still retains intrigue because of his offensive upside and positional flexibility. His Buffalo numbers have been good, but he hasn’t done much at the major league level when given the chance this season. There is a market for right-handed bats, so we will see.

Trade likelihood: 20%

15. Luis Urías
Urías does all the little things contenders appreciate. The reason he remains unlikely to move is simple: He's useful and affordable.

Trade likelihood: 20%

16. Louis Varland
Contenders want durable pitchers like Varland. That’s why the Jays picked him up in the first place. It is highly unlikely the front office moves a cost-controlled bullpen weapon unless they are blown away by an offer.

Trade likelihood: 20%

17. Ernie Clement
His value has never been higher. He's versatile, inexpensive, productive, and beloved in the clubhouse. From a value perspective, it makes more sense to keep him, but if the price is right...

Trade likelihood: 25%

18. Tyler Rogers

Rogers might be one of the most valuable relievers available, but he is under contract for two more seasons, so the deal would need to be sweet.

Trade likelihood: 30%

Legitimate Trade Candidates

These are players opposing teams are calling about.

19. George Springer
Does his upside (leadership and offensive output) supersede the remaining value of his expiring contract?

Trade likelihood: 40%

20. Max Scherzer
His no-trade protection gives him enormous control over any discussions, but he is no doubt hungry for another playoff run.

Trade likelihood: 50%

21. Daulton Varsho
If a contender believes his bat can rebound, the market could be strong.

Trade likelihood: 55%

22. Jesús Sánchez
Jays have a surplus of outfielders. As a power-hitting corner outfielder, there is a market.

Trade likelihood: 60%

23. Brendon Little
A controllable reliever can often bring back more value than fans expect.

Trade likelihood: 65%

24. Jeff Hoffman
Jays fans fixate on his blown saves and control issues, but Hoffman could generate a good return on the roster because contenders usually overpay for late-inning relief help.

Trade likelihood: 70%

25. Nathan Lukes
Every year, playoff teams search for reliable outfield depth. His value probably exceeds his long-term importance to Toronto.

Trade likelihood: 70%

26. Kevin Gausman
Veteran starters with playoff experience always carry deadline value. An expiring contract means the Jays can always try to re-sign him after the season.

Trade likelihood: 70%

27. Shane Bieber
Not a great game yesterday, but he had some good starts before that. He's experienced, accomplished, and capable of helping a postseason rotation.

Trade likelihood: 75%

Who's Missing?

Addison Barger
If healthy, Barger would be in the “unlikely to be traded” category. His age, power potential, and years of control (along with being injured) take him off the table.

José Berríos
His injury status takes him off the table as well.

Jonatan Clase
A packed outfield might put him in the mix. His speed, athleticism, and years of control make him the type of player teams generally keep through a transition period.

If the organization throws in the towel for this season, the most aggressive shopping list should include Bieber, Hoffman, Lukes, Little, Gausman, and Sánchez, with Scherzer, Varsho and Springer available depending on market conditions and player approval.

Everyone else is available only if another club makes an offer too good to refuse.

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