Why Kazuma Okamoto Is Breaking Out

[Cory Sparks]

Kazuma Okamoto is not only the lone Toronto Blue Jay with at least 10 homers this season, but he’s clear of 20 home runs, and he just ripped his first career grand slam in MLB. Let’s break down the science behind his power and how sustainable his pace is in Toronto.

Kazuma Okamoto's Background and Skill Set

Okamoto is a 30-year-old third baseman who is on pace for nearly 40 homers in his first taste of big league action. He leads the Blue Jays in a variety of slugging-related categories, and his 21 long balls are 12 clear of any other Jays player with a couple of months to go in the season. While having a 6-foot-1, 220-pound frame certainly helps with power generation, there’s plenty more to the Japanese superstar’s power surge.

Quality of Contact

Unless somebody plays in a very hitter-friendly ballpark, quality of contact is a prerequisite to putting up the stat line Okamoto has through his first 90 MLB games. In his case, everything starts with bat speed. Okamoto’s 73.2 mph average bat speed is well above the league average, slotting him in the 64th percentile among big league hitters (per Baseball Savant). 

That bat speed has helped Okamoto in a variety of categories, but essentially any stat implying that he’s piecing up a baseball is lighting up for the 30-year-old rookie. Okamoto is thriving partially thanks to a 14.3 percent barrel percentage (87th percentile), 47.5 percent hard-hit rate (82nd percentile) and 91.3 mph average exit velocity (83rd percentile). 

Exit velocity dictates a ton, and combining that with a 16.6 degree average launch angle has helped the Jays’ third baseman put on a remarkable power display in his first big league season. 

Pitch Type Tendencies

Okamoto has primarily succeeded against the four-seam fastball, logging his best batting average (.298) against any pitch that he’s seen at least 50 times. The cutter, which he’s seen 150 times, has been his kryptonite, as the Japanese corner infielder has managed just one hit over 21 plate appearances ending in a cutter, with a 46.0 percent whiff rate. Changeups and curveballs have also given him fits, as he’s hitting just .182 and .167 against each of those offspeed offerings. 

Fluctuating Bat-to-Ball Skills

While the Jays’ thrasher has had his fair share of extra-base hits (32 through 90 games, to be exact), his plate approach has its holes, to say the very least. His 8.9 percent walk rate (48th percentile) isn’t too poor, and he isn’t chasing very often, just 26.3 percent of the time (70th percentile), yet the 30-year-old has abysmal strikeout numbers. He is punching out 30.9 percent of the time (10th percentile), primarily due to a 33.6 percent whiff rate (8th percentile). The good news is that he isn’t chasing; now it’s just about hitting in-zone offspeed pitches at a higher clip. 

Is Kazuma Okamoto's Success Sustainable?

This is year one, but as opposing teams get more domestic film on Okamoto, the question becomes whether or not he can keep performances like this up. If his plate discipline were poor, it’d be one argument against him, but Okamoto isn’t venturing out of the zone a ton. As he sees more breaking balls in the zone, and attacks them, the hand-eye coordination and muscle memory should soon join an already mature approach at the dish. The bat speed, hard-hit rate and correct habits are all in place for him to be an everyday masher for years to come. 

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