Shape of the Blue Jays: Okamoto, Miles, Keys

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

Quick Hits: Farm System Check-In

• With the calendar turning to July, Baseball America updated their list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, as well as the top 30 in the Blue Jays system. Lefty pitching prospect Johnny King was added to the top 100 for the first time, something that evaluators around the industry saw as increasingly likely to happen over the past 6-12 months. He slots in at 82 on BA's list. Arjun Nimmala (39) is inside the top 40. JoJo Parker is at 56.
• BA had King, Jake Bloss, Nolan Perry, Charles McAdoo, and Danny Thompson Jr. as risers in the system. Seeing Bloss there is curious because he's gotten decimated at Triple-A this year (12.3% K rate, 7% BB rate, 4.76 HR/9), so the industry is clearly betting on the fact that his fastball velocity is into the upper 90s post-surgery. Perry was promoted to Double-A New Hampshire earlier this week and struck out seven batters while walking two in his three-inning debut on Tuesday; his meteoric rise hasn't slowed down yet. It's also unsurprising to see McAdoo here after he made his MLB debut in late May.
• The 2026 draft is fast approaching, and the Jays won't be on the clock until pick 39, so it's not as likely they'll acquire a blue-chipper like Trey Yesavage or JoJo Parker, who were each taken in the upper half of the first round. Yet, the changes that have occurred in this farm system since the hirings of people such as Marc Tramuta, who now leads their amateur scouting department, as well as Justin Lehr, their director of pitching, are hard to ignore. This prospect pool isn't yet one of the true elites in the game, but from a player development standpoint, the franchise is as strong as it has been in years.

Kazuma Okamoto

It's scary to think where the Blue Jays would be without Kazuma Okamoto, who carried their offense for large portions of June while the rest of the lineup was anemic. Okamoto hit .286 with a .913 OPS last month, and central to his success was his strong performance against breaking balls (.404 wOBA, .350 xwOBA). Gone are the days of April when it felt like he was automatically neutralized every time he saw spin. His chase, contact, and hard hit rates against breaking pitches were all better than in April and May.

Kazuma Okamoto Statcast Metrics vs Breaking Balls, 2026

Month	Chase%	Contact%	Hard Hit%	Bat Speed	Attack Angle	Swing Tilt	Early%	On Time%
March/April	25.6%	62.2%	26.3%	72.4	19°	31°	42%	52%
May	31.9%	52.8%	33.3%	73.4	18°	30°	39%	57%
June	20.3%	64.1%	40.9%	72.3	21°	33°	33%	59%

It's not that Okamoto increased his output by swinging faster at breaking balls. Instead, he's been sitting back on them more, as evidenced by his swing timing stats, while also further optimizing his swing to do what he does best in general: lift and pull. Scouts who had seen him in Japan were right about him being a pull-air guy, but looking back, it's interesting that the industry considered Okamoto to be someone with good bat-to-ball and passable game power. Swinging and missing has been the only issue in his profile, and he's easily been the most consistent power threat on the team. Forecasting players from overseas is hard! Either way, the Jays are certainly happy they got Okamoto at the price they did.

Spencer Miles

Spencer Miles drew high praise from his manager after a brilliant bulk relief outing in the Canada Day win (3.0 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 5 K, 1 BB). John Schneider said it was the best he had ever seen Miles throw. His sinker averaged 97.5 mph, a new career-best in single-game velocity, and topped out at 99.4. The extreme heat and humidity didn't hold him back, as seven of the 10 hardest pitches he's thrown on a big-league mound came yesterday. He continues to find new levels of command with the sinker as well; it was in the zone 78% of the time and had a strike rate of 83%. It was also responsible for three of his five strikeouts, and all three were looking. 

Spencer Miles Sinker Strikeouts, July 1 vs NYM

It takes a lot of confidence to try to dot pitches like this where Miles did yesterday. Take a look at those two sinkers on the bottom corner: One of those was to Francisco Alvarez (righty), and the other was to Jared Young (lefty). He back-doored it to a righty and front-doored it to a lefty for strikeouts in the same game. If Miles can throw this thing 99 mph with command like that, it might be one of the best pitches on the staff.

Sean Keys

Sean Keys fast-tracked his way to the big leagues with an unbelievable showing in Double-A and Triple-A earlier this season. He's 2 for his first 12, including an opposite-field three-run homer on Canada Day as part of a 9-3 victory. There have been five strikeouts and plenty of swing-and-miss in that small sample, but the bat tracking stats are a sight to behold. Take a look: 

Year	Bat Speed	Bat Speed 90	Swing Length	Swing Tilt	Attack Angle	Attack Direction	Intercept Point vs Batter (Y)
2026	75.1	79.2	7.4'	28°	15°	14° pull	41.9"
MLB average	71.7	77.6	7.3'	32°	10°	2° pull	30.7"

The early returns suggest he will have to sacrifice some of this bat speed and natural lift in order to make enough contact to stay competitive at this level. Still, the Jays' lineup, which has been one of the more light-hitting groups in the league for most of the season, undoubtedly needs more of what Keys brings to the table. The power is real, and it is threatening. Bat speed stabilizes very quickly, and both the average and upper-echelon bat speed for Keys are already up there with some of the game's elite hitters. His bat path is rather flat, but he has an open stance with a very exaggerated pull-air approach so far. It's tough to say whether the ingredients will come together fast enough for him to be an effective major league hitter this year, and some mechanical and stance changes might be in order if that's not the case, but this team needs more high-ceiling hitters like Keys, and the early bat tracking numbers back that up.

All stats entering July 2, 2026.

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