Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Varland's Escape, Okamoto's Bomb, Valenzuela's Winner

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

The past few days marked the beginning of a stretch in the Blue Jays' schedule that they must take advantage of in order to firmly insert themselves into the playoff picture, and they've seized the opportunity so far. The sweep of the Red Sox in Boston marked their first road sweep of the season and their first since opening weekend against the A's. The weekend at Wrigley Field began with a Cubs rout, but a huge comeback on Saturday evened the series before a Sunday rainout cut things short. Toronto is one game under .500 after a 4-1 week, with a 10-game homestand on the horizon.

Pitching

3. Spencer Miles: Nate Eaton Groundout, Bot 5, 6/17 (+10.8% WPA)

The Red Sox had a week to forget in the clutch-hitting department. They left 26 men on base and went 1-for-24 with RISP over the 3 games, and their most consequential missed opportunity came with the bases loaded and two outs in the fifth inning of Wednesday night's contest. Spencer Miles came on in relief of Mason Fluharty in what was yet another bullpen game for the Blue Jays and got Nate Eaton to chop a grounder to first. Eaton turned on the afterburners up the line, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. dove to touch the bag with the ball in his glove and end the threat.

2. Louis Varland: Michael Busch Flyout, Bot 8, 6/20 (+11.3% WPA)

After the Jays roared back with eight unanswered runs to take the lead on Saturday afternoon, Fluharty got into a world of trouble, loading the bases and failing to record an out in the eighth. You know what that means? A lot of pivotal plays for Louis Varland. Shortly after a run scored on a groundball to the infield, Michael Busch came up as the go-ahead run with two outs. Varland fell behind 2-0, but Busch popped a changeup up to the left side. Myles Straw didn't have much room near the foul line but jumped up and made the catch against the wall to get out of the inning.

1. Louis Varland: Seiya Suzuki Strikeout, Bot 8, 6/20 (+13.5% WPA)

One batter before Busch, it was the dangerous Seiya Suzuki up with men on the corners and one out. Even a sac fly would've sufficed for the Cubs here, and things got sketchy for Varland when he found himself down 3-1 in the count to the Chicago outfielder. He ran things full by inducing a foul ball and then got one of the uglier swings you'll see from Suzuki, who half-heartedly flailed at a knuckle curve in the dirt. This clutch pitching play of the week is the Jays' 20th-most pivotal on the season. Within that top 20, nine belong to Varland.

Hitting

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: RBI Single, Top 8, 6/20 (+17.4% WPA)

Alejandro Kirk brought the lineup one step closer to tying things up on Saturday before Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went up and got to a fastball above the zone and punched it into center field for a base hit. George Springer scored with a head-first slide for Toronto's second run of the inning. For all the discussion about Guerrero's lack of power this season, he continues to show up in big moments for the Jays. He's been a better hitter with men on base than with the bases empty and has a 214 wRC+ in high-leverage spots.

2. Kazuma Okamoto: 3-run HR, Top 8, 6/20 (+33.9% WPA)

Okamoto's 16 homers lead the team by a lot, but his go-ahead three-run blast on Saturday is the biggest of his career so far. He got a 2-1 fastball up in the zone and didn't miss it, launching it over the ivy and into the fifth row of Wrigley's famous left field bleachers. The Blue Jays haven't been coming back in games as frequently as they did a year ago, but this blast punctuated a brilliant response to what had been a tough series to that point. Sunday's rainout means they'll be able to ride its momentum for a little while longer into the coming week.

1. Brandon Valenzuela: RBI Double, Top 9, 6/18 (+39.1% WPA)

If the Blue Jays truly do turn their season around, this at-bat will be talked about for a while. Brandon Valenzuela worked a nine-pitch double off the monster to score an already-in-motion Ernie Clement from first, breaking a 3-3 tie in the ninth and helping the Jays clinch the sweep. Valenzuela didn't see a single pitch slower than 98.8 mph this entire at-bat, and the one he got was a 100-mph sinker in on his hands. For his career, opponents are slugging .234 off Aroldis Chapman in full counts. Valenzuela, just moments after being on the receiving end of a fortuitous gust of wind that caused a playable popup to drop foul, became one of the few to have ever done damage on a payoff from one of the best closers ever.

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