Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Guerrero's Biggest Hit of the Season

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome back to Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model. Click here to read last week's edition.

The Toronto Blue Jays took two of three from the Miami Marlins to finish off their final homestand of May, but after finally completing the journey back to .500 by taking the first two games of the weekend series in Baltimore, they painfully let one slip away on Saturday and lost a mostly uncompetitive series finale. It was still technically a winning week, but the opportunity was right in front of them to at least remain at .500 with some more distance between themselves and the bottom of the division, and they couldn't take advantage. They have a much-needed day off before a series in Atlanta against the MLB-leading Braves this week.

Pitching

3. Yariel Rodríguez: Coby Mayo GIDP, Bot 6, 5/30 (+18.6% WPA)

Yariel Rodríguez, who was responsible for the pitching staff's most clutch play of the 2025 regular season, made his first entry onto this season's list by getting a groundball in a key spot. With Toronto clinging to the slimmest of leads and the go-ahead run on base with nobody out, he completely flipped the script of the inning by inducing a 6-4-3 double play on a down-and-away slider.

2. Trey Yesavage: Jeremiah Jackson GIDP, Bot 4, 5/30 (+21.1% WPA)

It felt like Trey Yesavage was tapdancing his way out of trouble all afternoon on Saturday. I'm sure he wasn't even thrilled with the location of the pitch that freed him from the fourth inning, but Jeremiah Jackson swatted an elevated slider up the third base line. Kazuma Okamoto turned the unassisted double play to end the frame, and Yesavage would wind up only allowing a single run despite a career-high seven walks.

1. Louis Varland: Connor Norby Strikeout DP, Top 8, 5/27 (+29.4% WPA)

The Marlins were running wild in Wednesday's series finale, and what initially seemed like it would be a thorn in the sides of the Blue Jays ended up dooming a brilliant chance that Miami had to come back. With men on the corners and one out against Louis Varland, Connor Norby took a curveball at the top of the zone for strike three. Jakob Marsee took off for second, and if the plan was for that to distract the Jays with Otto Lopez on third, it was not played to perfection. Marsee was hung up following a good throw from Tyler Heineman, Lopez could not score, and the inning was over. The effects of close games are on full display here, as each of the clutch pitching plays from this week is inside the top eight on the season.

Hitting

3. Nathan Lukes: RBI Double, Bot 5, 5/27 (+18.3% WPA)

I'd be remiss not to mention the extremely long two-out walk Tyler Heineman worked off Michael Petersen to extend the inning and turn the lineup card over for Nathan Lukes, who drilled one up the alley in right-center to score Heineman and tie the game. Lukes's return was a timely shot in the arm for Toronto's lineup; he has hit for a 213 wRC+ since being activated off the IL.

2. Yohendrick Piñango: RBI Single, Bot 5, 5/25 (+18.7% WPA)

Unfortunately, this hit preceded a couple of costly Yohendrick Piñango errors in left field that allowed the Marlins to blow the doors off the series opener last Monday, but at the time, he was the only one who came through with an RBI after the Jays stacked baserunners early against Janson Junk. Down in the count, Piñango got to an inside fastball from Junk and took it right back up the middle to put his team on the board.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2-RBI Double, Top 8, 5/29 (+34.2% WPA)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s biggest hit of the season put the Blue Jays in as good a position as they'd been in since the opening weekend sweep of the A's. After Kazuma Okamoto and Charles McAdoo homered in the seventh inning to make the game close, Vlad Jr. yanked a sinker down the left field line to score both baserunners and put Toronto on top in the 8th. The Jays continue to own Yennier Cano, who has given up eight earned runs in 5.2 innings against them since the start of last year. This was Guerrero's most impactful hit by WPA since his tiebreaking solo shot in the 7th inning of a rubber match against the Cubs in August 2025.

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