Jeff Hoffman Is Shifting Toward His Slider

[Jesse Burrill]

Editor's Note: This article was written prior to yesterday's game. Hoffman took the loss on Saturday, giving up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. He threw his slider 54% of the time (13 out of 24 pitches),

Jeff Hoffman’s removal from the closer role in late April could have easily become one of the defining stories of the Blue Jays season. Instead, Louis Varland ran with the opportunity, emerging as one of the best relievers in baseball and solidifying the late-game picture for the Blue Jays.

Lost in Varland’s dominance has been Hoffman's own reinvention. Since being removed from the role, Hoffman has quietly posted a 2.45 ERA, while striking out 20 batters and walking just two. The improved results may not be a coincidence either. Over the past few weeks, Hoffman has made a significant change to how he attacks opposing hitters.

Hoffman has been one of the more perplexing pitchers in Toronto’s bullpen since arriving in Toronto. At times, he’s looked virtually unhittable, overpowering hitters with elite swing-and-miss stuff. Then on occasion, he’s been surprisingly vulnerable, particularly when it comes to the home run ball. In 2025, Hoffman allowed 15 home runs, the most of any reliever in the American League, a surprising outcome for a pitcher with such impressive underlying characteristics. 

Historically, Hoffman has relied on a three-pitch mix: a fastball that averages 97 mph with 17.4 inches of vertical break, a slider that generated a 47.3% whiff rate in 2025, and a splitter that he would use as a weapon predominantly against left-handed hitters. In 2025, as well as early on in 2026, he led with his four-seam fastball, throwing it 37.4% of the time last season, and 38.4% through his first 21 games this season.

The problem with that is that Hoffman’s fastball simply hasn’t been very effective.

Here's how his three most used pitch types performed in 2025:

• Four-seam fastball: .915 OPS, 10 HR
• Slider: .498 OPS, 3 HR
• Splitter: .642 OPS, 2 HR

Those trends have continued so far in 2026:

• Four-seam fastball: .960 OPS, 3 HR
• Slider: .725, 0 HR
• Splitter: .641, 0 HR

For Hoffman, the fastball has been the pitch that has given him the most trouble. The obvious solution would seem incredibly simple: just throw it less often.

Over his past six appearances, Hoffman has been doing exactly that.



Over his last six games, Hoffman has leaned heavily on his slider as his primary pitch, throwing it 64.9% of the time, compared to a 35.2% on the regular season. The fastball is down to just 16% usage, compared to 34.6% overall rate in 2026.

The change is an understandable one. The slider has consistently been Hoffman’s most effective pitch, and the disparity in results between it and the fastball makes the adjustment a logical one. Since making the change, he’s thrown six innings, allowed four hits, faced 20 batters, struck out 10 of them, and walked none.

On the surface, the adjustment makes perfect sense. After all, Hoffman's slider has consistently produced better results than his fastball. What's more interesting is figuring out why his fastball has struggled so much in the first place.

The surprising part is that Hoffman isn’t getting hit because he lacks stuff. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

Looking at the Stuff+ metric on FanGraphs, Hoffman’s four-seam fastball ranks eighth in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched:



It's unusual for a pitch that grades this well to produce results so poor. In other words, the problem isn’t in the quality of the pitch itself.

Usually, when that happens, location is the first issue that comes to mind, but for Hoffman, that hasn’t necessarily been the case either. Location+ has Hoffman's fastball third highest on the team. It is also the second-highest of those eight pitchers named on the previous list.



So, if that's not the case, it's time to dive a little deeper, and the problem seems to stem from when he throws his fastball.

Here's where he's thrown the pitch when he’s ahead in the count:

When he’s behind in the count:

And when the count is even:


The data suggests Hoffman may be becoming too predictable. When hitters find themselves in even counts, they’re frequently getting a fastball in the portion of the zone where four-seamers are the most vulnerable. At that point, the quality of the pitch matters less than the hitter's ability to anticipate it.

Since he’s made the change, Hoffman has posted a 31% zone rate and a 38.5% chase rate on the slider. The challenge with any slider-heavy approach is maintaining enough strike-throwing ability to keep hitters honest. If opposing hitters become too comfortable taking the pitch, Hoffman could find himself back in situations where hitters can sit on his fastball, and as we’ve seen, that doesn’t historically go well. 

His adjustment also reflects a broader league-wide trend. League-wide, fastball usage has dropped even though fastballs are being thrown harder than ever before. For the Blue Jays, this is another example of them trying to get the most out of what they have in a pitcher.

Varland remains the headline act in Toronto’s bullpen, but Hoffman’s recent adjustment may be just as important. By shifting away from a fastball that has consistently been his most vulnerable pitch and leaning into a slider that has long been his most dominant weapon, Hoffman appears to be evolving into a more complete reliever. For a Blue Jays team that has struggled offensively for most of the season, turning late leads into wins is critical, and Hoffman’s new approach could play a major role in making that happen.

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