The Power of the Blue Jays’ Jesús Sánchez

[Bob Ritchie]

Before the 2026 season, Jesús Sánchez generated a 0.181 ISO in his six-year MLB career. That ISO ranks in the 66th percentile among the 382 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that period. Accordingly, it is easy to understand why the Blue Jays would be interested in Sánchez’s power.

Despite his history, Sánchez has not delivered the expected power so far this season. After the May 5 game against Tampa, Sánchez’s ISO was 0.143, below the 0.150 2026 MLB Average. Overall, his 2026 wRC+ is 78, but his 0.325 xwOBA corresponds with a 105 wRC+. Therefore, it appears that Lady Luck has not looked favourably upon Sánchez thus far this season. Is luck the only factor that explains the ISO drop from the pre-2026 version of Sánchez? No, there are other aspects to consider, which are as follows:

• Chasing Contact
• Timing
• Sprint Speed

The best way to address Sánchez’s power loss is to lay out the data all at once. Yes, table time! In fact, three tables! 

Table 1 shows the ISO (SLG minus BA) and xISO (xSLG minus xBA) for Sánchez for 2026 and the 2023-2025 period by pitch type. Notably, the pitch mix Sánchez has faced in 2026 is like that in prior seasons, as is the pitch location (2026 versus 2025). The first observation from this table is that Sánchez’s xISO has consistently exceeded his ISO, suggesting that perhaps Lady Luck does not explain the 2026 xISO-ISO difference. Second, his 2026 xISO on fastballs and offspeed pitches lags Sánchez’s 2023-2025 numbers. This latter issue will be addressed in the Timing section.

Table 2 displays the Swing% and Chase% by attack zone. Lastly, Table 3 shows the ISO and xISO metrics by attack and game-day zones. Now to the analysis!

 

Table 1		All Pitches	Fastballs (57.0%)	Breaking (24.9%)	Offspeed (18.1%)
xISO
Sánchez	2026	0.174	0.184	0.207	0.057
Sánchez	2023-2025	0.211	0.228	0.223	0.147
MLB	2023-2025	0.167	0.188	0.148	0.133
ISO
Sánchez	2026	0.143	0.172	0.154	0.000
Sánchez	2023-2025	0.172	0.189	0.148	0.167
MLB	2023-2025	0.159	0.171	0.153	0.135

Source: Baseball Savant. Sánchez's 2026 data is as of May 5, as are the pitch mix numbers.

Table 2		Swing%				Contact%
		Heart	Shadow	Chase	Waste	Heart	Shadow	Chase	Waste
Sánchez	2026	76.9	64.9	36.0	12.8	84.3	81.5	69.4	0.0
Sánchez	2023-2025	76.6	56.1	27.6	12.1	86.3	73.5	44.6	8.6
MLB	2023-2025	75.8	57.0	27.3	10.8	86.5	73.4	45.8	7.2
MLB ISO	2023-2025					0.241	0.116	0.026	0.001

Source: Baseball Savant. Sánchez's 2026 data is as of May 5.

Table 3		In-Zone	Out-of- Zone	Heart Zone	Shadow Zone	Chase Zone
xISO
Sánchez	2026	0.216	0.102	0.179	0.223	0.007
Sánchez	2023-2025	0.291	0.044	0.373	0.133	0.030
MLB	2023-2025	0.210	0.053	0.258	0.117	0.023
ISO
Sánchez	2026	0.169	0.098	0.103	0.214	0.000
Sánchez	2023-2025	0.231	0.048	0.294	0.112	0.039
MLB	2023-2025	0.198	0.056	0.241	0.116	0.026

Source: Baseball Savant. Sánchez's 2026 data is as of May 5.

Chasing Contact 

It appears that Sánchez has focused on increasing both the rates at which he swings at pitches and makes contact this season compared to the 2023-2025 period. Overall, his 2026 Swing% and Contact% are 55.8% and 78.7%, respectively, which are higher than his 50.5% Swing% and 73.1% Contact% during the 2023-2025 period. One of the benefits of a higher contact rate is a lower K%: Sánchez’s 2026 K% is 18.7%, lower than the 2023-2025 24.9% strikeout rate. Unsurprisingly, the higher Swing% and Contact% this season have led to a lower walk rate (4.1%) than during the 2023-2025 seasons (8.4%). Furthermore, Sánchez’s average 2026 bat speed is 73.1 mph (64th percentile), which is lower than his 2025 mark of 75.9 mph (93rd percentile). A reduced bat speed is consistent with a batter who wants to increase his contact rate.

However, the higher Swing% and Contact% have resulted in lower ISO and xISO numbers. As Table 2 shows, the Swing and Contact rates have risen in the non-power zones: Shadow, Chase, and Waste. Under the Contact% numbers, note the average ISO numbers for the four zones. On average, hitters generate more power on pitches in the Heart Zone than in the Shadow, Chase, and Waste zones. From a contact perspective, the higher Contact% in the Shadow and Chase zones have contributed to Sánchez’s 2026 power decline.

To illustrate this point, I recalculated Sánchez’s 2026 ISO and xISO using his 2023-2025 swing rates and his 2026 contact rates. Also, I held the number of 2026 swings constant. In other words, based on the swing-rate differences between the 2023-2025 seasons and 2026, I transferred some swings from the Waste, the Chase, and the outer part of the Shadow Zone to the Heart Zone and the inner part of the Shadow Zone.

The results of the calculation are not surprising. If Sánchez had his 2023-2025 swing rates, combined with his 2026 contact rates, his 2026 ISO would be 0.156, instead of 0.143. His 2026 xISO would rise from 0.174 to 0.194. As a check, I performed the same calculation using the Game Day Zones (in and out of the strike zone), and the results were identical (0.156 ISO and 0.194 xISO).

In summary, part of the reason Sánchez’s ISO and xISO numbers are below his 2023-2025 marks is that he is swinging too much and making more contact in the non-power zones (Shadow, Chase, and Waste).

Timing

Concerning batting stance and positioning, Sánchez has made changes in 2026. In 2025, his stance was open, 10 degrees. This season, Sánchez is more open (14 degrees). Also, he has narrowed his stance (distance between feet) from 34.9 inches last season to 29.4 inches in 2026. Hence, in the early stage of stance and positioning changes, a batter’s timing can be affected. How do timing issues affect a batter’s power? 

One of the new Baseball Savant metrics is Ideal Attack Angle, which is a swing angle that is between 5° and 20°. Why is attack angle important? Because swings “in the ideal attack angle range are much more likely to produce line drives and fly balls, resulting in significantly higher slugging percentage and more extra-base hits.” Furthermore, a “hitter's ideal attack angle rate is the percentage of his competitive swings that fall within the 5-20° attack angle range.” Lastly, the ideal attack angle is “largely reflective of the hitter’s timing.”

How has Sánchez’s Ideal Attack Angle percentage changed from the 2023-2025 period? His average Ideal Attack Angle percentage from 2023 to 2025 was 49.1%, below MLB’s 51.0%. In 2026, his Ideal Attack Angle percentage is 46.9%. Accordingly, Sánchez’s lower Ideal Attack Angle percentage in 2026 is consistent with his lower ISO and xISO numbers.
Tying everything together, the stance and positioning changes Sánchez has adopted thus far in 2026 may have affected his timing, resulting in a lower Ideal Attack Angle percentage and, thereby, a lower ISO and xISO. Furthermore, timing issues would be consistent with lower xISO on fastballs and offspeed pitches, not to mention, less power generated on batted balls located in the Heart Zone, and the Game Day In-Zone. Phew, that is a lot of tying up! But it makes sense given the data.

Sprint Speed

The last piece of the puzzle. Extra-base hits include doubles, triples, and home runs. Given that Sánchez has averaged less than two triples per season, he is not a triples threat. Accordingly, I will focus on home runs and doubles. So far in 2026, Sánchez has hit a home run every 28.3 at-bats, the same as he did during the 2023-2025 period. The MLB average from 2023 to 2025 was one homer every 29.0 at-bats. Historically, Sánchez has hit a home run at a slightly faster pace than the MLB average. 
Therefore, Sánchez’s power decline is reflected in his doubles. His at-bats divided by doubles rates are 15.7, 19.6 and 21.5 in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The 2023-2025 MLB average is 18.8 at-bats per double. Thus far in 2026, Sánchez’s doubles rate is one double every 28.3 at-bats. 

One reason his doubles rate has declined could be his diminished foot speed. His Sprint Speed percentile rankings are 54th, 46th, 40th, and 21st in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Because foot speed and hitting with power contribute to producing doubles, Sánchez’s Sprint Speed decline could be a reason his rate of hitting doubles has dropped.

The Last Word

Before joining the Toronto Blue Jays, Sánchez was a hitter with above-average power. However, thus far this season, his power production has been below expectations. Many factors help explain Sánchez’s reduced power numbers. The primary reason is higher swing and contact rates in zones that typically produce lower power numbers (for example, the Shadow and Chase zones). Another cause is an emphasis on contact at the expense of bat speed. The other factors are timing issues caused by changes to batting stance and positioning, and a decline in foot speed.

However, despite these issues, Sánchez should be able to adjust, allowing him to be the power hitter the Blue Jays thought they were acquiring before this season began.

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