How Dylan Cease Became Unhittable

[Bryan Jaeger]

Dylan Cease has been off to an excellent start this season, posting a 1.74 ERA over 20 2/3 innings. His 36.0% strikeout rate (32 strikeouts) leads AL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. Although, it's not all pretty, as his 5.23 walks per nine innings would be his second-worst rate over his eight-year MLB tenure. Free passes have been an issue for Cease throughout his career,  3.84 per nine innings. 

Though he struggles with walks, the righty is posting a career-best strikeout percentage in his first season in Toronto. Another aspect Cease brings to the table is his durability. He has made at least 32 starts in each of the last six seasons. Healthy starting pitchers are something the Blue Jays greatly need right now. They currently have Trey Yesavage, José Berríos, Shane Bieber, and Cody Ponce on the injury list to start the season, and Ponce is likely out for the season due to an ACL injury. However, Yesavage and Berríos have made rehab starts and are close to returning. 

Cease has been considered a strikeout pitcher throughout his career, but his increased success this season is not a fluke. In the last four seasons, he was primarily a two-pitch pitcher. Although he has six pitches in his arsenal, he threw his four-seam fastball and slider over 80 percent of the time in each of those four seasons. Hitters could sit on a certain pitch, and when it came, they could hammer it.

This season, Cease has varied his pitches more often. He only throws his four-seam fastball and slider a combined 65.5 percent of the time, and his other four pitches are thrown between eight and 10 percent of the time. The inclusion of his offspeed pitches at a higher rate keeps batters off balance. Especially with his slider, changeup, knuckle curve, and sweeper sitting in the mid-to-high 80 mph range, while his fastball and sinker hit 96 to 98 mph. 

The 30-year-old throwing pitches at similar speeds is significant because they all have different movement profiles, either to the arm side or glove side. This craftiness prevents batters from sitting on a specific pitch, as in years past. Below is a breakdown from Baseball Savant. The pitch characteristic stats are all from 2026.

		Total Movement (in inches)		2025		2026
Pitch Type	Avg. MPH	Avg. Vertical Drop	Avg. Horizontal Break	Usage %	Whiff %	Usage %	Whiff %
Four-Seam FB	98	9.7	3.6 arm side	42.1	25.7	36.9	33.8
Slider	89.6	30.5	0.5 glove side	40.8	42.9	28.6	55.7
Changeup	85.2	22	9.5 arm side	1.2	46.7	9.4	77.8
Knuckle Curve	83	54.4	2.4 glove side	8.3	37.1	8.8	27.3
Sweeper	84.6	46.8	10.8 glove side	3.5	26.7	8.3	33.3
Sinker	96.8	15	12.0 arm side	3.9	12.9	8.1	7.1

The deception Cease has added by throwing more types of pitches more often shows in the increase in whiff percentage the righty has accrued this season versus last. Every pitch except his sinker and his knuckle curve has a higher whiff percentage, while his overall whiff rate has climbed from 33.4% to 41.0%. These high numbers show that his various offspeed pitches, thrown at similar speeds to one another, are working to keep hitters guessing.

Although the sample is small, with only four games under his belt, you can't discredit the fact that Cease's adjustments have made a massive difference this season. The Blue Jays should have an exceptional top trio of starting pitchers with Kevin Gausman, Cease, and, eventually, Yesavage, who all possess similar swing-and-miss pitches. Fans can expect to see a ton of strikeouts in each of these fireballers' games. 

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