Shape of the Blue Jays: Cease, Scherzer, Sánchez

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance.

Quick Hits: Offense

• The momentum from a season-opening sweep of the A's ground to a halt on Wednesday. Toronto's offense let plenty of run-scoring opportunities go by in the rubber match against the Rockies, dropping the series to finish their first homestand with a 4-2 record.
• Two things can be true about this: Yes, failing to cash in against weaker pitching during what's probably going to be the softest part of their schedule all year is not ideal. The Blue Jays scored 45 runs in three games against Colorado last August when they were in mid-season form, and nothing about their at-bats this week suggests they're in midseason form yet.
• They aren't the only ones struggling, though. The 1-5 Red Sox are averaging less than three runs a game. The 3-3 Mets just scored three runs in as many games in St. Louis. The Dodgers are coming off a series loss to the Guardians at home in which they scored just seven total runs. It's a small sample, but three true outcomes – strikeouts, walks, and home runs – are up across the league, and it may not feel like it after Wednesday's loss, but the Jays still rank top 10 in the league in K%, BB%, and wRC+. The Rockies series wasn't one to be proud of, but this is life over 162.

Dylan Cease

It's tough to ask for a much better introduction than the one Dylan Cease graced us with on Saturday (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 12 K, 2 BB). The fact that he expanded his arsenal throughout the gem has been well-documented. Another thing that stood out to me was a change in his fastball shape. It had more induced vertical break and cutting action, as well as a velocity gain of nearly 2 mph, compared to 2025. He isn't someone who has historically lost velocity as the season goes on either. The result? Four strikeouts with the four-seamer alone, despite him using the slider way more in two-strike counts.

Dylan Cease Four-Seam Fastball Specs, 2025 vs. 2026

Year	MPH	iVB	Arm-side HB	RPM
2025	97.1	18.5"	3.7"	2,550
2026	98.7	19.7"	2.3"	2,565

The reasons for this are probably weirder than you think. Fans may have noticed a quirk about Cease's delivery: Whenever he was mid-windup during that start against the Athletics, he wasn't looking at the target. In fact, he was gazing off to the third-base side right before release. It sounds crazy, but he learned during spring training that actively looking away from the plate during the early part of his motion added carry to his fastball. Whatever works!

Dylan Cease's unconventional windup. Note the direction he's facing.

Max Scherzer

Is Max Scherzer unable to quit pitching, or is pitching unable to quit him? The future Hall of Famer didn't miss a beat in his first outing despite a slightly abbreviated spring training (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 K, 1 BB). Nothing was considerably different about his release or usage compared to last year, but like Cease, he flashed a slightly improved four-seam fastball shape. It's virtually identical in terms of velocity, but it averaged 17.4" of iVB on Tuesday, compared to 16.2" last year. PitchingBot, one of two pitch quality models on FanGraphs, still considers Scherzer's fastball an above-average offering. Not many pitchers who have stayed in the show past 40 can claim their fastball declined this gracefully in the latter half of their careers.

With Cody Ponce's injury, there's a lot being asked of Scherzer at the moment. He's currently on a schedule that lines up his next three starts as follows: vs. LAD, vs. MIN, @ ARI. For better or worse, he's going to have to eat key innings this month, and in the starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, that might be a tall task. He is not a groundball pitcher, and those are two offenses full of hitters who can hit the ball hard and in the air. There are some games ahead that will be pivotal in determining how the Blue Jays respond to the adversity of having four starters on the IL, and Scherzer will be in the middle of it all.

Jesús Sánchez

Jesús Sánchez is scorching to start his Blue Jays tenure (.375/.500/.563, 1 HR, 2 K, 2 BB, 20 PA). Mitch Bannon of The Athletic put out a great piece on Thursday morning detailing the changes he has made since getting traded to Toronto. The general sentiment among the coaching staff seems to be that he got away from his true self after being flipped from Miami to Houston at the deadline last year, leading to a prolonged slump down the stretch. The Blue Jays are trying to tell Sanchez to lean into his identity and play to his strengths, rather than cover his weaknesses.

Jesús Sánchez bat speed distribution, 2023-2026 (Statcast).

What's interesting about the bat speed distribution chart above, though, is that Sánchez, known for his thunderous swing, has been more reserved so far in 2026. The top-end bat speed is still there, but he's choosing to swing slower in way more spots. Breaking it down by count reveals that he's swinging way slower on secondary pitches with two strikes, an early indication that he's developing a more polished approach from behind in the count. Considering he has only struck out twice, it's working.

The fact that Sánchez got a start against southpaw Kyle Freeland on Wednesday (while Addison Barger did not), despite Sánchez's career 42 wRC+ vs. LHP, speaks to the trust the Jays have in the newest addition to their offense. It's not exactly unwarranted either. Barger has chased 47.5% of the pitches he has seen outside the zone so far, an astronomical rate that has contributed to his 0-for-13 start. After being asked why he kept Barger out of the lineup Tuesday against a righty, manager John Schneider simply said "Slow down, Addie," according to Toronto's play-by-play team on Sportsnet. Until he does, it seems Sánchez will get every opportunity to keep building.

All visuals and figures courtesy of Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, effective April 2, 2026.

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