Blue Jays Clutch Plays: Opening Weekend

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome to the inaugural edition of Blue Jays Clutch Plays, a recurring post that highlights the six most pivotal plays (three pitching, three hitting) from the past week of Blue Jays baseball, according to MLB's win probability model.

Last year's Blue Jays taught us that a slow start to the season isn't the end of the world. Then again, it doesn't hurt to get ahead. Headlined by consecutive nail-biter walk-off wins and punctuated with a record-setting day for the pitching staff on Sunday, the Jays completed a sweep of the Athletics to begin the year 3-0 for the first time since 1996. Their pitchers struck out 50 batters over the course of the series, a modern-era record to start a season. Not a bad way to kick off their 50th anniversary!

Pitching

3. Louis Varland: Jacob Wilson GIDP, Top 7, 3/27 (+17.5% wPA)

Varland picked up right where he left off in 2025 by pitching in a high-leverage spot. With the tying and go-ahead runs on and nobody out, he struck out Brent Rooker before inducing a perfectly-timed groundball from Jacob Wilson, hit right at second baseman Ernie Clement. The rest was academic.

2. Braydon Fisher: Jacob Wilson GIDP, Top 6, 3/28 (+17.7% wPA)

It was a tough weekend for Wilson. Known for his contact skills, he struck out five times in 13 plate appearances, and even when he did put bat on ball, it didn't always end well. After a hard-luck start to the inning that saw the A's finally score on Dylan Cease after his masterful debut, Braydon Fisher came on and got another grounder from the not-Oakland shortstop. It wasn't the easiest double play in the world, but Toronto's dazzling middle infield combination of Giménez and Clement made it happen.

1. Louis Varland: Soderstrom GIDP Top 10 3/28 (+24.1% wPA)

It's unfortunate for Varland that Brent Rooker drove in a run immediately after this because as it happened, it looked like the table would be set for the Jays to win it in the 10th. Ultimately, they only had to wait one more inning. After walking the white-hot Shea Langeliers to take away the open base with the ghost runner on in extra innings, Varland got a tailor-made groundball from Soderstrom for an easy 4-6-3.

Hitting

3. Ernie Clement: Walk-off single, Bot 11, 3/28 (+29.0% wPA)

The final act of Saturday afternoon's thrilling comeback victory came courtesy of Clement, who worked the count full against Luis Medina before turning on a 99-mph fastball and drilling it into the left-center gap. Pinch-runner Nathan Lukes scored the winning run from second with ease to cap off an eventful game that once saw the Jays trailing 6-2 heading to the bottom of the seventh before flipping the script to win 8-7 in extras.

2. Andrés Giménez: Walk-off single, Bot 9, 3/27 (+36.6% wPA)

Andrés Giménez was one of many unlikely heroes in last year's playoff run after a lost season at the plate. To say he started off on the right foot in 2026 would be an understatement, as the opening night theatrics would not have come close to happening without him; he drove in all three runs during the 3-2 win. What began as a bases-empty, two-out scenario turned into a masterclass by the bottom of the order: Kazuma Okamoto singled to right, Ernie Clement chopped a double over third baseman Max Muncy's head, and then Giménez finished the job with a hard grounder back up the middle. Maybe being a world champion does make you feel different!

1. Alejandro Kirk: Solo HR, Bot 9, 3/28 (+46.7% wPA)

The Blue Jays' first home run of the season could not have come at a better time. Mere seconds after Okamoto let an arguably challengeable pitch go by for strike three, Kirk shocked the Rogers Centre with a no-doubter to left field off A's reliever Michael Kelly to tie it at six with one out in the bottom of the ninth. Toronto's catcher, known for his flat swing, normally likes the ball high in the zone, but it was a sweeper middle-down that he deposited into the seats above the home bullpen. Fun fact: For how often the Jays found a way to win in 2025, this would've been their sixth-most clutch play of the last regular season. It was the most dramatic of swings in a game that saw a whopping six plays that caused at least a 20% swing in win probability.

Up next for the Blue Jays: A home series against the Rockies to start the week before three games in Chicago for the White Sox home opener on the weekend.

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