Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Position Analysis: First Base

[Sam Charles]

Jays Centre is taking a close look at every position on the Toronto Blue Jays heading into the 2026 season. Check out prior entries in the series here:

• Catcher

Toronto Blue Jays First Basemen at a Glance

• Starter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Backup: Kazuma Okamoto, Ernie Clement
• Depth: Anthony Santander (IL), Eloy Jiménez (if he makes the team)
• Prospects: Damiano Palmegiani, Charles McAdoo, Jackson Hornung, Peyton Williams

 

• Jays 1B fWAR in 2025: 8th out of 30
• Jays 1B FGDC Projection for 2026: 1st out of 30

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is both elite and remarkably durable. Considering the 14‑year, $500 million extension he signed last season, he is Toronto's first baseman until he or the team decides he can’t handle the role anymore. Based on his track record, that scenario isn’t in the cards any time soon. Instead, the Jays only need to address the question of who looks after first when he starts as the DH or gets injured.

Guerrero is among the most durable and high-volume first basemen in Major League Baseball. He consistently ranks near the top of the league in games played and plate appearances at the position. Last season, he started 133 of his 156 games at first. In three other games, he played first after either starting as the DH or entering as a pinch-hitter.

There isn’t a single more important position player on the Blue Jays' roster than Guerrero. Since 2021, he has piled up more innings at first than any AL peer, and he’s coming off a monstrous 2025 postseason that powered Toronto to the World Series. He’s also under team control through 2039, making contingency planning more about short‑term risk management than succession.

I haven’t found an Opening Day projection that doesn’t have Guerrero as the everyday first baseman. That said, as is now customary in professional sports, especially for superstars, he will face some load management that will necessitate that Kazuma Okamoto and Ernie Clement fill in when required. The depth charts on FanGraphs and CBS paint a similar picture, with Vlad as the primary and Okamoto and Clement among the first backups. Sports Illustrated’s positional ranking has this group at the top when it comes to each team's first base setup across MLB.

No team can replace a player like Vladdy, but if he is starting at DH, resting or injured, the Jays will look to find the sweet spot of defensive talent, contact hitting and run-production to fill his shoes at first.

Plan A (for Non‑Vlad Days): Kazuma Okamoto

When the team signed Okamoto, management was very open about what they perceived as an opportunity to use his defensive versatility to their advantage. That includes his playing left field and first base.

Okamoto brings a resume that suggests, based on his time with the Yomiuri Giants of NPB, he is a capable first baseman. In fact, he won the Japanese version of a Gold Glove in 2024 at the position.

His hitting in his first four spring training games before he left for the WBC bodes well as he transitions to the MLB. He hit a home run and two doubles in nine at-bats. Okamoto will hopefully complement the contact-first orientation of the Jays’ offensive philosophy.

From a lineup geometry perspective, moving Okamoto to first would allow Addison Barger to play third and open up some playing time for one of the outfielders (Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Eloy Jiménez or Davis Schneider) off the bench.

For the 10 or 15 games that Guerrero won’t start at first, Okamoto would be the cleanest fill-in with minimal disruption to the lineup and defense.

Plan B: The Utility Safety Net

Heading into the 2025 season, Clement had only played first in the majors five times while playing for the Guardians. Last season, he played first for 15 games, though he only started six of them.

Clement has become Toronto’s utility glue. He’s projected to start at second base this year, but the coaching staff trusts him everywhere, including first. He won’t replicate Guerrero’s power, but his bat‑to‑ball skills, reliable hands and baseball IQ can stabilize the right side of the defence when the priority is run prevention and clean innings.

Clement at first allows Okamoto to focus on third while Barger can stick to the outfield. It does mean that the Jays would need a fill-in at second, however. That might result in a negative offensive blip, if Leo Jiménez is the answer, or a defensive downgrade, if Davis Schneider is the one who slides into second.

Plan C and Beyond: Not So Clear

There has not been a lot of talk about who on the major league roster could fill the first base position. Once healthy, Anthony Santander could potentially fill in at first. His timeline, however, is a return in August or September.

According to MLB.com's Keegan Matheson, Eloy Jiménez has been spending significant time in spring training working out at first base. That might be an indication that if he makes the team, he’ll get an opportunity to back up Vladdy.

Further down the depth chart, and one has to really scan down, there are a few more names that have the potential to make the leap to the majors.

Charles McAdoo is projected to be ready by 2027 and possibly earlier. He is a third baseman/first baseman and Jays Centre's 14th-ranked prospect, as of our latest update.

More likely would be Damiano Palmegiani, whose calling card is power. He’s been developed as a corner infielder with some work in the outfield. He could potentially get the call if he has a strong start in Buffalo. Baseball America highlights both his power and approach but flags his swing and miss vs. spin and defensive limitations.

FanGraphs lists several other minor leaguers as options at first, including Jackson Hornung and Peyton Williams (who both reached Double A in 2025) and Carter Cunningham and Brennan Orf (a pair of left-handed-hitting first basemen in High A). At this point in their careers, none of these players appear ready to make a big jump to the major league level.

If Guerrero Misses Two Weeks… Six Weeks… or Two Months

• Daily plan: Okamoto starts approximately 70–80% at 1B; Clement picks up the rest in platoon matchups; Barger locks 3B most days.
• Net effect: Offense dips from MVP-calibre to solid but variable; defense improves mildly on some days (Clement); run prevention keeps the floor high.
• Longer-term structural move (4-6 weeks): Promote a corner power bat (Palmegiani) or sign a short‑term veteran to soak up DH/1B at‑bats so Okamoto isn’t overexposed to position hopping.

The front office has shown an appetite for in‑season corner bat adds in the past (like Ty France last season) to cover first base innings when Guerrero is pencilled in as DH.

As long as Guerrero stays healthy, the Jays have one of the best in baseball at first base. Plans A and B address load management with complementary pieces to support short-term coverage. The lack of organizational depth is only a concern if Guerrero is injured and out of the lineup for an extended period.

The Jays have intentionally prioritized MLB‑level flexibility over pure first base depth at Triple A and throughout the minors. It’s as much a bet on Guerrero’s availability and durability as it is on Okamoto’s adaptability.

For the Jays, first base is elite so long as Vladdy is in the lineup. The position is adequately insulated for any short-term challenges. Any injury beyond a few weeks, though, would likely push the front office to explore a trade to ensure run production doesn’t sag in a tough division.

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