How Will the 2026 Blue Jays Offense Compare to the 2025 Version?

[Bryan Jaeger]

The Toronto Blue Jays in 2025 had a magical run that came within two outs of ending a 32-year World Series drought. The offense finished the season in the top five in most offensive categories because it had to rely more on a contact approach at the plate.

The team hit more home runs than in 2024 (156), but the 191 long balls last season fell short of expectations as the Blue Jays finished tied for 11th. Key members who were expected to be leaned on heavily in the power department struggled on the field and/or battled injuries all season long.

Anthony Santander signed with the Blue Jays last offseason after hitting 44 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles. However, the same success hasn't been shown in Toronto. He struggled at the plate at the beginning of the season and suffered a shoulder subluxation in May, which kept him out until the final week of the regular season. Fans and the organization were expecting far more than the six home runs, 16 runs scored, and 18 driven in from Santander's bat, but he wasn't the only heavy-hitter to struggle staying on the field.

Daulton Varsho was on pace to surpass his career-best statistics if it wasn't for his injury-plagued season. He started the season on the injury list, recovering from a shoulder injury. He returned towards the end of April, but a grade 2 hamstring injury forced him to miss all of June and July. Thanks to boosting his barrel percentage from 6.2 percent in 2024 to 15.9 percent in '25, Varsho hit 20 home runs in 271 plate appearances.

That home run total was seven fewer than his career high in 2022; however, the center fielder had 321 more plate appearances that season. He also had 19 fewer RBIs in 2025 (55) than in '22, when he hit 74. We could have witnessed an MVP-caliber season out of the 29-year-old had he stayed healthy throughout the season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was also not in normal heavy-hitter form. With the question marks around his future looming over the superstar first baseman, he struggled out of the gates, not hitting his first home run until his 19th game. His average exit velocity dropped from 93.8 mph in 2024 to 92 mph in '25. Guerrero Jr.'s hard-hit percentage also dropped in this time span from 54.9 percent to 50.7 percent. The Blue Jays' first baseman finished the season with 23 home runs and 84 runs driven in over 680 plate appearances. The team will need a stronger season from him in the upcoming season.

Amid struggles from likely power sources, the Blue Jays received a power surge from an unlikely player. George Springer emerged as the heavy-hitter in the batting order, something he hasn't been referred to as since 2019 while with the Houston Astros. Last season, the 36-year-old set career-highs in barrel percentage (16.1 percent), exit velocity (90 mph), and hard-hit percentage (47.6 percent). These impressive metrics helped the veteran hit 31 home runs and drive in 84 runs. Both are his highest totals since 2019.

Despite inconsistent power production, the Blue Jays won the AL East and advanced to a deep postseason run. This success was boosted by inexperienced names like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Ernie Clement, who performed exceptionally in more meaningful roles than expected. Last season was Lukes first full season in the big leagues, despite being 31. He posted a 103 wRC+ and a .730 OPS over 438 plate appearances. It was a steady performance the Blue Jays needed, as he was usually at the top of the batting order.

Barger has had a roller-coaster two-year MLB career. He was another much-needed power bat that broke out last season. He hit 21 home runs and posted a 107 wRC+ over 502 plate appearances. If he's going to continue being a power source, he needs to improve on his 22.9 flyball percentage.

Clement was a consistent contact hitter all season long. He posted a .296 BABIP, just below average, but his excellence came in the postseason. The utility infielder set a single postseason record for hits (30). Clement will be called upon to return his contact success while hitting at the bottom of the batting order.

How Will This Year's Offense Compare to Last Year's?

After the magical 2025 season ended, fans were excited for an offseason of additions that could get the team back to the World Series. However, those big additions fizzled away. The Blue Jays were once again outbid for the top free-agent bat, this time Kyle Tucker. The two-time World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers swooped in late to add the star outfielder. After Tucker signed, any chance of a reunion with Bo Bichette was quickly snuffed away by the New York Mets.

The Blue Jays did add Kazuma Okamoto from Japan, but there's no guarantee he will adapt to American pitching quickly. He will be under pressure to fill Bichette's offensive void. Okamoto has the skills to hit 20 or more home runs that Bichette would likely have contributed. The Japanese player hit 15 long balls last season but missed half the season with injuries. All eyes will be on him throughout the season.

Toronto's need for Okamoto's power has increased significantly with the latest news about Santander. The organization hoped a full offseason to get healthy would help the switch-hitter regain his power swing. However, he will now require left labral surgery, which will hold him out for five to six months. It's a devastating blow to the 2026 plans, especially with striking out on Tucker.

The Blue Jays will likely turn to Lukes to fill the left field hole that has opened up with Santander's injury. Lukes may even play in a platoon role with Davis Schneider batting against southpaws. Schneider didn't have a clear role before Santander's injury. However, now a platoon role makes sense for the 27-year-old. Schneider struggled against lefties last season, posting a .708 OPS compared to a .915 OPS against right-handers. Despite the low OPS while facing left-handers, he was able to be productive offensively, posting a 106 wRC+.

While the Blue Jays have a band-aid to patch up losing Santander for the first half of the season, it's also highly unlikely that Springer can repeat his monstrous power display. He's 36 now, although the full transition to the DH role has aided in keeping Springer healthy.

Even when he hit 39 homers in 2019, he faced a slight regression in barrel and hard-hit percentages the next season. However, the next season was the shortened 2020 campaign. Fans need to prepare themselves for Springer to still be productive at the top of the lineup, but there will likely be a slight regression in the power department. He could still hit in the mid-20s for home runs, which the Blue Jays will need since they are thin on heavy bats.

The upcoming season will be where Guerrero Jr. will need to flex his muscles as the franchise player. The Blue Jays will need him to return to a mid-30 home run total. Just looking at the lineup on paper, he's the only name that strikes fear in opposing teams to hit the long ball. Ultimately, health is the Blue Jays' primary concern. They can't afford another injury to a key player, or the team will have to rely on inexperienced players again, as in 2025. There's still a possibility for the Blue Jays to add a free agency bat, but the top-tier players are already on a team.

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