How Will the 2026 Blue Jays Offense Compare to the 2025 Version?

The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays went on a magical run that came within two outs of ending a 32-year World Series drought. The offense finished the season in the top five in most offensive categories while relying on a contact-heavy approach at the plate.

The Jays hit more home runs than in 2024 (156), but their 191 long balls last season fell short of expectations, as they finished tied for 11th. Key hitters who were expected to be leaned on heavily in the power department struggled on the field and/or battled injuries all season long.

Anthony Santander signed with the Blue Jays last offseason after hitting 44 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles in 2024. However, didn't have the same success in Toronto. He struggled at the plate at the beginning of the season and suffered a shoulder subluxation in May, which kept him out until the final week of the regular season. Fans and the organization were expecting far more than six home runs, 16 runs scored, and 18 driven in from Santander's bat, but he wasn't the only heavy-hitter to struggle staying on the field.

Daulton Varsho was on pace to surpass his career-best statistics in many categories if it wasn't for his injury-plagued season. He started the year on the injury list, recovering from a shoulder injury. He returned towards the end of April, but a grade 2 hamstring strain forced him to miss all of June and July. Thanks to boosting his barrel percentage from 6.2 percent in 2024 to 15.9 percent in '25, Varsho hit 20 home runs in 271 plate appearances.

That home run total was seven fewer than his career high in 2022; however, the center fielder had 321 fewer plate appearances this past season. He also had 19 fewer RBIs in 2025 (55) than in '22, when he hit 74. We could have witnessed an All-Star-caliber season out of the 29-year-old had he stayed healthy throughout the season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was also not in normal heavy-hitter form all year. With the question marks about his future looming over the superstar first baseman – and then the pressure of his massive contract – he wasn't his usual self out of the gate, not hitting his first home run until his 19th game. Overall, his average exit velocity dropped from 93.8 mph in 2024 to 92 mph in '25. Guerrero's hard-hit percentage also dropped from 54.9 percent to 50.7 percent. The Blue Jays' first baseman finished the season with 23 home runs and 84 runs driven in over 680 plate appearances. With how dominant he was in the playoffs, it can be easy to forget that his 2025 regular season was a step back from his 2024. The team will hope for a stronger regular season performance from him in 2026.

Amid struggles from likely power sources, the Blue Jays received a power surge from an unlikely player. George Springer emerged as the heavy-hitter in the batting order, something he hasn't been referred to as since 2019 while with the Houston Astros. Last season, the 36-year-old set career-highs in barrel percentage (16.1 percent), average exit velocity (89.9 mph), and hard-hit percentage (47.6 percent). These impressive metrics helped the veteran hit 32 home runs and drive in 84 runs. Both were his highest totals since 2019.

Despite inconsistent power production, the Blue Jays won the AL East and advanced to a deep postseason run. This success was boosted by inexperienced names like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Ernie Clement, who performed exceptionally in more meaningful roles than expected. Last season was Lukes's first full season in the big leagues, despite being 31. He posted a 103 wRC+ and a .730 OPS over 438 plate appearances. It was a steady performance the Blue Jays needed, as he was often hitting toward the top of the batting order.

Barger has had a roller-coaster two-year MLB career. He was another much-needed power bat that broke out last season. He hit 21 home runs and posted a 107 wRC+ over 502 plate appearances. If he's going to continue being a power source, he needs to improve on his 22.9 flyball percentage (per Baseball Savant).

Clement was a consistent contact hitter all season long. He posted a .296 BABIP, just below league average, but his excellence came in the postseason. The utility infielder set a single postseason record for hits (30). Clement will be called upon to maintain his contact success while hitting at the bottom of the batting order.

How Will This Year's Offense Compare to Last Year's?

After the magical 2025 season ended, fans were excited for an offseason of additions that could get the team back to the World Series. There's no doubt the pitching staff is better after several notable additions. However, the Blue Jays were once again outbid for the top free-agent bat, this time Kyle Tucker. The two-time World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers swooped in late to sign the star outfielder. After Tucker signed, any chance of a reunion with Bo Bichette was quickly snuffed away by the New York Mets.

The Blue Jays did add Kazuma Okamoto from Japan, but there's no guarantee he will adapt to MLB pitching quickly. He will be under pressure to fill the offensive void left by Bichette.

Okamoto has the skills to hit the 20 home runs and record the 80 RBIs that Bichette would likely have contributed. The Japanese star hit 15 long balls last season but missed half the year with injuries. He hit 30 or more home runs in NPB every year from 2018 to 2023. All eyes will be on him throughout the season.

Toronto's need for Okamoto's power has increased significantly with the latest news about Santander. The organization hoped a full offseason to get healthy would help the switch-hitter regain his power swing. However, he will now require left labral surgery, which will hold him out for five to six months. It's a devastating blow to the 2026 plans, especially with the Jays striking out on Tucker.

The Blue Jays will likely turn to Lukes to take many of the left field opportunities that have opened up with Santander's injury. He will presumably play in a platoon with Davis Schneider, who will start against southpaws. Schneider didn't have a clear role before Santander's injury. However, now a platoon role makes sense for the 27-year-old. The righty-batting Schneider was not as effective against lefties last season, posting a .708 OPS compared to a .915 OPS against right-handers. That said, he was still able to produce offensively without the platoon advantage; his 106 wRC+ was six percent better than league average.

While the Blue Jays have a band-aid they can use to patch up the loss of Santander for at least the first half of the season, it's also highly unlikely that Springer can repeat his monstrous power display. He's 36 now and dealt with several injuries in 2025. Hopefully, more playing time in the DH role (and less in the outfield) will help keep him healthy.

Even when he hit 39 homers in 2019, Springer faced a slight regression in barrel and hard-hit percentages the following season. However, that season was the shortened 2020 campaign. Fans need to prepare themselves for Springer to still be productive at the top of the lineup, but there will likely be at least a slight regression in the power department. He could still finish in the mid-20s for home runs, which the Blue Jays will need since they are thin on heavy bats.

The upcoming season will be when Guerrero needs to flex his muscles as the franchise player. The Blue Jays are counting on him to return to a mid-30s home run total. Just looking at the lineup on paper, he's the only name that will truly strike fear in opposing teams when it comes to hitting the long ball.

Ultimately, health is the Blue Jays' primary concern right now. They can't afford another injury to a key player, or the offense will have to rely on inexperienced players again, as in 2025. That can work, as last proved, but it's risky. And while there's still a possibility the Blue Jays could add a bat, all the top-tier free agents are already on other teams.