The AL East Is Shaping Up To Be Even More Competitive in 2026

[Sam Charles]

American League East teams have already delivered a busy and consequential winter so far. Baltimore has overhauled its lineup and bullpen, Boston has reconfigured its rotation and will have a new look infield, Tampa Bay has done what it normally does by cycling assets and uncovering value in the market, and New York has largely focused on retaining its composition and strengthening its depth. The Jays have been building upon last season’s success by moving aggressively on pitching while searching for at least one bat. Here’s a detailed, team-by-team look at all the division's moves and an analysis of what it all means for the Jays.

Baltimore Orioles

After their forgettable 75-87 last-place finish in 2025, the Orioles' front office has been busy this offseason. Baltimore has added big bats and late‑inning muscle, and reshuffled its rotation. The team added some big names relatively early in the offseason. Pete Alonso signed a five-year deal, adding right‑handed power to the middle of a retooled order. He’ll be joined by Taylor Ward, who was traded from the Angels. Ward is an above-average bat who tends to punish lefties.

Baltimore traded long-time center fielder Cedric Mullins to the Mets at the deadline last summer. Ward should provide more power than Mullins, but defensively, the Orioles will suffer, with Ward in a corner and Colton Cowser presumably the everyday center fielder.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Orioles re-signed Zach Eflin to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. He had an injury-shortened season last year and is looking to bounce back. The Orioles also acquired Shane Baz from the Rays. His addition offsets the loss of Grayson Rodriguez, who was traded to the Angels in the deal for Ward.

As for the bullpen, the Orioles signed a two-year deal with Ryan Helsley. Helsely is a former All‑Star closer with elite stuff seeking a rebound. Last year, he started the season with the Cardinals and was good (3.00 ERA with 21 saves) until he was traded to the Mets, with whom he posted a 7.20 ERA. The bullpen will be further improved by the return of Andrew Kittredge. He returns to Baltimore after a brief stint post-deadline with the Cubs.

For the Orioles, the choices were to slowly rebuild or act decisively this offseason, and it looks like they decided to bypass the long-term rebuild. It’s a decisive pivot from 2025’s hiccup and squarely positions Baltimore to rejoin the division race. If there's one thing left for the O's to do, it's to add a no‑doubt ace to lead that rotation.

Boston Red Sox

Two early moves this offseason indicated the Red Sox were not in the mood to wait things out either. Boston acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and further stabilized its rotation by trading for Johan Oviedo of the Pirates. The Red Sox's rotation is anchored by Garrett Crochet, and any additions only improved what was already a relative strength. The Red Sox finished third in the AL East with a record of 89-73 in 2025, and their starters ranked sixth in the AL with a 3.92 ERA.

In a somewhat surprising move, the Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from the Cardinals. It was surprising in that the team already had a capable starter at the position in injury-prone Triston Casas. Casas is under club control until 2029. In the trade, Boston shipped starters Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo (their No. 23 prospect in MLB Pipeline rankings), and Blake Aita to St. Louis. According to reports, Contreras will be the team’s primary first baseman.

Boston’s front office has prioritized rotation competence and multi‑positional roster strength so far, and it looks like their 2026 is shaping up for a slight improvement over last season.

The team also appears to be searching for at least one more impact bat. That could be a return of Alex Bregman, whose fate is still undecided, or someone else. There was speculation that they were considering Bo Bichette, but those rumours seem to have cooled as of late.

Yet, all things considered, the Red Sox are already in a pretty good spot. Indeed, their outfield is so overflowing with talent that there have been several rumblings that the team is considering offers for Jarren Duran.

Tampa Bay Rays

Every season, the dark horse in the AL East is the Tampa Bay Rays. Their 2025 season was a disappointment. Apart from playing at the Yankees’ spring training complex due to the ongoing restoration of Tropicana Field, the team struggled to a fourth-place finish in the division with a 77-85 record.

In 2026, the team will return to Tropicana Field with something of a new-look roster. The Rays have kept true to form this offseason through their regular roster churn, a major trade and a low‑cost outfield addition.

The addition of Mullins, on a one-year deal, provides a value play for speed, defense, and a bit of left-handed pop to complement their platoon structure. Not long after that addition, the Rays traded infielder Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and reliever Mason Montgomery to the Pirates. In that same multi-team trade, the Rays acquired outfielder Jacob Melton and pitcher Anderson Brito from the Astros.

Meanwhile, veteran left-hander Steven Matz signed a two-year deal with Tampa. Known for his control and versatility, Matz joins his fifth MLB team. The Rays added a minor league pitcher, Tommy McCollum, through a trade with the Phillies for Yoniel Curet. They also claimed reliever Osvaldo Bido off waivers from the Braves.

Although they traded away Baz, the Rays got quite the trove of players in return. Heading to Florida are catcher Caden Bodine, outfielder Slater de Brun, pitcher Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn and a draft pick.

Tampa Bay continues its commitment to keeping costs down while building flexibility through position platooning and short-term contracts. Whether or not they can find success seems to be a bit of a coin flip every season. With that said, they always play the Jays tough.

New York Yankees

The Yankees finished with the same record as the Jays last season at 94-68. The Jays won the tiebreaker thanks to a better head-to-head record in the regular season.

Things have been quiet for the Yankees this offseason, especially compared to last season. One year ago, New York had added Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. This time around, the team seems to be focused more on maintenance. So far, their moves have stabilized depth, left flexibility and seemed to point to a willingness to wait out the market.

Among the returning players are Trent Grisham, who accepted a qualifying offer. Ryan Yarbrough, Amed Rosario and Paul Blackburn, all signed one-year deals. Together, this group of players offers outfield depth, swingman innings and some flexibility in the infield.

The Yankee bullpen will look quite different in 2026 after Williams and Luke Weaver signed with the Mets. Also leaving the organization are veteran right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. (signed with the Athletics) and Ian Hamilton (signed with the Braves).

The team has been content to focus on re‑signings and lower‑leverage roster hedges so far this offseason to complement what it has rather than taking a wholesale upheaval approach. Big news could be on the horizon, however, as New York has been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Bichette and Kyle Tucker.

*****

Every team, with the exception of the Rays, seems to be chasing the Blue Jays this offseason. Toronto has made a big splash so far, signing Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers, as well as trading for Chase Lee. Now, with the days dwindling before pitchers and catchers report, every team in the division is still seeking to add an impact bat and strengthen its bullpen.

If the Jays land someone like Tucker, Bichette or Bregman then their run prevention and run creation balance would become division‑leading. The rotation, as currently constructed, with Cease as the top dog, suggests the best aggregate strikeout staff in the division. Pairing that with elite run scoring and defense would make Toronto the AL East favorite.

While it is way too early to accurately project the final 2026 American League East, since there are a lot of potential additions and subtractions that can occur over the next several weeks, here is my crystal ball prediction for the upcoming season:

1. Toronto Blue Jays: 96-66
2. Baltimore Orioles: 92-70
3. Boston Red Sox: 88-74
4. New York Yankees: 86-76
5. Tampa Bay Rays: 82-80

Obviously, injuries, late‑winter signings and deadline moves will impact what actually comes to fruition in 2026.

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[Terry Mesmer]

>defensively, the Orioles will suffer

 

Yep. But very few are saying it.