How Can the Blue Jays Adjust Their Approach To Overcome Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

[Bryan Jaeger]

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been outstanding this postseason, allowing no more than one earned run in three of his four outings. In his last two, Game 2 of the NLCS and Game 2 of the World Series, he threw a one-run complete game both times, with a combined total of just one walk and one home run allowed. Against Milwaukee, he allowed three hits and struck out seven; against Toronto, he allowed four hits and struck out eight.

Yamamoto had a 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the regular season. So, if the Blue Jays want to win their first World Series since 1993 tonight, they must solve a problem few teams have figured out. This team has persevered despite injuries, slumps, and inexperienced players all season, so we know the Jays have the determination to give Yamamoto a challenging game.

To get Yamamoto out early, the Blue Jays should focus on extending at-bats and working deep into counts. In Game 2, Yamamoto retired his last 20 hitters in a row by mixing pitches and staying efficient. Notably, Blue Jays hitters reached base early in the first inning but failed to capitalize, striking out twice and lining out to end the frame. Yamamoto relied on his splitter and curveball, using the curve to finish four of eight strikeouts and the splitter for six of 17 whiffs. If the Jays are patient and selective, that may cause him to throw more pitches and make some mistakes.

Game 2 was Yamamoto's first career start versus Toronto. Facing a team for a second time, especially days later, is difficult for any pitcher. The Blue Jays should try to show a little more discipline at the plate, as their 8.3% walk rate in the playoffs is on the lower end. With the World Series at stake, manager Dave Roberts may go to his bullpen more quickly if the Blue Jays can get to Yamamoto and score early. In Game 5, the Blue Jays opened with consecutive home runs by Davis Schneider and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (the first time in World Series history that has happened to start a game). Despite Snell's 1.17 home ERA, Toronto managed five runs against him, earning four walks and getting six hits.

A few runs may be all the Blue Jays need to win against Yamamoto because the Dodgers' offense has struggled. In their three losses in the series, they scored a combined seven runs (four were in Game 1). The Dodgers attempted to shake up their lineup in Game 5 by replacing struggling Andy Pages, dropping Mookie Betts from the two-hole to the three, and moving Will Smith up to second. That move led to only four hits and 15 strikeouts (everyone in the lineup struck out at least once).

For the Blue Jays to win the Commissioner's Trophy and avoid a Game 7, they must focus on breaking through against Yamamoto early and then attacking a vulnerable Dodgers bullpen. While Yamamoto has dominated all year, the Blue Jays' resilience and offensive discipline could be the key to finally solving one of baseball's toughest challenges — and clinching a historic championship.

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